Week 10 NFL game picks: Cowboys hand Packers sixth straight loss; 49ers roll over Chargers

• WHERE: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, N.Y.)
• WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | FOX
• MONEYLINE: Vikings: +152 | Bills: -180
• SPREAD: Vikings +3.5 | O/U: 43.5

EDITOR'S UPDATE: Josh Allen is in line to play against the Vikings after practicing in a limited fashion on Friday, NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported Saturday.

I made this prediction assuming Josh Allen is out with his elbow injury. Buffalo could be without multiple key players on Sunday. Von Miller’s running mate, Greg Rousseau, is dealing with an ankle injury and the statuses of several defenders are up in the air. Yet I still believe the Bills can win in a bounce-back game. Case Keenum can get rid of the ball fast and take the quick profits that Minnesota’s defense gives up. Miller and the rest of Buffalo's defensive players will be up for the challenge of proving they can win a game on their own. 

• WHERE: Soldier Field (Chicago)
• WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | FOX
• MONEYLINE: Lions: +130 | Bears: -155
• SPREAD: Lions +3 | O/U: 48.5

Are these teams trading personalities? The Lions’ defense has played with noticeably more discipline since a Week 6 bye, even if the Jared Goff-led offense is sporadic at best. The last month has been the most exciting time for the Bears’ offense since Jay Cutler looked like the answer, while Matt Eberflus’ defense has imploded since Chicago traded away its best players on that side of the ball. Funny how that works. It feels weird to say, but the Lions appear more balanced. 

• WHERE: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Mo.)
• WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | CBS
• MONEYLINE: Jaguars: +345 | Chiefs: -455
• SPREAD: Chiefs -9.5 | O/U: 50.5

Trevor Lawrence is coming off his best game as a pro, and this week provides a compelling litmus test. The Chiefs’ defensive personnel isn’t great, but Steve Spagnuolo's unit will test the second-year signal-caller's ability to throw against man coverage and get the ball out quickly against blitzes. Like most weeks, he’ll probably have enough good and bad to finish average. That won’t be enough to keep up with Patrick Mahomes. 

• WHERE: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Fla.)
• WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | CBS
• MONEYLINE: Browns: +162 | Dolphins: -195
• SPREAD: Browns +3.5 | O/U: 49

I appreciate the Dolphins bringing all of us back to the good old days of 2020, when points were scored at a record pace. My prediction here isn’t just based on Mike McDaniel creating open receivers for his team and confusion for opponents, two things we should see plenty of against the Browns -- it’s also based on a disappointing Miami defense with a scheme and secondary that have fallen flat, especially against the pass. That should lead to another shootout, which the Dolphins have become experts at winning.

• WHERE: MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, N.J.)
• WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | CBS
• MONEYLINE: Texans: +185 | Giants: -225
• SPREAD: Giants -4.5 | O/U: 40.5

Davis Mills could one day graduate to the current version of Daniel Jones: a calm enough presence who avoids mistakes and wins with play-action. Jones has the easier matchup here. Mills has to solve a Wink Martindale blitz package with a somewhat-healthier Giants defense. 

• WHERE: Acrisure Stadium (Pittsburgh)
• WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | FOX
• MONEYLINE: Saints: -125 | Steelers: +105
• SPREAD: Steelers +1.5 | O/U: 40

T.J. Watt might return this week for the Steelers, who could use a dose of good fortune. The arrival of this banged-up, sloppy Saints squad also qualifies. Turnovers, penalties and communication issues are hallmarks of a New Orleans team lacking an identity and suffering from poor coaching. Kenny Pickett should have more time to throw than usual while trying to show the Saints what they could have had if they had decided against trading up for Chris Olave. (That’s one offseason move the Saints don’t regret.) 

• WHERE: Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tenn.)
• WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | CBS
• MONEYLINE: Broncos: +130 | Titans: -155
• SPREAD: Broncos +3 | O/U: 39

EDITOR'S UPDATE: Ryan Tannehill is expected to start on Sunday against Tennessee, NFL Network Insiders Ian Rapoport and Tom Pelissero reported Saturday.

UPDATE: Ryan Tannehill's status remains uncertain, but the Titans are now missing enough of their best defenders (Jeffery Simmons, Amani Hooker, Bud Dupree, Zach Cunningham) that I'm leaning Broncos no matter who starts at quarterback for Tennessee. (Previous prediction: Titans 20, Broncos 17. Odds for this game are up to date as of 2:30 p.m. ET on Friday.)

