You have lineup questions, we have lineup answers -- at least we hope so. Start 'Em, Sit 'Em is here to help fantasy managers make difficult roster decisions. And you know what is a good move? Starting Justin Jefferson. But that's too obvious, so you won't see such simple analysis here. Instead, we're exploring more debatable situations. And if you can't find a player you are looking for, please check out the latest NFL Fantasy lineup rankings. Unless otherwise noted, all stats come from NFL Pro, Next Gen Stats or NFL Research.
Start 'Em
I wrote earlier this season that Nabers was a weekly must-start. Does that hold true now that the Giants have benched Daniel Jones for Tommy DeVito? Well, DeVito actually put up slightly better numbers last season than Jones did in 2024 -- and he was much more effective than Jones as a deep thrower. In 2023, DeVito attempted 13 throws of 20-plus air yards, completing six for a completion rate of 46.2 precent, more than double Jones' on such throws this season (six-of-29 for a rate of 20.7%). DeVito's passer rating on deep balls in 2023 (92.6) also easily outpaced Jones' in 2024 (66.7). If DeVito can put up a superior deep ball, that would elevate Nabers. Plus, the Bucs have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to WRs. Continue to keep Nabers in your lineups.
Pickens did not have the massive blow-up game I thought he would in Week 11, but he still grabbed eight catches for 89 yards, good for 16.9 fantasy points -- which has become a typical line for Pickens since Russell Wilson took over. In four games with Wilson, the receiver has averaged 94 receiving yards and 17.7 FPPG. He also has a 38 percent first-read rate in that span, the fifth highest in the NFL, per Fantasy Points Data. That is a receiver you start weekly. Cleveland has allowed the fifth-most yards on deep passes to receivers, as well as the third-highest passer rating on all passes to the position this season. Pickens' floor is too high with Wilson -- and I do not think we have seen a ceiling game yet. That could come this week. That said, make sure to check in on the weather report, with possible snow in the forecast in Cleveland; if it looks like conditions will be poor, pivot to another option.
Jennings needed just two games (in Weeks 10 and 11) since returning from injury to become a must-start option in fantasy. With no Brandon Aiyuk on the field in those contests, Jennings led the 49ers in targets, catches and receiving yards, and he posted a 41 percent first-read rate in that span, the third-best in the NFL, per Fantasy Points Data. His averages in those two contests plus the one game he appeared in that Deebo Samuel missed (Week 3) are encouraging: 11.3 targets and 29.3 FPPG. Jennings has clear chemistry with QB Brock Purdy. The Packers have been tough on opposing receivers lately, but that won't scare me away from Jennings' elite volume and production.
In his last two games, Smith-Njigba has racked up 24 targets, 17 catches, 290 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns while averaging 29.4 FPPG. Over his past seven outings, JSN has averaged 9.3 targets per game. He appears to have firmly surpassed Tyler Lockett in the Seattle receiver pecking order, and he can easily co-exist with DK Metcalf, since the Seahawks pass on 64.5 percent of their plays, the fourth-highest rate in the league. Plus, the Cards' defense is just in middle of the pack against receivers -- and Geno Smith has thrown multiple passing touchdowns in three straight against Arizona. You've got to roll with JSN, given how he's been playing.
McConkey is coming off his best game of the season -- against the Bengals on Sunday, he compiled nine targets, six catches and 123 receiving yards, marking the second time in four outings that he cleared the century mark. He consistently sees around seven targets per game, and this week, he's in for a fantastic matchup. The Ravens have allowed the most yards, touchdowns and FPPG to receivers this season. Johnston is a bit more boom-or-bust than McConkey, but Johnston was targeted eight times Sunday, with four of those being deep throws. Baltimore has allowed the third-most yards on deep passes this season. Johnston also has scored a touchdown in three straight. With six teams on bye, he is in play. Both McConkey and Johnston had a 32 percent first-read rate last week, per Fantasy Points Data.
Last week certainly marked a step in the right direction for the Bears offense, and Moore finished with 13.7 fantasy points, catching all seven of his targets for 62 yards. This week, he gets to face the Vikings, who have allowed the fifth-most passing yards and third-most FPPG to WRs. Like Johnston above, Moore is worth a look, what with all the teams on a bye this week. His teammate Rome Odunze, who had 10 targets against the Packers, is a sleeper and bye-week replacement option.
Sit 'Em
I promise I am not trying to pick on Waddle. He has been included in this column multiple times because he is a big-name receiver who remains on a ton of fantasy rosters. You might even try to talk yourself into starting him this week, because he has a good matchup against the Patriots. But he's failed to do much with good matchups before -- in fact, he has not scored double-digit fantasy points since Week 1, and he's logged three targets or fewer in three of his past five games. There is still hope Waddle can break out of this slump; after all, Dolphins tight end Jonnu Smith just scored a month’s worth of fantasy points last week. Until we see more signs of life from Waddle, though, you must sit him.
I believe Meyers is overlooked in fantasy football; he has shown to be a reliable volume option who generally brings a safe floor. The problem against the Broncos is that they have the kind of defense that lowers floors for opposing receivers. Denver ranks in the bottom 10 in yards allowed to the position, having yielded just six receiving touchdowns and the third-fewest FPPG to WRs. Plus, since Davante Adams left, Meyers has run about 70 percent of his routes out wide, meaning he could see a lot of Patrick Surtain. That is enough for me to get away from him this week.
Addison had a nice fantasy game last week, and he's posted 15 or more fantasy points three times this season -- but he needed a touchdown to hit that benchmark each time. Every time he's failed to score a touchdown, he also ended up with single-digit fantasy points. He has four games with seven or fewer fantasy points this season, so the floor is low. Now he faces the Bears, who are a tough matchup for receivers, having allowed the fewest FPPG, sixth-fewest yards and just six touchdowns to the position. You can get away from Addison in this one.
It's just not happening for the Anthony Richardson-Michael Pittman Jr. combo this season. In the six games that Richardson started and finished, Pittman is averaging 6.9 FPPG. He has been held to single digits in all six. Richardson has found more success throwing to Josh Downs and Alec Pierce. The Lions have allowed a lot of yards to receivers, largely because teams are always in catch-up mode against them, but they have given up just six TDs to the position, the third fewest in the NFL. Pittman is closer to droppable than startable right now.
Six. That is the number of yards Johnson has gained in three games with the Ravens, during which he played 30, 8 and 19 percent of the team's offensive snaps. He has just four targets and one catch. I thought perhaps after Baltimore's mini-bye, we would see evidence that he's acclimated to the offense, but that was not the case in Week 11. The Chargers rank in the middle of the pack against receivers, but it does not matter. There is no way you can trust Johnson right now, even with six teams on bye. Until he's used more, you cannot start him.
