This happens every fantasy season. You draft a guy who you have nothing but high hopes for. Be it Hakeem Nicks, Darren McFadden, et al. And by the end of the season, you have your fantasy season hinged on a guy you drafted in the later rounds, or even better, picked up off the waiver wire.
And 2012 seemed to have more of the latter-type of players than ever before. No doubt, all of these guys are going to repeat this year, right? Well, not so fast. That's similar thinking to when you were hanging out at parties about a decade ago and thought "Tubthumping" by Chumbawamba was going to be a hit for years!
All right, nobody thought that. But it's still kind of fun when somebody requests it at weddings.
What's the point of all of this? I don't know. But let's take a look at last year's one-year wonders and see if they can do it again.
Robert Griffin III, QB, Washington Redskins:RG3 had some trouble with his knee, but still finished in the top five among fantasy quarterbacks.
Verdict: Real Deal.RG3 has dealt with knee injuries before and he's going to come back strong this year. We shouldn't look at Adrian Peterson and think everybody can rally like he did. But RG3 is a special athlete. The only thing that could be a concern is the turf at FedEx Field. Can you fix that already? Thanks.
Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts: Luck was a top 10 fantasy quarterback last year and even scored more points than veteran guys like Matthew Stafford.
Verdict: Real Deal. Luck will no doubt miss offensive coordinator Bruce Arians who leaves for Arizona. But he will have some familiarity with Pep Harris, whose West Coast scheme should help him cut down on the interceptions. Luck also isn't given enough credit for being able to run the ball.
Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks: Wilson was one of the deep sleepers in 2012 who turned in a monster performance and was very good down the stretch.
Verdict: Real Deal. Coach Pete Carroll said Wilson was a million miles ahead of where he was last year. I covered USC for the OC Register and Carroll never uses hyperbole. The Seahawks also added Percy Harvin which should make him better this year. I fear the Seahawks could take a step back, wins-wise, but Wilson should be as good as ever.
Colin Kaepernick, QB, San Francisco 49ers: He took the job from Alex Smith and refused to let go. Kaepernick turned the fantasy world upside down during his incredible stretch drive.
Verdict: Real Deal. Even without Michael Crabtree, he's going to continue to put up big numbers. Anquan Boldin should be able to pick up some of that slack, plus we just want Kaepernick to run anyway.
Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Muscle Hamster was unbelievable during his rookie season, as he finished third in points behind Adrian Peterson and Arian Foster. That's not bad company.
Verdict: Real deal. However, be careful of a slight fall-off if Josh Freeman continues to struggle and he's replaced by the rookie Mike Glennon.
Freddy Morris, RB, Washington Redskins: This guy killed Shanahanigans with one monster season! Long live Morris, who finished fifth among fantasy running backs.
Verdict: Real Deal. Shanahanigans is dead! But I do fear Jawan Jamison could eventually work his way into some of Morris' carries. But not enough to drive him out of the first round of your draft.
Trent Richardson, RB, Cleveland Browns: Richardson was solid for the Browns, a team without a ton of offensive weapons. Richardson rushed for 11 touchdowns in his rookie season.
Verdict: Real Deal. He's going to improve on his rushing yards if he stays healthy so he should be a better value this year.
Stevan Ridley, RB, New England Patriots: The Patriots produced a top-10 running back in Ridley who rushed for 1,263 yards and 12 touchdowns.
Verdict: One-year wonder.Bill Belichick is worse than Mike Shanahan when it comes to running back-by-committee. Seriously, LeGarrette Blount is going to be in the mix. Dad gum it! Why can't we have anything nice, Bill?
Randall Cobb, WR, Green Bay Packers: Tex Cobb took over for the injured Greg Jennings and never looked back as he had 954 receiving yards and eight touchdowns.
Verdict: Real Deal. The Packers are big on Cobb, as they let Jennings walk away to the Vikings. Cobb should increase his receiving yards, and his touchdowns should remain about the same. I mean seriously, he's got Aaron Rodgers throwing to him.
Cecil Shorts, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars: One of the biggest "who is this guy?" from last year. He came close to 1,000 receiving yards with seven touchdowns but his season was cut short because of injuries.
Verdict: One-year wonder. His quarterback is going to be either Blaine Gabbert or Chad Henne. He might be fine, but not for the price you'll overpay on him.
T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts: Hilton proved to be a fine option on the other side of Reggie Wayne as he had 861 receiving yards and seven touchdowns.
Verdict: Real Deal. He's going to have a great season for the Colts and will eventually pass Wayne as the top guy there. Maybe not there, but he'll produce enough points to be a solid No. 3 receiver.
Dennis Pitta, TE, Baltimore Ravens: Pitta would disappear at times (especially on Thursday nights), but he was still a solid performer for the world champs. Pitta finished with more fantasy points than fantasy stalwarts Owen Daniels and Vernon Davis.
Verdict: Real Deal. The Ravens don't have Boldin to go to in the red zone, so it's going to be Pitta who benefits.
Kyle Rudolph, TE, Minnesota Vikings: The rookie proved to be a solid option for Christian Ponder in the absence of Percy Harvin. Rudolph tied Jimmy Graham for the second-most receiving touchdowns among tight ends (nine).
Verdict: Real Deal. And you will get him late in your drafts, too.
Blair Walsh, K, Minnesota Vikings: The highest-scoring kicker last year was Walsh, who no doubt benefitted from Adrian Peterson's incredible year.
Verdict: Who cares? He's still a kicker. Even if he is the real deal, he's still a kicker and should be drafted as such.
Adam Rank has never won an award. For anything. We don't mean to be harsh, but it's true. You can follow him on Twitter @adamrank. Oh, and if you liked this (right!), check him out on the latest "Dave Dameshek Football Program". Which, come to think of it won an award. So Rank has won something meaningful. Yes, meaningful unlike this latest post. Am I right? But follow him on Twitter, please. He's taking us to lunch if he gets 25 more Twitter followers today.
