So here's how it's going to work. Every Thursday I'll post a "Buy Low, Sell High" column somewhere around this very spot, and the idea behind it is similar to the financial markets. Simply put, it's all about value. Week to week value, month to month value, or perhaps an asset that's being downgraded because of a teams performance that shouldn't necessarily prevent that individual from being a good play going forward.
Sell High
Kevin Smith, RB, Detroit Lions:
I know, who in their right mind gives up a 20-point running back when there's a dearth of them in the league? Yes Kevin Smith had 22 points in the season opener against a Rams defense I actually like quite a bit, and if you paid attention to our pre-draft coverage on NFL Fantasy LIVE heard me say was a great week 1 sleeper. Here's the problem with keeping Smith around. He's never going to have this much value again. Only twice, out of 16 tries last season, did a running back post double digit fantasy points against the 49ers, and they look to be just as formidable this year after completely shutting down anything Green Bay tried to do on the ground. So Smith won't have an impact on Sunday, and that will be followed by the return of Mikel Leshoure, whom the Lions want to be "the guy" at the RB spot. See if you can move Smith for a 1B/2A wide receiver.
After one big play, I received more inquiries on my @mattmoneysmith twitter feed about trading for Pierre Garcon than any other player. If you happen to own Garcon, I hope you won week 1 because of his 17-point performance, enjoy it for a single week, now dump him on to some dope that thinks it's going to continue. Remember, this wasn't even one "good" game. It was one big reception. One catch for 88 yards, and three others for just 21. Garcon was targeted only four times, less than Aldrick Robinson and Santana Moss.
Again, why am I giving up on so many productive running backs when it was clear the Jets were committed to the running game? Because Greene was given the ball 27 times, and still couldn't hit the century mark. That's fine when the team has jumped out to a 30 point lead, but when the score is tight, and you need first downs, that's not happening. Greene doesn't have that extra gear, and were it not for the meaningless touchdown with a minute left in a 20 point game, he would have had a very pedestrian day. But because RB's are a premium, you can get a solid return right now. But act quick, because the Jets have the Steelers this week, and after Miami in week three, the two best Run Defenses in the league San Francisco and Houston back to back.
Buy Low
I was on the call in KC for the Chiefs-Falcons game, and to hear the way people are throwing Roddy White under the fantasy bus is baffling. This is a product of Julio Jones looking like he's got a shot at the No.1 WR ranking come week 17 this year, and White being downgraded because of it. Sure Jones had a monster 22 point performance while White managed to post just 9, but the targets were equal, and Jones was the beneficiary of going against a backup corner that simply couldn't contain Harry Douglas, let alone Jones. White still saw eight targets to Jones' nine, and he still posted a fantastic 14.5 YPC average. He'll put up 1,000 yards with 10 TDs, and right now you're likely to get him for 50 cents on the dollar.
While everyone is scrambling to get Pierre Garcon, Kevin Ogletree, and Randall Cobb, set your sights on Washington. He was clearly Jake Locker's favorite target in the pre season, and that's certainly carried over into Week 1. He saw more targets than any other Titans receiver (8), and was the go to receiver in the red zone ever trip to that part of the field. Because he only posted 53 yards to go with his TD, and thanks to the Titans offense not producing anything of note, you're likely going to snake him from someone that had him buried on the bench and isn't going to start him anytime soon.
So much for all the Titus Young hype. When the chips were down it became quite apparent who the No. 2 wide receiver in Detroit is. With eight targets, a solid 11.5 ypc average, Burleson should be sitting there in the "add" pile of your league, or available for pennies, as in your junk for someone else's junk. When Calvin Johnson joined us on NFL Fantasy LIVE he specifically mentioned Burleson when asked who else is catching passes up in Detroit, and I suspect if Matt Stafford is going to throw for 5,000 yards again, he's not going to tolerate continued dropped passes from Brandon Pettigrew and Burleson will get even more work.
