For most of the 2024 season, Sam Darnold enjoyed a magical journey loaded with euphoric moments that exceeded every expectation set for the former first-round bust.
Under coach Kevin O'Connell, Darnold enjoyed a career campaign in Minnesota on a one-year, $10 million deal. The quarterback posted personal bests in numerous categories, including passing yards (4,319), passing touchdowns (35), completion percentage (66.2) and passer rating (102.5). He made his first Pro Bowl and helped the Vikings win 14 games. A signal-caller who initially seemed like a temporary bridge (at best) to rookie J.J. McCarthy had proven himself as a viable long-term starter over the course of the season -- until the final two games.
With the stakes at their highest, Darnold flopped. He completed just 18 of 41 attempts during a 31-9 loss to the Lions in a Week 18 game that decided the NFC North and the owner of the conference's top seed. He followed that up with a 25-for-40, 245-yard showing on Wild Card Weekend that was much worse visually than those stats suggest. Averaging a time to throw of 3.21 seconds, Darnold experienced a nightmarish postseason outing that saw him take an astounding nine sacks in the 27-9 loss to the Rams. In the biggest moments, Darnold failed to match the production that previously inspired serious discussions about handing him a highly lucrative contract in the offseason.
Now, the offseason has officially arrived for the Vikings, who will trudge into 2025 still licking their wounds while attempting to understand what went wrong. The answer, while seeming reductive, isn't complicated: It was Darnold. His play cratered at the worst possible time, wiping out the confidence and trust he'd built in his debut season with the Vikings. Now, Darnold approaches free agency with a wide range of possible outcomes.
Where might Darnold land? What will the compensation look like? Let's dig into the possibilities.
Another disappointing playoff exit has Pittsburgh considering all options. Neither Russell Wilson nor Justin Fields are under contract in 2025. Darnold played well enough through the majority of 2024 to present legitimate candidacy for the Steelers' job, and if they continue forward with Arthur Smith as offensive coordinator -- despite the complaints from frustrated Steelers fans -- the fit would make sense. With Ryan Tannehill at quarterback, Smith coordinated an offense in Tennessee that finished in the top four in scoring and yards per game in 2020, ultimately earning him the top job in Atlanta. He could produce something similar in Pittsburgh with Darnold under center, although the Steelers would need to add weapons to their receiving corps to truly justify such an addition.
I'll allow a moment for all of us to chuckle collectively. Get all your laughs out? Good. As preposterous as this might sound, the Jets are in need of a quarterback. They're not in a position to select one of the top two prospects in this draft with the seventh overall pick, and with Aaron Rodgers likely headed elsewhere (or to retirement), everything should be on the table in New York -- including a reunion with a former cast-off. Darnold's performance in Weeks 1-17 would have justified considering him for this job, especially for a Jets franchise that continues to wander in the quarterback abyss, and would've validated such a reunion at the right price. If Rodgers indeed departs, Gang Green's only remaining option is veteran backup Tyrod Taylor. Adding Darnold to this room would've made sense if affordable, but Jets fans also received two harsh reminders of Darnold's New York tenure over the last two weeks. That alone could be enough to convince the Jets the juice isn't worth the squeeze.
Yes, both teams in the Big Apple need a quarterback, and neither has clear options as of now, regardless of Drew Lock's brief moment of excellence near the end of the 2024 season. Darnold could be the quarterback Brian Daboll needs to prove he's worthy of keeping his job beyond 2025, especially after he was forced to trudge through three seasons with Daniel Jones under center. When equipped with a capable passer, Daboll can make magic with his offense, and Darnold is athletic enough to execute the coach's system. The veteran passer would need to improve his urgency in the pocket after finishing with the third-longest average time to throw in the NFL in 2024, but he'd join a team with a budding star at receiver in Malik Nabers. It's not a perfect situation for Darnold, but none of these truly are.
