Yeah, buddy. Unlike my good friend Akbar, I like to make predictions that are actually going to happen. Rob Gronkowski is probably my biggest call of the season. I see him in that role Randy Moss played in 2007 when the Patriots wanted to send a message to the rest of the league.
Now I realize Gronkowski certainly isn't a sleeper. He might not have ever been a sleeper, either. But I wanted to use it to explain one point. Bill Belichick doesn't hate your fantasy team. At least not this year. Belichick and Tom Brady are going to look to average about 50 points a game. Honestly, there is no team in the universe, in any sport that does the "us against the world" thing better than the Patriots. Nobody. And when they have an actual reason to feel that way, look out.
So let's take the leap that Belichick actually does like your fantasy team. Let's dive into the running back position. Dion Lewis was a preseason favorite in this space, but the same typical hang-ups about the Patriots loomed. But they shouldn't. The Patriots welcomed LeGarrette Blount back into the mix this week and it was Lewis who still took the majority of the work. He was on the field for more than 90 percent of the snaps. He even grabbed some work near the goal line, which kind of shocked me.
So I'm going to head into this week cautiously optimistic. I'd play him as a flex guy this week. I feel pretty strong about him. The Patriots should game plan to run the ball against the Jaguars. If Lewis remains anywhere near that 90 percent clip, he's going to be a sure-fire RB2 for the rest of the season.
He's also nice option for daily fantasy leagues, too.
At least until Belichick changes his mind and goes back to hating our fantasy team.
All right, here are the rest of Rank's 11.
I picked this guy up, but should I start him?
Matt Jones, RB, Washington Redskins: He looked really good against the St. Louis FC this week. Which was a huge surprise. I truly believe Freddy Morris was some dude the current regime inherited and wants to move on from. He's like the guy at your bachelor party who is a cousin of the groom. He's a nice enough guy, but he's up to speed on the inside jokes and he really doesn't add much to the equation. But any time that guy says, "Hey, I'm going to take off and hang out at the pool," you feel a little bit relieved. That's the situation I see playing out here. Morris. Nice dude. But the current coaching staff has their own guy. So they will go with him.
I do wish Washington would send Freddy to another team, though. Shoot, see what the Colts want for him. See if you can get Donte Moncrief straight up or something. (I doubt it, but the Colts are also the same organization that sent a first-round pick for Trent Richardson. Shoot, you might get T.Y. Hilton.)
David Johnson, RB, Arizona Birds: Sigh. Listen, I get plenty of (stuff) wrong. But I implored you to start Johnson last week against the Bears. You need to ignore coaches when they say (stuff) like, "Yeah, we might split their carries. We want him to earn it." Whatever, dude. At some point the best players on the field are going to get the ball. In this instance, DJ was the better option. I mean, he has three touchdowns on nine touches this season. The Cardinals will go with him if they want to win.
My QB is hurt, who do I go with?
Tyrod Taylor, QB, Buffalo Bills: He had three touchdown passes against the Patriots, which hasn't proven to be a difficult task, and he added a rushing score to boot. But he was the first Bills QB to accomplish that since Jim Kelly. All right, I'm kidding. But the fact that you would have blindly accepted that is telling enough. He's also had at least 40 rushing yards each game this season. So he will start the game with a four-point base.
Blake Bortles, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars: And success against the Patriots is why I would like Bortles this week. The Patriots have allowed 22.01 fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. The good news for Bortles is that the Jags kept his jersey clean against the Dolphins who have a much better pass rush than the Patriots. (Yeah, I know I'm on the cusp of burning myself with this.)
Colin Kaepernick, QB, San Francisco 49ers: He's got a nice history against the Birds. He's thrown nine touchdowns with only one interception in five career games against Arizona. He's also averaged more than 250 passing yards in those games. But what we saw from Kap last week is what I expect going forward; the 49ers trailing in a ton of games and being forced to throw.
Other fun sleepers
Gavin Escobar, TE, Dallas Cowboys:Jason Witten is slowed this week and could miss the game. Escobar was targeted in the red zone last week after he caught a touchdown in Week 1. Escobar and Brandon Weedon probably worked together a lot on the second team.
Owen Daniels, TE, Denver Broncos: I've been burnt by him so far this season, so I'm going to continue to double-down on him until he finally hits for me. Yes, you would love to play poker with me. But the Lions are a really good matchup for the Broncos this week. Although, it would be very Peyton Manning-like for him to not throw it to the guy I've actually started on the Broncos. He's been on the field for 90 percent of the plays, he's due. And I will keep telling myself that all year until he scores. If he ever does.
Doug Baldwin, WR, Seattle Seahawks: The Bears are not very good at defense. They have given up like 86 touchdowns so far this year. Baldwin has recorded seven receptions in each of the first two games. It's saucy, but I kind of like it. I mean, I won't start somebody going against the Bears. Well, except for Carson Palmer last week. But that's my Wahoo's Fish Taco buddy.
Speaking of that, I owe Akbar Wahoo's.
#DangerZone
Quincy Enunwa, WR, New York Jets:Eric Decker is out. That's huge news for Brandon Marshall. But there is also opportunity for Enuwa. The Eagles have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to receivers this year. Ryan FitzMagic has thrown at least two touchdowns in back-to-back games. First time since 2011. You know remember 2011, don't you? "Bridesmaids" hit the theaters. America was sexy and they knew it. And RG3 was only hated by his Baylor teammates. Idyllic times.
-- You can hit Rank up for more advice or let him know how lousy his picks are on Twitter @adamrank. Don't be thrown off by his # wars, though.
