It's that time again. The preseason's winding down, cutdown day to the 53-man roster is looming. You know what this means …
It's officially PREDICTIONS SEASON!!
Well, actually, I am a bit of a stickler for calling the outputs of my various models projections, as opposed to predictions. When you refer to something as a prediction, it sounds like speculative judgment is the main factor. But with my models, I strive to eliminate as many biases as possible from the mathematical framework.
Below, you'll find my model's projected league leaders in each of the major individual statistics. I ran 124,000 simulations for each of the 272 regular-season games -- 33,728,000 total sims! -- to get these results. I've also included some extra nuggets on players who, though they don't necessarily project to rank first, are poised to produce outputs that are interesting for fantasy and/or individual-achievement purposes.
Should anything major happen, like a big trade or a holdout carrying into the regular season, I will update my rankings. In other words, these numbers can change. But let me know how you feel about today's projections. Do you agree? What are your predictions? And of course, if you've created a model to project your own stats leaders, please send your forecasts to my socials so we can all see your receipts come January! Who doesn't love being right?!
Passing yards: 4,605
Despite missing two games in his debut season, Stroud still finished eighth in passing yards with 4,108. His six 300-yard games were tied for the league lead, and he set a single-game rookie record with 470 passing yards during a thrilling comeback win over the Buccaneers. With Stefon Diggs joining a pass-catching group that already included Nico Collins, Tank Dell and tight end Dalton Schultz, Stroud figures to have more higher-probability passing options. And with RB Joe Mixon joining the party, the ground game should be more of a threat, thereby increasing the projected overall production of the offense due to how defenses will be forced to respond.
REST OF MY PROJECTED TOP FIVE:
2) Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins: 4,592
3) Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: 4,524
4) Jared Goff, Detroit Lions: 4,513
5) Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals: 4,503
Passing touchdowns: 34
Mahomes threw for 27 touchdowns in the 2023 regular season, with just 4.5 percent of his passing attempts resulting in a score -- a career low, not including his one-game rookie effort. He also had a career-high 14 interceptions. In his defense, Kansas City pass catchers led the NFL with 44 drops last season, per Pro Football Reference, something the Chiefs will certainly look to clean up in 2024.
REST OF MY PROJECTED TOP FIVE:
2) Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals: 32
3) Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: 31
4) Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: 30
5) Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers: 29
Rushing yards: 1,398
McCaffrey ran away with the rushing title last season, racking up 1,459 yards to eclipse the next-closest ball-carrier (Derrick Henry) by nearly 300 yards. Can CMC go back-to-back? "King Henry" accomplished the feat most recently, in 2019 and '20.
REST OF MY PROJECTED TOP FIVE:
2) Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts: 1,356
3) Breece Hall, New York Jets: 1,289
4) Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons: 1,285
5) Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens: 1,269
Rushing touchdowns: 13
It shouldn't be too surprising seeing McCaffrey at the top of this list, as well, but David Montgomery's placement below could raise a few eyebrows. It shouldn't, though. First of all, Detroit arguably boasts the best offensive line in football. Secondly, Montgomery's body control -- i.e., his ability to keep his center of gravity optimized for speed -- improved last season, per computer vision. This produces more yards after contact and increases the odds of explosive runs (10-plus yards). And as we saw in 2023, Montgomery and the electric Jahmyr Gibbs both have the opportunity to eat in Ben Johnson's offense.
REST OF MY PROJECTED TOP FIVE:
T-2) Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens: 10
T-2) Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts: 10
T-4) David Montgomery, Detroit Lions: 9
T-4) Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams: 9
Receptions: 115
Yes, Lamb's currently holding out for a new contract, but I am not worried about his availability for the regular season. OK, I am not worried yet. My colleague Jane Slater is exceptional at her job, so if she thinks a deal will get done, so do I. That said, I do have some concerns about Dallas' offensive line, as well as the ground game. And to me, this will only increase the Cowboys' reliance on their WR1. Long story short: Expect CeeDee to see a TON of targets.
REST OF MY PROJECTED TOP FIVE:
2) Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions: 111
3) Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals: 108
4) Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings: 105
5) Garrett Wilson, New York Jets: 104
Receiving yards: 1,501
Tyreek posted a career-high -- and Dolphins franchise record -- 1,799 receiving yards in 2023. I have Hill projected as the back-to-back receiving champ, with CeeDee Lamb once again finishing second, but only by TWO yards. Excited for this race!