This is where assembling the puzzle starts to get difficult. The Saints are in a tough cap situation (again), and while they can free up $40 million by trading Derek Carr with a post-June 1 designation, they'd still be over the projected cap. If Darnold is going to fetch a decent or better offer, that would probably eliminate him from consideration for the Saints. If money isn't a hurdle, though, a new coach in New Orleans might like the idea of adding Darnold and marrying his offense with the quarterback. The Saints are another team that's a little light on weapons, especially if Chris Olave can't get back on the field, making such a partnership more challenging. But New Orleans doesn't have a long-term plan at the position, and at 27 years old, Darnold still has a lot of football ahead of him.
Las Vegas won its way out of prime draft position to select a quarterback, but still could end up with a top QB in April. If that's the Raiders' plan, I can't see them spending on Darnold, especially considering they still have Aidan O'Connell on the roster. But if they dig into the college tape and realize they don't like any of this draft's QB prospects enough to take in the top 10, they might consider other options. That's where a partnership with Darnold could materialize. This is a difficult pairing to project without knowing whom the Raiders will select to fill their head coach and general manager vacancies, but that lack of certainty preserves all possibilities in the moment.
Cleveland's experiment with Deshaun Watson has been an unmitigated disaster, with the QB's 2025 season now in jeopardy following a second rupture of his Achilles' tendon. Jameis Winston provided some thrills but also lost the job by turning it over too frequently. Dorian Thompson-Robinson proved he's not a long-term option, meaning the Browns truly don't have a clear path forward at quarterback. They're picking second in April's draft, but aren't guaranteed to take a quarterback, especially if the one they like goes to Tennessee with the No. 1 pick. If they instead take the best player available on their board at No. 2, it will likely come after they've added to the quarterback room in free agency. Kirk Cousins' history with Kevin Stefanski would make him a natural fit, but Cleveland would have to work out a deal that makes his contract palatable, particularly given the 36-year-old's downfall in Atlanta. Darnold's late-season struggles might scare the Browns off, too. If not, Darnold would fit Stefanski's offensive approach better than Watson ever has, but Watson's contract might prevent the Browns from offering the money required to land Darnold -- and that's if they're sold on him in the first place. There's no telling where Cleveland might turn under center, making such a pairing intriguing. It would be truly hilarious, though, if the Browns turned to Darnold in 2025 after passing on him with the No. 1 overall pick in favor of Baker Mayfield in the 2018 draft.
Despite calls for change, the Colts kept GM Chris Ballard after their disappointing finish to the 2024 season, a campaign in which they bounced back and forth between Anthony Richardson and Joe Flacco. Ballard admitted they need to bring in competition for Richardson in 2025, and Darnold could provide such a battle. They have $28 million in cap space to work with at publishing, per Over The Cap, making such an addition possible financially. Richardson could make a Darnold signing pointless if he cleans up his mechanics and proves he can stay healthy, but after being caught in a tough spot in 2024 because of Richardson's inconsistency and Flacco's age, the Colts owe it to themselves to consider veteran options.
Frankly, I find it hard to see this happening. Tennessee has Will Levis on its roster and will be expected to add to the quarterback room in the offseason. In fact, as it stands right now, the consensus belief is they'll take a QB with the No. 1 overall pick. If they plan to draft a signal-caller, there's no reason to add Darnold. If they're not sold on any of the top QB prospects, though, Darnold might represent the competition they seek -- although entering 2025 with a depth chart of Darnold and Levis would feel like a missed opportunity.
Alas, this feels like the most likely outcome after Darnold's disappointing finish. McCarthy is returning from a meniscus injury that cost him his rookie season, opening the door for Darnold's breakout campaign. The fashion in which it ended might tank his value enough to make a return to Minnesota possible, perhaps in the range my colleague Gregg Rosenthal proposed on NFL Daily: two years, $30 million. A $15 million-per-year contract for a plus backup is feasible financially, and the two parties have enough familiarity from the 2024 season to justify running it back. The difference, though, is Darnold would be returning as a projected backup. He's a reliable option and a nice insurance policy in the event McCarthy struggles or isn't able to get healthy enough to play. There is one concern, though: Darnold's return could create a controversial scenario like the one produced by the Nick Foles/Carson Wentz dynamic in Philadelphia following the Eagles' Super Bowl triumph over the Patriots at the end of the 2017 season. The Vikings don't need those headlines.
