Last week produced the league's first playoff-clinchers in the Bills and the Chiefs and the race for teams to join them in the postseason continues on Sunday. Week 14 brings a few rematches, divisional bouts, and several must-wins that are worth tuning into.
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Sunday, Week 14 -- Top 5 games to watch
The tight race in the NFC West gets interesting this week as the top two teams square off for the second time in three weeks. The Week 12 matchup wasn’t all that exciting -- Seattle dominated the line of scrimmage, holding a rush-heavy Cardinals team to 49 total rushing yards and sacking Kyler Murray five times (most since Week 9 of 2022) and Coby Bryant topped it off with a 69-yard pick six. Murray and the Cardinals went on to lose a nailbiter to the Vikings last week which makes this a must-win to stay in the hunt.
NFL Pro Insight for Seahawks-Cardinals:
Cardinals cornerback Garrett Williams has allowed the lowest completion percentage (51.2%), completion percentage over expected (-13.7%), and passer rating (48.6) among slot cornerbacks with at least 25 targets this season. His 3.9 yards per target allowed are the fewest among slot corners since 2018 (Taron Johnson, 3.8). Williams has also allowed just 19 receiving yards on 13 targets in man coverage this season.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has lined up in the slot on 77.1% of his snaps this season, the second-highest rate among players with at least 250 offensive snaps. As a result, Smith-Njigba leads the NFL in receptions (57) and yards (693) out of the slot. Since the Seahawks Week 10 bye, Smith-Njigba has generated a league-leading +69 receiving yards over expected from the slot.
The Bears ended up in one of the most entertaining games of Week 13 in their Thanksgiving battle with the Lions. They had a chance to beat the NFC’s top team had it not been for a self-implosion in the final seconds, which at this point is a habit for this team. The blown opportunity on Thanksgiving ultimately led to head coach Matt Eberflus’ firing, and this will be their first game without him at the helm.
Meanwhile the 49ers got bit by the injury bug in Week 13 ... again. Their top two running backs, Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason, are now on injured reserve following last week's blowout loss to the Bills. Unless the 49ers make the playoffs, that was likely their last game of the season.
Both teams are at the bottom of their respective divisions trying to break losing streaks but are struggling to find the right way to do so. It feels like you can never fully count either team out because of their personnel, but you can never fully count on them either, which makes this an interesting matchup.
NFL Pro Insight for Bears-49ers:
George Kittle has generated the most receiving yards over expected (+25) and receptions over expected (+5.8) in the red zone among tight ends this season. He has recorded eight touchdowns while in the red zone, the most among receivers this season.
The Bears have allowed the third-lowest completion percentage (44.9%) and fourth-lowest completion percentage above expected (-9.4%) in the red zone this season.
Don’t let the discrepancy in records (3-9 vs. 9-3) fool you here. Let me take you back to a snowy showdown in Cleveland in Week 12 that saw the Browns snap the Steelers’ five-game winning streak. Just a week later we saw Jameis Winston throw for a franchise-record 497 yards (235 of which went to Jerry Jeudy), against one of the top defenses in the league. Meanwhile, Russell Wilson is coming off a season-high 414-yard, three-touchdown performance in Cincinnati. If the last few weeks are any indication, this will be a showdown (and rematch) worth tuning into this week.
NFL Pro Insight for Browns-Steelers:
When under pressure, Wilson has completed 10 of 18 downfield throws (10+ air yards), but only 9 of 19 short throws (0-9 air yards). He is the only QB in the NFL with a higher completion percentage on downfield throws than on short throws when pressured this season (55.6%, compared to 47.4%). As such, he has averaged 8.3 yards per attempt when under pressure (second most in NFL), despite completing just 44.6% of his passes (sixth lowest).
The Browns defense has generated the fourth-highest pressure rate in the NFL this season (38.5%), while allowing the 11th-lowest completion percentage on downfield throws on such drop backs (39.5%).
The Bills clinched the AFC East with their annihilation of the 49ers on Sunday Night Football, and they made it look easy. Now they face a gritty Rams team looking to sniff playoff air themselves, so it’s more important than ever to keep their foot on the gas pedal and avoid a loss.
The Rams’ win over the Saints earned them a three-spot jump in NFL Power Rankings for how rebounded and pulled away in the second half after a slow first two quarters. Whether that strategy, which is becoming a theme for them, is sustainable remains to be seen, but this is a scrappy team that can’t be ignored. The Rams have one of the best pass rushes in football right now, and an offense with loads of fire power. It’s simply a matter of being able to deploy it against top teams.
NFL Pro Insight for Bills-Rams:
Josh Allen has been sacked on just 10.2% of his pressured drop backs this season, the second-lowest rate in the NFL, trailing only Derek Carr (8.1%). He and Carr are also the only quarterbacks to have recorded more throwaways than sacks taken under pressure. On 128 drop backs under pressure, he’s thrown seven touchdowns (sixth in NFL) and 723 yards (eighth in NFL).
The Rams’ defense has recorded the highest pressure rate (39.8%) but just the fifth-lowest pressure-to-sack conversion rate (17.2%) this season. They’ve also allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game when pressuring the quarterback (47.8).
It is crunch time for the Falcons to figure out who they want to be this season. Kirk Cousins hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass in three games, though he has thrown six picks; let me remind you this is the same guy that threw for almost 800 yards and eight touchdowns against Tampa Bay this season. What was once a strong lead in the NFC South has now become a tight race with the Bucs whose remaining schedule isn’t all that threatening. Cousins should re-emerge eventually, let’s just hope it’s not too late.
After a few weeks on the outside, the Vikings have climbed back into the top five of the NFL Power Rankings. They are more vulnerable than their early win streak initially indicated, but nonetheless they’ve found themselves at 10-2 on a five-game run. They’ve got their work cut out for them in the next five weeks, playing the Falcons, Bears, Seahawks, Packers, and Lions. Because of their inconsistency, the Falcons can slide under the radar, but defenses beware if the real Kirk Cousins shows up.
NFL Pro Insight for Falcons-Vikings:
Cousins has recorded the fifth-highest completion percentage over expected (+5.3%) and the seventh-most yards per attempt (6.9) on quick passes (under 2.5 seconds) this season.
Cousins has also thrown 10 touchdown passes on such attempts in 2024, tied for the fifth-most in the NFL.
The Vikings defense has held opponents to the 10th-fewest yards per attempt (6.0) and the second-lowest completion percentage over expected on quick passes this season. Additionally, they have also allowed just a single touchdown on such throws over their last five games.
