NFL+: Top five weekend games to watch in Week 16 of 2024 NFL Season

Not only does this game have playoff implications, but it’s a rematch of a Week 11 game that saw the Steelers take down the Ravens by way of field goals (kicker Chris Boswell scored all 18 points for Pittsburgh).

The best football will be played when the Ravens – who are ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in passing and rushing efficiency on offense, respectively – have the ball, and the Steelers defense, ranked No. 10 and No. 4 in those same defensive categories, is on the field. With a division title on the line and elite matchups all over the field, this might be the best game of Week 16.

NFL Pro Insight for Steelers-Ravens: 

Lamar Jackson has faced split-safety coverage on a career-high 38.9% of dropbacks this season, though that mark still ranks as the 10th-lowest rate in the NFL. In Week 11 against the Steelers, Jackson faced single-high coverage on 77.1% of dropbacks (20.0% split-safety), his second-highest rate faced in a game this season. He completed just 13 of 27 passes for 184 yards a touchdown and an interception against single-high, resulting in a 48.1% completion percentage, his second lowest in a game this season.

The Steelers have played single-high on 68.8% of dropbacks overall this season, the highest rate in the NFL.

As much as both of these teams are known for their offense, it’s the Texans and Chiefs' defenses that make this game so interesting. The Chiefs’ run defense is allowing under 100 rushing yards per game and under 4 yards per carry, both of which rank in the top five in the league. They face a touchdown machine named Joe Mixon this week who should test them.

Meanwhile, the Texans defense is ranked in the top 10 in every pass defense category on NFL Pro and has held opposing offenses to under 200 passing yards per game. They rank third in pressure rate (38.2%) and sack rate (8.3%) which should make the trenches a battleground this week as the Chiefs offensive line is ranked ninth in pressure rate. Although the Chiefs offense hasn’t been as dominant as we’ve seen in recent years, if anyone can pick apart a sound defense, it’s Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid.

NFL Pro Insight for Texans-Chiefs: 

Patrick Mahomes has scrambled to run 32 times this season, recording 284 yards, a touchdown and 19 first downs (tied for fourth in the NFL). His average of 8.9 yards per scramble is the seventh best among quarterbacks with at least 10 scrambles this season. The Texans have allowed the fifth-most yards per scramble this season (9.2).

This is another game with playoff implications as a win for Philadelphia clinches the NFC East.

In Week 11, we saw Philly dismantle Washington’s run defense to the tune of 228 yards. The Eagles have allowed fewer rushing yards in their three games since then combined, than they did against Saquon Barkley and Co. in Week 11. Whether that was about their opponents or a change in strategy should become clear this week. But by and large, the Commanders have come a long way defensively since the start of the season. But can they hold the No. 1 team in the NFL Power Rankings and maybe the hottest team in football from clinching the NFC East? We shall see.

NFL Pro Insight for Eagles-Commanders: 

Saquon Barkley has averaged 7.2 yards per carry across 152 total carries in the second half of games this season (1,091 yards, eight touchdowns), the most among running backs with at least 50 second-half carries. He has gained +466 rushing yards over expected in the second half of games, over +150 more than the next closest player, driven by 24 explosive runs in the second half (four more than any other player).

Barkley carried the ball 11 times for 90 yards and two touchdowns in the second half in Week 11 against the Commanders. Of those 90 yards, 69 of them came before contact, tied for his second most in a second half this season. 

The Vikings enter this game after comfortably beating the Bears on Monday Night Football last week to notch their seventh straight win. They already have a spot in the playoffs so now they’re in a three-way race with the Lions and Packers for the NFC North title. They play the Packers and Lions in their final two games, so having a win this week would put them in a great spot.

The Seahawks are seemingly back on the struggle bus after a four-game win streak. Their Week 15 performance versus Green Bay might have been their worst of the year, and it was made worse by Geno Smith’s early exit with a knee injury. However, he is expected to play this week.

NFL Pro Insight for Vikings-Seahawks: 

Kenneth Walker III has been contacted behind the line of scrimmage at the highest rate in the NFL this season (54.5%, minimum 75 carries). However, Walker’s missed tackle forced rate of 36.6% is the second highest among that same group of running backs.  

The Vikings have allowed opposing rushers to generate 0.9 yards before contact per carry, the third fewest entering Week 16. 

These teams each enter at 6-8 with slim chances of the playoffs, but a chance to finish the year above .500 if they win out. A loss for either team this week would effectively terminate their playoff chances.

Both Miami and San Francisco have been too “off” this year to predict a record-breaking performance from either team, but the circumstances suggest it will be competitive. The Miami passing game will be put to the test against the seventh-ranked pass defense and the Niners running backs (those who are left) face a stout 10th-ranked Miami run defense.

NFL Pro Insight for 49ers-Dolphins:

Tua Tagovailoa has averaged a 2.42-second time to throw this season, the quickest in the league for the second consecutive season. He ranks top five in yards per attempt (7.1) and EPA per dropback (+0.25) on quick passes this season.

The 49ers defense has allowed the fifth-fewest passing yards (1,079) against quick passes this season.