From the outside, it all seems to add up: a looming head-coaching vacancy, a non-traditional salary cap, and plenty of older, accomplished players. Are the Saints headed for a rebuild?
Yet, that's not the plan at all.
New Orleans isn't planning for an overhaul. There will be changes, and likely an effort to get younger. But they aren't envisioning taking their franchise down to the studs, just like they didn't plan a fire sale prior to this past Tuesday's trade deadline. With a roster they believe is far better than their record, one besieged by unrelenting injuries, the Saints believe in pushing forward, rather than stepping back.
There will be decisions, from quarterback Derek Carr on down. And nothing is firm and final. But this is the current plan.
The Saints play the Falcons today with interim coach Darren Rizzi manning the sideline in place of Dennis Allen, who was fired this week after a seven-game losing streak and a 2-7 record. A season that began with such promise -- with offensive fireworks and a 2-0 start -- has hit a nadir.
Yet it was noteworthy that, in Mickey Loomis' statement on the firing of Allen, the Saints general manager pointed to the "avalanche of injuries" that "took its toll." He praised Allen for never making excuses.
After speaking to sources informed of the Saints' thinking, there are several factors that point to a retooling rather than a full rebuild that would entail embracing a long process of collecting draft picks and losing in order to build it back up.
- For one, the Saints philosophically don't believe in blowing it up. They look at other, painful examples around the league of long rebuilds that took far longer than anticipated, some of which required several regimes (i.e. the Browns). There just isn't enough evidence for them that doing so is the best way. The best, most seamless rebuilds (the Eagles after 2020 is an example) include keeping good players, moving on from those with upside-down value, and getting more good players. That's why the only move they made at the trade deadline was sending Marshon Lattimore to the Commanders. They received plenty of calls on other key players.
- The first two games of the 2024 season, two blowout wins, stand out as an example of what the team can be. With Carr healthy and all their receivers and an offensive line that had its starters, this Saints team issued two blowouts. To those in the building, that's a sign there is more than enough talent to win. Depth must improve to withstand injuries. But in the minds of the decision-makers, that start was proof that there is a core there worth keeping together.
- The elephant in the room: Yes, the Saints are projected to be far above the 2025 salary cap (it was $255.4 million this past year, let's guess it's around $270M next year). Using that $270 million number, they are slated to be $60 million over the cap. But they can push money forward and easily get under with restructures to their top eight cap hits, including Carr, Cameron Jordan and Tyrann Mathieu. The NFL world's collective head explodes with discussion of the Saints' cap, with the belief that the franchise will have to implode eventually. They don't see it that way. Thanks in part to the Drew Brees window being open for so many years, the toll that the COVID years took on their cap situation and their refusal to allow good players to walk away, their cap numbers have become a curiosity. But there are ways to manipulate the cap that don't involve breaking it all down and still adding good players. That is their chosen path, and all indications are it will continue in part because they will continue to spend.
- The Saints will have plenty of decisions to make, but those decisions will be based on value -- not necessity. Carr is the most headline-grabbing, but here are many others. Does an older, expensive player warrant the contract owed? Is there a reduction planned or a release? In other words, the same issues all teams face. Does this player give the team the best chance to win?
The Saints pushed money forward when Brees was in his prime, still had a window to win their division after he retired, dealt with COVID and never quite reset. They believe that window is still open and that the talent is there. So, no, rebuilding is not in the plans for New Orleans.