The Broncos have the goods to make a second-half run. They boast the best pass defense in football and have enough playmakers on offense to believe the attack can be average, especially if rookie tight end Greg Dulcich continues to thrive. This game is destined to stay low-scoring, like most Denver games. My pick comes down to who starts at quarterback for the Titans. If Ryan Tannehill returns, take the Titans in a close one. If Malik Willis starts again, flip the pick.

• WHERE: Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
• WHEN: 4:05 p.m. ET | CBS
• MONEYLINE: Colts: +205 | Raiders: -250
• SPREAD: Colts +6 | O/U: 42

Jeff Saturday’s first game as interim head coach offers a chance at improvement. The Colts’ last-ranked offense, per DVOA, goes against the Raiders’ last-ranked defense. Yup, Las Vegas is that bad at getting stops. Chandler Jones hasn’t provided any oomph in the pass rush, while the secondary can’t cover. I’m not sure that will be enough for an Indy win, but Vegas as a heavy favorite in any game feels silly.

• WHERE: Lambeau Field (Green Bay, Wis.)
• WHEN: 4:25 p.m. ET | FOX
• MONEYLINE: Cowboys: -225 | Packers: +185
• SPREAD: Cowboys -4.5 | O/U: 43

There's a drive every week where the Packers' defense absolutely needs a stop and subsequently lets an opposing running game steamroll it. That drive could happen early against the Cowboys, a group that has gained cohesion up front. When they started designing runs for Dak Prescott in the red zone again, I knew they were going to be trouble for the rest of the NFC. Green Bay has new injuries (Eric Stokes, Rashan Gary, Romeo Doubs) to deal with, while Dallas looks ready to start peaking.

• WHERE: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, Calif.)
• WHEN: 4:25 p.m. ET | FOX
• MONEYLINE: Cardinals: +105 | Rams: -125
• SPREAD: Rams -2 | O/U: 40

EDITOR'S UPDATE: Cardinals QB Kyler Murray (hamstring) will be a game-time decision to play Sunday, head coach Kliff Kingsbury said Friday. In addition, Rams QB Matthew Stafford (concussion) is questionable to play and is "making good progress," according to head coach Sean McVay.

It's another game where the quarterback situation is up in the air. If the Rams are going to look like themselves again this season, they'll do so against a Cardinals team they've owned in the McVay/Kingsbury eras. Los Angeles' defense is the most consistent unit in this matchup and can win the game on its own, even if John Wolford starts.

• WHERE: Levi's Stadium (Santa Clara, Calif.)
• WHEN: 8:20 p.m. ET | NBC, Universo
• MONEYLINE: Chargers: +260 | 49ers: -335
• SPREAD: 49ers -7 | O/U: 45.5

The Chargers have done a good job stacking wins while so many of their best players are injured, despite not playing particularly well. That should end this week. Justin Herbert looked back to normal in Atlanta, but he won't have nearly enough time Sunday night because of the 49ers' pass rush. He also won't have the ball enough because of the 49ers' running attack. The Bolts weren't a good run defense before losing Austin Johnson to a season-ending injury, and facing Christian McCaffrey isn't likely to help.

• WHERE: Lincoln Financial Field (Philadelphia)
• WHEN: 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN, ESPN Deportes
• MONEYLINE: Commanders: +400 | Eagles: -550
• SPREAD: Eagles -11 | O/U: 44

The Commanders have won two of three Taylor Heinicke starts, with luck and an improved defense being the biggest factors. Heinicke regularly gives his opponents 3-to-4 chances a game to create takeaways. The Eagles have forced the most turnovers in the NFL while giving up the fewest. Washington, meanwhile, is tied for 29th in takeaways. In short: Expect Philly to get three extra possessions and roll.

• WHERE: Allianz Arena (Munich, Germany)
• WHEN: 9:30 a.m. ET | NFL Network, NFL+
• MONEYLINE: Seahawks: +130 | Buccaneers: -155
• SPREAD: Seahawks +2.5 | O/U: 44.5

Geno Smith wins in ways Tom Brady can appreciate: before the snap, against blitzes and under pressure. The loss of Shaq Barrett will show up for Tampa Bay this week because Smith is deadly when given time. Give the Bucs extra time and they are liable to call another first-down run for 2 yards. 

• WHERE: Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, N.C.)
• WHEN: 8:15 p.m. ET | Prime Video, NFL+
• MONEYLINE: Falcons: -145 | Panthers: +122
• SPREAD: Falcons -2.5 | O/U: 41.5

A stormy night is expected in Carolina, which might have Al Michaels wishing he could flex back to Sundays. The Panthers exposed the Falcons’ secondary only two weeks ago by throwing aggressively with P.J. Walker, but the better running game should win out in an ugly weather game. With Cordarelle Patterson back, Atlanta’s four-headed monster -- including Marcus Mariota -- could be the best in football.