*NFL Pro*, available exclusively through NFL+ Premium subscriptions, offers fans access to nearly 100 unique player and team performance stats which are directly linked to All-22 Coaches Film, empowering fans with the most comprehensive platform for football analysis available to the public. Study the game just like the pros, navigating dashboards with advanced metrics and filtering capabilities powered from Next Gen Stats. *Learn more here.*
With 28 of 32 teams in action this weekend, players across the league have a chance to make their mark on Week 10! But some have drawn more favorable matchups than others. Check out which three individuals are set to post big performances on Sunday.
Saquon Barkley is having a year to remember in Philadelphia. Barkley has accounted for 33.8% of the Eagles’ scrimmage yards this season, the highest share by any player in the NFL, while scoring eight touchdowns in as many games, per Next Gen Stats. Philly’s crown jewel should continue to shine against a soft matchup in Week 10. With Dak Prescott sidelined due to a hamstring injury, the Cowboys offense might have trouble keeping up with Jalen Hurts and Co. That should allow Barkley to hoard a lion’s share of carries, especially if the Eagles race out to a lead and need to chew clock late.
Dallas’ struggles containing the run bodes well for Philadelphia. Barkley has generated +263 rushing yards over expected – second-highest in the league – while the injury-riddled Cowboys (who rank No. 30 in rush defense) have allowed opposing running backs to gain more yards than expected on 38.4% of rushes this season, the NFL’s second-highest rate. Per NFL Pro, the Eagles (No. 1) hold five-star key advantages over the Cowboys (No. 32) in seven rushing category, including rushing inside the tackles. Barkley might not flash another no-look hurdle on Sunday, but he should still dominate the headlines in his first taste of this NFC East rivalry. (Check out this All-22 playlist of Barkley rushing inside the tackles.)
Fantasy Outlook (from NFL.com's Matt Okada)
Not only do the Cowboys have NFL Pro’s worst-ranked defense in overall rushing efficiency, they’ve also allowed 27.3 fantasy points per game to running backs -- fourth-most in the NFL. In his two games against the Saints (30th in rushing efficiency) and Giants (31st), Saquon Barkley averaged 30.2 fantasy points. This has all the makings of another 25-point outing for the superstar running back.
Justin Jefferson’s strengths align perfectly with Jacksonville’s weaknesses. Jefferson is swinging for the fences as he has run a vertical route at a career-high level this season. Most importantly, Jefferson’s swings are connecting. The Vikings’ superstar WR has snagged a league-leading 400 yards on vertical routes this season, 107 of which came in Week 9 alone. Jefferson leads the league in receiving (783 yards) and in target share (33.0%), the latter of which is his highest career mark.
On the flip side, the Jaguars are blitzing at the lowest rate (15.8%) the NFL has seen since the Jets defense in 2022. This should allow Darnold to set his feet with time in a clean pocket and let it fly to Jefferson downfield. Against a reeling Jacksonville secondary – one that ranks No. 31 overall and dead last against deep passing, those shots will land and end with Jefferson hitting the Griddy. (Check out this All-22 playlist of Jefferson’s success on vertical routes this season.)
Fantasy Outlook
Unstoppable force, meet highly moveable object. So far this season, the Jaguars have allowed 20-plus fantasy points to four different wideouts, including 26 to Tyreek Hill and 33.1 to Nico Collins. Justin Jefferson has hit that mark five times this year -- more than any other wide receiver in the league. Minnesota’s five-star matchup advantage with Jacksonville’s pass defense will run primarily through Jefferson and brings huge projections for his fantasy day.
Christian McCaffrey is back. The 2023 NFL OPOY is expected to make his highly anticipated season debut on Sunday after leading the league in rushing (1,459) last year. And McCaffrey could not have asked for a better matchup. Todd Bowles’ Buccaneers defense has emphasized stopping the run as they have ranked among the top 3 in loaded box rate (56.4% in 2024) in four straight seasons. However, that strategy hasn’t yielded positive results as NFL Pro’s 32nd-ranked Buccaneers have allowed 4.6 yards per carry (fifth-highest) and +98 rushing yards over expected (second) when loading the box.
How do the 49ers stack up against stacked boxes (8+ defenders)? San Francisco has faced loaded boxes on 53.6% of plays this season, the NFL’s second-highest rate. On such plays, the 49ers only trail the Ravens in yards per carry (5.2) and rushing yards over expected (+161). Enter McCaffrey. San Francisco’s star RB averaged 5.4 yards per carry last season despite facing a light box (< 7 defenders) on just 19% of his carries, the lowest rate in the league. McCaffrey’s 75.7% playtime percentage ranked second to only Tampa Bay’s Rachaad White among running backs last season. Expect the 49ers to unleash their workhorse -- and for him to run wild -- in his return. (Check out this All-22 playlist of every McCaffrey rush attempt against a loaded box last season.)
Fantasy Outlook
Tampa Bay ranks a dismal 29th in overall defensive rushing efficiency, but they’ve also allowed 55 receptions to running backs, second-most in the league behind only the Bills. With Brandon Aiyuk done for the season and multiple other San Francisco receivers banged up, Christian McCaffrey is set up for a huge fantasy debut in this matchup.
