The new Sam Darnold refuses to crash and burn.
Admittedly, I've been waiting all season for an implosion. Not rooting for it, mind you, but based on Darnold's early career, it was reasonable to surmise that a downward spiral would come at some point. During his time with the Jets and Panthers, brief flashes always led to short circuits that caused catastrophic fires. Darnold couldn't sustain success. Even his one start with the 49ers to close out the 2023 season wasn't as impressive as some might have you believe -- it was a classic Darnold roller-coaster ride.
But here we are, having reached Thanksgiving, and Darnold is still chugging along with Minnesota, refusing to combust. Through 11 games, he's made play after play, keeping the Vikings on pace for a playoff berth and even pushing the one-loss Lions in the NFC North. Last Sunday in Chicago, as the Vikings' defense waned, Darnold waxed the Bears, generating his third career game with 300-plus yards, two-plus pass TDs and zero INTs. It marked his ninth game with a 100-plus passer rating in 2024 -- only Brett Favre (10 such games in 2009) and Daunte Culpepper (10 in 2000) have logged more in a season while wearing purple.
Oh, there have been moments where catastrophe looked imminent for Darnold. Weekly turnovers continue to plague the QB, who entered Friday tied for the league lead in giveaways (14). In the past, such gaffes would have unraveled Darnold -- but now, he's playing through them, most times overcoming them. In the two losses the Vikes suffered, he's turned the ball over once. The 13 other turnovers came in victories.
It's impossible to watch Darnold in Kevin O'Connell's offense and not see a completely different quarterback than he appeared to be even two years ago. Comfortable and confident, he's more patient in the pocket and willing to get through his reads faster, and he isn't rattled by the blitz. Darnold seems to be the latest in a line of young quarterbacks, particularly those drafted into wayward franchises, tossed aside far too fast by much of the NFL.
The stats back up the film -- and it's not as if these are the kinds of hollow numbers he might compile if he were operating a dink-and-dunk offense. Heading into Friday, Darnold's completion rate over expected (+5.8%) ranked second in the NFL among those with 200-plus pass attempts (behind Jalen Hurts' mark of +7.3%). He was tied for fourth in yards per attempt (8.3, with Hurts and Derek Carr), was tied for first in air yards per attempt (9.1, with Jordan Love and Brock Purdy), was second in air yards per completion (7.3, behind Purdy's 8.1) and ranked eighth in passer rating (101.7). His 20 big-time throws were tied for fourth, with C.J. Stroud, per Pro Football Focus.
Finally, after six seasons lost at sea, Darnold found the right ship. O'Connell has taken advantage of the QB's arm strength while giving him easy answers to the test. It's a dream pairing for the signal-caller (and it certainly provides hope to ex-Giant Daniel Jones, another discarded former first-round pick who landed on the Vikings' practice squad this week).
Now, Darnold must finish the job. With the Vikings sitting at 9-2, it's all in front of a quarterback who has revived his career in Minnesota after initially appearing to be a bridge to rookie J.J. McCarthy. However, the road ahead remains daunting, with five of the Vikings' last six games being against teams currently sporting records of 6-5 or better, including a final two-week gauntlet against Green Bay and Detroit.
It's undeniable that the former No. 3 overall pick has revamped his standing within league circles. He's validated any supporters who stuck by his side and made doubters reconsider. But the next phase of his trajectory remains up in the air. As one of many players headed toward free agency in the spring, how he finishes over his six remaining weeks of the season (and, perhaps, into the playoffs) will play a central role in how he's received on the open market. Will the 27-year-old convince a team he can be the long-term solution? Might that implosion come in December, forcing him into another deal as a placeholder somewhere?
With Darnold in mind, let's look at five players whose final six weeks of the season could lead them to paydays on the open market in March, ranked according to who has the strongest opportunity.
But first, let's clear up a few self-imposed boundaries before we get to my list. Players must be impending free agents. I included no one who was in the top 15 of Gregg Rosenthal's list of projected top free agents in 2025 -- anyone who made it there was already bound to get paid following a strong performance in 2024. And I did not include multiple players at the same position (we don't need a whole list made up of veteran WRs).
Onward!
For years, the NFL has been a wasteland for middle-class quarterbacks, with most contracts at the position being either big-money deals, rookie pacts or the low-cost kind typically given to cast-offs facing bridge duty. The extensions handed by the Seahawks to Geno Smith in 2023 (three years, up to $105 million) and by the Bucs to Baker Mayfield last year (three years, up to $115 million) have provided a more hopeful path for reclamation projects. And that lane is likely where Darnold fits as the No. 1 QB headed to the open market in 2025. Even with a good 2024 season, Darnold's journey is closer to Mayfield's than Kirk Cousins'.
With J.J. McCarthy in line to command the Vikings' ship, Darnold is likely to be on the move again. Is it entirely out of the realm of possibility that Minnesota makes a deep postseason run, and both sides then decide to give it one more year? No. But logically, a reunion makes little sense for either party. That would put McCarthy on the shelf for a second season, and Darnold would be eschewing a chance to strike while the iron's hot.