REST OF MY PROJECTED TOP FIVE:
2) CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys: 1,499
3) Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals: 1,487
4) Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions: 1,456
5) Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings: 1,444
Receiving touchdowns: 11
Lambs' skill and opportunity (SEE: the 115 catches forecasted above) drive this number. He's a stud who figures to command an enormous target share in Dallas' offense. But I'd also like to highlight one player in the list just below. Mike Evans, he of the 10 straight 1,000-yard seasons, appears to be flying somewhat under the radar in fantasy drafts. Per Fantasy Pros, he's currently the WR15, getting selected as the 35th player overall. Considering a number of factors -- increased chemistry with Baker Mayfield in their second season together, Chris Godwin moving back to the slot full time, Tampa Bay facing the competitiveness of a first-place schedule -- I believe Evans' red-zone prowess will indeed translate to a healthy number of scores.
REST OF MY PROJECTED TOP FIVE:
2) Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins: 10
T-3) A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles: 9
T-3) Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 9
T-3) Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions: 9
T-3) Garrett Wilson, New York Jets: 9
Total touches: 354
In this space one year ago, I pointed out that the 2022 version of McCaffrey exhibited his fastest burst (speed reached in first 3 yards traveled once the ball is snapped, per computer vision) since his 2017 rookie campaign. Guess what happened in 2023? He beat that '22 mark.
REST OF MY PROJECTED TOP FIVE:
2) Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams: 349
3) Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars: 347
4) Breece Hall, New York Jets: 337
5) Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons: 333
Total touchdowns: 18
I double-checked, and yes, five touchdowns is the biggest gap between Nos. 1 and 2 that I have projected in 12 seasons of forecasting this category. Side note: Jonathan Taylor barely missed making the list below.
REST OF MY PROJECTED TOP FIVE:
2) Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams: 13
T-3) Breece Hall, New York Jets: 11
T-3) CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys: 11
T-3) Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons: 11
Sacks: 12
Garrett has recorded double-digit sacks in each of his last six years, but he's never led the NFL in the category. According to computer vision, he ranked second in the league in double/triple-team win rate last season, behind only Aaron Donald. He also held pole position in second-effort win rate (when the defender gets effectively blocked then re-engages the offensive player) in 2023. Lo and behold, he won Defensive Player of the Year. One player who narrowly missed this top five: Montez Sweat, who significantly upgraded the Bears' defense after arriving at the trade deadline last season.
REST OF MY PROJECTED TOP FIVE:
T-2) Maxx Crosby, Las Vegas Raiders: 11
T-2) Micah Parsons, Dallas Cowboys: 11
T-2) T.J. Watt, Pittsburgh Steelers: 11
5) Nick Bosa, San Francisco 49ers: 10
ADDITIONAL NOTE: Preseason sack projections always look low because they are calculated fractionally on a per-game basis, then added together. So, at this early point in the NFL year, you should just look to the rankings and not worry as much about the actual sack totals.
Interceptions: 5
This is the category that annually contains the most noise. However, I really like the players my model spit out -- both the leader above and the contenders listed below -- because they all make sense from a strategic standpoint. Combining Diggs' playing style with Dallas' Micah Parsons-led pass rush, it's not hard to envision a healthy number of picks. Jessie Bates III had six interceptions last season, and the recent addition of Matt Judon to Atlanta's pass rush will only increase the star safety's opportunities. Riq Woolen had just two picks last year, but tied for the league lead with six as a rookie in 2022. Not to mention, new Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald has a track record of effectively deploying CB talents like Woolen. Geno Stone ranked second in the NFL with seven INTs under Macdonald in Baltimore last season, and despite changing teams, he stayed in the same division by signing with Cincinnati, where he'll be a key part of Lou Anarumo's strategy. Charvarius Ward had five picks last season, and the 49ers once again figure to be one of the true heavyweights in the NFC, portending a lot of pass-happy game scripts for opponents.
REST OF MY PROJECTED TOP FIVE:
T-2) Jessie Bates III, Atlanta Falcons: 4
T-2) Riq Woolen, Seattle Seahawks: 4
T-4) Geno Stone, Cincinnati Bengals: 3
T-4) Charvarius Ward, San Francisco 49ers: 3
