You have lineup questions, we have lineup answers -- at least we hope so. Start 'Em, Sit 'Em is here to help fantasy managers make difficult roster decisions. And you know what is a good move? Starting Ja'Marr Chase. But that's too obvious, so you won't see such simple analysis here. Instead, we're exploring more debatable situations. And if you can't find a player you are looking for, please check out the latest NFL Fantasy lineup rankings. Unless otherwise noted, all stats come from NFL Pro, Next Gen Stats or NFL Research.
Start 'Em
Forget surpassing Tyler Lockett. Smith-Njigba is now rivaling DK Metcalf for top receiver in Seattle. He has been the Seahawks' leading receiver in four straight games, and his 367 yards over his last three games is the second-most in a three-game span in franchise history. Anyone who watched him at Ohio State has been awaiting his breakout, and it's finally here. This week's matchup may look tough on paper, but the Jets play man at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL. JSN not only leads the Seahawks in yards against man coverage but also ranks among the top 10 in the NFL. New York's defense has struggled against slot receivers. Smith-Njigba has been far too good to get away from.
Jennings led the 49ers in targets (seven) last week even without quarterback Brock Purdy, who could return from his shoulder injury on Sunday. This season, in games with Purdy and without either Deebo Samuel or Brandon Aiyuk, the veteran has put up video game-like numbers (11.3 targets, 29.3 fantasy points per game). Jennings could do well against the Bills despite this being a tough matchup on paper. Why? The Bills use split safety coverage at the third-highest rate in the NFL, and Jennings leads the 49ers and is sixth league-wide in yards against that coverage. He also leads the team in yards against zone coverage, which the Bills use at the sixth-highest rate. Jennings is a must-start if Purdy plays, but I think he remains in play even if San Francisco’s QB1 remains sidelined.
After a couple of down games, the rookie bounced back prior to the bye with 13.6 fantasy points against the Lions in Week 11. Thomas gets a chance to build on that this week against the Texans, who have allowed the fourth-most yards and most touchdowns to receivers since Week 8. DeMeco Ryans’ unit also plays zone at an above-average rate, and Thomas is eighth in the NFL in yards against that coverage. In their first meeting back in Week 4, Thomas exploded for 21.9 fantasy points in Houston. With the Jags ranking 25th in scoring, there is a good chance they could be in catch-up mode -- with Mac Jones or Trevor Lawrence at QB. That keeps Thomas in play this week.
Mooney disappointed before the bye week, but he has been largely reliable this season. He has a bounce-back opportunity against the Chargers, who have allowed the second-most yards and most touchdowns to WRs since Week 8. They use split safety coverage at the second-highest rate and zone coverage the third-most in the NFL. Mooney has a 132.6 passer rating when targeted against split safety coverage, the highest among wideouts with at least 30 targets this season. He also leads the Falcons and is 12th among receivers in yards against zone in 2024. He's in play.
More start options: Denver's Courtland Sutton (vs. Browns); Pittsburgh's George Pickens (at Bengals); Philadelphia's DeVonta Smith (at Ravens); Cleveland's Jerry Jeudy (at Broncos); Las Vegas' Jakobi Meyers (at Chiefs).
Sit 'Em
In a favorable matchup last week, Harrison scored less than eight fantasy points for the fifth time in his last seven games. This week’s matchup also looks encouraging, but it could be a trap. The Vikings play split safety coverage at the highest rate in the NFL, and Kyler Murray has struggled against it, ranking 27th in passer rating and 23rd in EPA. The rookie receiver has a 78.8 passer rating when targeted and 52 percent catch rate against split safety coverage. Plus, tight end Trey McBride has been Murray’s preferred option against zone, which the Vikings use at a high rate. Harrison isn’t a must-sit, but if you have another option, take it.
I had high hopes for Hopkins after he had a two-touchdown night against the Bucs in Week 9. Since then, he has averaged just five targets, 40 yards and 10 fantasy points per game. His 54 air yards or less in each game isn’t great, and rookie Xavier Worthy is starting to take off. Now Hopkins will face the Raiders, who have allowed the fifth-fewest yards to receivers since Week 8. Furthermore, they have allowed the fewest yards to receivers aligning out wide, and Hopkins runs 73 percent of his routes on the perimeter. Given the recent usage, the matchup and with no teams on a bye, it’s fine to get away from Hopkins.
We have been waiting for Waddle to have a big fantasy performance, and boy, did it happen in Week 12, with the fifth-year receiver posting 144 yards and a TD. If you sat him last week (per my suggestion in this space), I apologize, but I’m certainly not chasing last week’s points. His big outing came in a favorable matchup against the Patriots, and he’s not so lucky this week. The Packers have allowed the fifth-fewest yards to receivers this season and second-fewest since Week 8. They use Cover 3 on one-third of their defensive plays (their most-used coverage), and Waddle has just 62 yards against it this season. This matchup comes on a short week and will be played in cold weather in Green Bay. Miami doesn’t have a history of success in those cold weather games, losing 11 straight outdoor contests when it’s 40 degrees or colder (including playoffs).
It’s just not happening for Johnson. He seems to get one or two opportunities per game, and he hasn’t been able to take advantage of them. His participation has continued to decline since Baltimore acquired him -- playing just eight percent of offensive snaps last week. In four games with the Ravens, he has one catch for six yards. He is closer to droppable than starter status -- and I am a huge fan of his. Don’t start him in this matchup.
