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The NFL playoffs have arrived! With seven wild card matchups set, which players are poised to have the biggest impact on the field? Check out who should dominate the headlines on each day of Wild Card Weekend.
The last time these bitter AFC North rivals met, Derrick Henry took on the Steelers and won. Henry, who finished his first Ravens regular season with a league-high +562 rushing yards over expected, recorded 162 rushing yards and seven explosive runs (10+ yards) against Pittsburgh in Week 16. The latter stands as the most in a single game by any player this season, per Next Gen Stats. Ten of Henry’s league-leading 100 missed tackles forced came in that meeting, as well.
Baltimore’s big-play back is a locomotive picking up steam. In each of the Ravens’ last three games, Henry has recorded at least 138 rushing yards. And after contact, Henry still ranks first among his NFL peers with 1,361 rushing yards. Taking a step back, it’s not hard to see how dominant Henry has been this year – even by his own standards. Henry’s 5.9 yards per carry and 47.7% success rate this season are higher than any of his eight seasons as a Titan. T.J Watt's Steelers are as tough a defense as they come, but Henry has already proven his mettle. Considering Lamar Jackson’s previous passing struggles against Pittsburgh and the absence of wide receiver Zay Flowers, Henry should be full steam ahead on Saturday. (Check out this All-22 playlist of Henry’s success against the Steelers in Week 16.)
Daily Fantasy Sports Outlook (from NFL.com's Matt Okada)
DraftKings Price: $8,200
The Steelers defense is stout, so the fantasy outlook for Derrick Henry relies heavily on volume. He had just 65 scrimmage yards on 13 touches in the Week 11 loss to Pittsburgh, but a monstrous 189 yards on 26 touches in the Week 16 blowout. Good news: Henry and the Ravens enter the rubber match as the biggest favorite of Wild Card Weekend. On top of that, Henry has averaged 22.8 fantasy points per game in the month of January, second most by a running back with at least five career January games. The stars are aligned for another 20-point fantasy day for the King, which is crucial with his top-tier DFS price point. He's as solid a lineup anchor as you'll find.
Saquon Barkley was so close to breaking one of the NFL’s most elusive records this season. With 2,005 rushing yards – just 100 shy of Eric Dickerson’s single-season record – Barkley sat out the Eagles’ regular-season finale. But that means he enters Sunday’s wild-card matchup with fresh legs. And Philadelphia will certainly need him. Barkley has accounted for 36.6% of the Birds’ scrimmage yards this season, becoming the only player in the league to account for more than 30% of their team’s share, per Next Gen Stats.
And Green Bay is well aware of what Barkley’s capabilities. In his Eagles debut against the Packers, Barkley thrilled fans in Brazil to the tune of 132 scrimmage yards and three touchdowns. Barkley faced a light box (six or fewer defenders) on 16 of his 24 carries in that matchup. The Packers might re-evaluate that strategy as Barkley rattled off a league-high 995 yards against a light box this season, the most by any RB in the Next Gen Stats era. Jalen Hurts is recovering from a concussion and Philadelphia holds key advantages over Green Bay in all but one of NFL Pro’s rushing categories, so expect the Eagles to do what they’ve done all season: unleash Saquon Barkley. (Check out this All-22 playlist of Barkley’s rushing performance against the Packers in Sao Paolo.)
DFS Outlook (from Okada)
DraftKings Price: $8,500
Saquon Barkley is not just the highest-priced running back on the Wild Card Weekend DFS slate — he's the highest-priced player at any position. Why? Take your pick. In a Week 1 meeting four months ago, Barkley tagged the Packers for 132 yards, three touchdowns and 33.2 fantasy points. Since Week 11, he's averaged 162 yards and a touchdown per game. The Eagles are heavy favorites over Green Bay at home, where they're 8-1 with a +82 point differential on the season. Barkley has to hit big to pay off this price tag, but if you find value elsewhere — at wide receiver for example — you can make it work for the best back in fantasy.
Justin Jefferson might have had a quiet Week 18, so he’ll surely be seeking vengeance in the final matchup of Wild Card Weekend. In a Week 8 matchup with the Rams, Jefferson hauled in eight receptions on nine targets for 115 yards and registered +47 receiving yards over expected, per Next Gen Stats. Perhaps most notable is that 94 of those 115 receiving yards came via intermediate targets (10-19 air yards). That mark was Jefferson’s second most in a single game of his career even though he led the NFL in receiving yards on intermediate targets this season (678) and his 3,308 such yards are 752 more than the next closest player since 2020.
But Jefferson can also beat defenses deep. Minnesota’s superstar WR led the NFL in receiving yards (549) on vertical routes this season and was the only player to exceed 1,000 yards receiving on targets over 10 air yards. Jefferson is a matchup nightmare all over the field and a big reason why Sam Darnold continues to target him in pressure situations. The Vikings QB-WR duo has shared 41 targets when under pressure this season, the most by any pair in the league. Any way you slice it, Jefferson is getting the ball on Monday night. After that, just sit back and enjoy the show. (Check out this All-22 Playlist of Jefferson’s receptions against the Rams in Week 8.)
DFS Outlook (from Okada)
DraftKings Price: $8,100
Once again, we're looking at the highest-priced player at his position, and for good reason. With Ja'Marr Chase watching the playoffs from home, Jefferson is the highest-scoring fantasy wideout available. He averaged 18.7 fantasy points per game this season and slightly exceeded that number with a 19.5-point showing against these Rams in Week 8 (without a touchdown). The key to the Minnesota offense, Jefferson saw 39% of the targets in that matchup, second most by any receiver against the Rams this season and one of nine wideouts to top 30 percent — those nine guys averaged 24.9 fantasy points per game against Los Angeles. You can expect more of that on Monday night, which means you can probably expect a vintage Jefferson performance.