How the top of the 2025 NFL Draft shakes out will shape Darnold's options -- who will win just enough going forward to put themselves out of reach of a top QB prospect? The Raiders and Giants appear destined for a rookie QB. The Jets likely have an opening, but it's difficult to see Darnold wanting to return to the site of his mononucleosis hell. Tennessee feels like a promising landing spot. He'd fit nicely in Brian Callahan's offense; then again, the Titans' future depends on how Will Levis finishes his season. Cleveland and New Orleans have decisions to make at QB. Both of Pittsburgh's QBs are headed to free agency. The Rams are an interesting option if Matthew Stafford walks away -- going from O'Connell in Minnesota to Sean McVay in Los Angeles would be ideal for the QB.
Darnold has done enough to show he can be a viable NFL starter. However, his next choice is a big one. After spending two years in stable franchises, he should prioritize avoiding a return to disarray.
The 2020 No. 2 overall pick was traded from Washington to San Francisco last season, and after a disappointing end to the campaign, he took a one-year, $13 million prove-it deal in New Orleans. Young's sack total this season (3.5) might not be eye-popping, but pressure is production, and Young's pressure rate has been excellent in The Bayou. His 48 QB pressures ranked seventh in the NFL heading into Friday, and his pressure rate (15.6%) was a top-15 mark (minimum 200 pass-rush snaps). We know clubs cling to their pre-draft scouting reports, which should benefit Young. A smashing close to the 2024 campaign, where he turns those pressures into more sacks, could come with a payday at the end of the road. The season's final six weeks might determine whether Young gets a multi-year deal in the $18 million-$20 million range, or if he's destined to be a Jadeveon Clowney-type journeyman pass rusher.
I considered keeping Johnson off this list because he's done bupkis since moving to Baltimore. Other wideouts -- such as Keenan Allen, DeAndre Hopkins, Amari Cooper -- could similarly use a good season's end to boost their free agency profiles. But Johnson truly needs a strong finish before he hits the market, and isn't that the point here?
The 28-year-old clearly had $20 million talent earlier in his career in Pittsburgh, and he flashed it at times in Carolina this season prior to being traded to Baltimore. But lately, he's produced at a $2 million level. In four games with the Ravens, he's caught one of five targets for 6 yards. He's barely seeing the field, taking more than 11 offensive snaps just once in those four contests. Perhaps it's simply a matter of getting comfortable in the offense. Of course, we've seen other wideouts waste away in Baltimore -- and it's not like the Ravens have to get him on the field to justify the puny price they paid in the trade with the Panthers.
In the current receiver market, a productive stretch in the dynamic Ravens offense could boost Johnson's profile enough for him to get paid. If he continues on the current track, however, he's staring at a one-year offer, probably in line with the $7 million deal Hollywood Brown inked in K.C. last offseason.
Greenlaw's future is all about his health. If he hadn't suffered an Achilles tear in Super Bowl LVIII, the smashmouth linebacker would be gearing up for a big payday. The talent, production and attitude are all top-notch. He topped 120 tackles in back-to-back seasons (2022 and '23), and he compiled 44 tackles and two picks over his last six playoff appearances. Greenlaw is the type of player who elevates a defense from good to great. Boy, has San Francisco missed his presence this season -- as evidenced by the way they were just gashed in Green Bay in Week 12.
The 49ers opened the linebacker's practice window this week, a sign that he'll return to the field this season. Achilles tears are historically brutal on athletic playmakers, who usually need time to heal and recover. We often don't see players regain their full power until more than a year later. Will that be the case with Greenlaw? If he's diminished or suffers a setback, he could be looking at a one-year deal in free agency to regroup and then try the market again in 2026. But if he hits the ground running and solidifies a leaky Niners defense, someone will shell out for a difference-making 27-year-old.
We'll close out with another injury question mark. The fact that Chubb is on the field at all this season is a testament to his work ethic and drive. Anyone who watched him suffer a gruesome knee injury early in 2023 would have offered no objection if he sat out the entire 2024 season or walked away completely. Since making his valiant return in Week 7, he's proven he still has a nose for the end zone (three rushing TDs in five games). But unsurprisingly, we're not seeing full-force Chubb. So far in 2024, he's averaging -20 rushing yards over expected for a per-carry rate of -0.3 rushing yards; for comparison's sake, consider that he averaged +1.1 RYOE per carry for his career, prior to this season, per Next Gen Stats. His missed-tackles-forced rate (21.1%) is also well below his career norm (31.9%).
Again, none of these figures should be surprising. He suffered a catastrophic injury. But they set up an interesting end of the season as the soon-to-be 29-year-old Chubb heads into free agency. If he shows signs of rounding into form, it could portend a back-to-normal bulldozing 2025. The running back market last year was an interesting beast, with almost every move paying off: Saquon Barkley signing in Philly, Derrick Henry signing in Baltimore, Josh Jacobs signing in Green Bay, Aaron Jones signing in Minnesota, Tony Pollard signing in Tennessee and Joe Mixon being traded to Houston. Six of the top 10 rushing leaders changed teams this offseason.
Maybe those results will make clubs less wary of the RB market in 2025. Perhaps Chubb returns to Cleveland on a team-friendly deal regardless of how the rest of his season plays out. He certainly loves the city enough to make that happen. But given the Browns' uncertain future and cap situation, it's not a given. If he looks even like 75 percent of his normal self in the final month and a half, another team could view him as its Derrick Henry.
