Welcome to FedEx Air and Ground fantasy analysis. Each week, we'll highlight some favorable quarterback plays and a few running backs that could prove valuable for fantasy owners based on matchups, projected game flow, and most essentially, talent. With Week 8 in the books and another sample of fantasy points against data to work with, here are a few options to keep your eye on Week 9. These players might just win your week.
Air Analysis:
Andrew Luck vs. Packers
Don't look now, but Andrew Luck is quietly following up his lost 2015 campaign as the QB2 in fantasy through the first half of the 2016 regular season. He's averaging 21.03 fantasy points per game, and has consistently produced for fantasy owners even with Donte Moncrief and Phillip Dorsett missing a combined six games with injury. Both returned last week, but Luck struggled to move the ball through the air against Kansas City. Fortunately for his fantasy owners, he still managed 18 points thanks to his 60 rushing yards.
This week, Luck should be able to get back on track through the air. The Colts head to Lambeau Field and will look to attack Green Bay's mediocre pass defense. This year, Luck ranks second in the NFL in completions over 20-plus air yards with 16, second only to Matt Ryan. The Packers allow the sixth-highest passer rating (108.75) and the second-most touchdowns (five) on deep throws this season.
With weapons like Moncrief and potentially Dwayne Allen (ankle) getting healthy, Luck and the Colts will look to keep pace with Aaron Rodgers in what should be a shootout. Luck makes for a great upside play this week and fantasy owners should be watching for those deep balls.
Dak Prescott vs. Browns
For those struggling to find a quarterback this week with players like Tom Brady and Kirk Cousins on bye, rookie Dak Prescott makes for a solid streaming option against the Browns.
Prescott is averaging 19.06 fantasy points per game through seven contests. He's improved his downfield passing over the last four games too, as he develops confidence as a passer in his rookie campaign. In his last four contests, Prescott is 15 for 24 on passes of 15-plus air yards with a ridiculous passer rating of 145.8, compared to eight for 20 and a passer rating of 72.9 in his first three games. He's also thrown three touchdowns and zero picks on similar downfield throws, after no touchdowns on those throws in Weeks 1 through 3.
We also saw how the return of Dez Bryant helped Prescott last week as he peppered the wideout with 14 targets. Dez only hauled in four, but tallied 113 yards and a touchdown.
Dak and Dez should pick apart a Browns secondary that has allowed a league-high (tied) 19 touchdown passes by quarterbacks this year and is surrendering an average of over 20 fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers. Prescott has top-five fantasy quarterback potential in a cake matchup in Week 9.
Ground Analysis:
Terrance West vs. Steelers
Terrance West was the spark the Baltimore run defense needed. After averaging 3.9 yards per carry as a team in their first four games, West has averaged 4.8 yards per carry in his last three outings with three touchdowns. He's been completely removed from the Ravens' injury report, squashing concerns that he may be limited after he suffered an injury against the Jets in Week 7.
The Ravens face a Steelers defense that has been embarrassed by opposing running backs in their two games prior to a Week 8 bye. In Week 6, Jay Ajayi destroyed Pittsburgh with over 200 rushing yards by his lonesome. The following week, LeGarrette Blount rumbled his way to a season-high 127 rush yards against his former squad.
If the Ravens try to control the clock and run the ball more frequently to end Joe Flacco's insane 40-plus pass attempts per game streak (currently at six), it could mean big things for West, who has also been extremely efficient on third downs. The Baltimore back has averaged 7.0 yards per carry in crucial chain-moving situations in his last three contests. West is a solid RB2 option for fantasy owners needing a boost during a tough bye week.
Devontae Booker vs. Raiders
Booker was banged up against the Chargers last week, but powered through a shoulder injury. Realistically, he's the only real option the Broncos have in their backfield ... there's no way they trust Kapri Bibbs with a big workload.
The rookie has been limited in practice with a sore shoulder, but all signs point to him playing, and dominating carries for a run-first Denver team. In his debut as a starter last week, Booker posted 84 total yards and a touchdown on 24 touches. His 2.8 yards per carry average was not impressive, but the Chargers run defense is strong, and that sample size is way too small to judge him on. Booker had averaged 4.8 yards per carry on his 51 totes as C.J. Anderson's backup prior to Week 8, so the explosiveness is definitely there.
What's most intriguing in Booker's matchup comes from Next Gen Stats. This season, Booker has been most effective running out of singleback formation. He is averaging 5.2 yards per carry which ties him for sixth among all running backs out of that formation (min. 25 att). For context, before his injury Anderson was averaging just 2.5 yards per carry out of singleback, ranking him 30th of 32 backs who qualified. Oakland is allowing the fifth-highest yards per carry average (4.8) against running backs out of singleback this season.
A fantasy preview you can count on. Just like FedEx Ground -- fast and affordable shipping you can count on.
-- Follow Matt on Twitter @MattFranchise and like his page on Facebook
