Week 11 NFL game picks: Cowboys end Vikings' seven-game win streak; Lions knock off Giants

• WHERE: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
• WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | FOX
• MONEYLINE: Bears: +143 | Falcons: -170
• SPREAD: Bears +3 | O/U: 49

These teams are mirror images, built on dynamic running games that attempt to cover up their overmatched defenses. I trust Justin Fields more than Marcus Mariota to make plays in the passing game, but in a matchup likely to have few possessions and few defensive stops, it should come down to some bizarre play at the end. (Like most Falcons games. And Bears games. And football games in the year 2022.)  

• WHERE: M&T Bank Stadium (Baltimore)
• WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | FOX
• MONEYLINE: Panthers: +550 | Ravens: -800
• SPREAD: Ravens -13 | O/U: 41

The Panthers are 2-3 since Steve Wilks took over, with their three competitive games all coming against division opponents. The Ravens are well equipped to force Baker Mayfield into bad decisions and knock down his passes with their monster front. Baltimore’s offense, meanwhile, has shown more cohesion in its run blocking since Ronnie Stanley returned. The Ravens are now the team we expected all along. 

• WHERE: Ford Field (Detroit)
• WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | CBS
• MONEYLINE: Browns: +285 | Bills: -365
• SPREAD: Bills -7.5 | O/U: 48.5

EDITOR'S NOTE: The NFL announced on Thursday that the Browns-Bills game has been moved from Buffalo to Detroit due to a snowstorm scheduled to hit Western New York. Odds for this game are up to date as of 5:50 p.m. ET on Thursday.

The way to beat Buffalo's defense is to run on it. The Bills allow the second-longest drives in football on average, and the Browns are well equipped to move the ball. There’s an assumption Buffalo will bounce back to normal this week, but this is a rare game where the Bills' defensive line could be neutralized. That said, the fact that this game has been moved to Detroit because of a storm in Buffalo might strangely help the Bills. Cleveland's defense is poor in any situation, but bad weather would have possibly slowed down the Bills' offense in a way the Browns can't.

• WHERE: NRG Stadium (Houston)
• WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | FOX
• MONEYLINE: Commanders: -165 | Texans: +140
• SPREAD: Texans +3 | O/U: 40.5

Beating the Eagles on Monday and losing to the Texans on Sunday would feel very Washington. It’s a classic letdown game, and the Commanders' underlying numbers on both sides of the ball are mediocre, at best. Hence, the narrow point spread. I had the Texans winning this contest initially because they’ve been in nearly every game in the fourth quarter, like Washington. Both teams are overdue for some different luck, but "It just seems like something that would happen" is a spurious reason for a pick. Give Washington offensive coordinator Scott Turner credit for providing creativity in the running game and scheming open receivers each week. 

• WHERE: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis)
• WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | CBS
• MONEYLINE: Eagles: -320 | Colts: +250
• SPREAD: Eagles -7 | O/U: 44

The Eagles’ struggling run defense is a problem, especially with the upcoming schedule. That could include this game, seeing how Jonathan Taylor showed more juice last week than he had all season and the fighting Jeff Saturdays played well up front. Unfortunately, the Eagles are not the Raiders. Philadelphia’s run defense hasn’t been completely exposed partly because they’ve so often played from ahead, which should be the case for most of this game. (My son, Walker, made this pick, so don’t give me the credit when it’s exactly right.)

• WHERE: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, Mass.)
• WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | CBS
• MONEYLINE: Jets: +143 | Patriots: -170
• SPREAD: Jets +3 | O/U: 38

A Patriots sweep of the Jets in this season, of all seasons, feels too cruel for even Bill Belichick to accomplish. The point spread in this game is surprising because the Jets’ defense is so clearly the best unit in this game. The difference between Mac Jones and Zach Wilson is either insignificant or non-existent, unless the bye week somehow solved Jones’ deep slump. Until I see that, it’s hard to trust this Patriots team, even in a matchup that has heavily favored Belichick in the past. 

• WHERE: Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
• WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | FOX
• MONEYLINE: Rams: +140 | Saints: -165
• SPREAD: Saints -3 | O/U: 39

Matthew Stafford missed last week's loss to the Cardinals while in concussion protocol. Sean McVay expressed optimism on Wednesday that his quarterback will return to action in New Orleans, but the Rams can still absolutely lose this Bad Vibes Bowl, a 2018 NFC title game rematch that serves as a reminder of how far both teams have fallen. With Cooper Kupp hitting injured reserve and more carnage on the O-line, Los Angeles' last-ranked offense in EPA per play probably will only get worse.

• WHERE: MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, N.J.)
• WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | FOX
• MONEYLINE: Lions: +140 | Giants: -165
• SPREAD: Lions +3 | O/U: 45

If this pick feels disrespectful to the Giants, just look at the point spread. Jared Goff matching up against a blitz-heavy team is concerning, but the Lions’ offensive line has held up well against virtually everyone. Detroit can run and pass, while the Giants can only run. Having made incremental improvements since the Week 6 bye, the Lions’ defense now meets a limited offense it matches up well against. 

• WHERE: Empower Field at Mile High (Denver)
• WHEN: 4:05 p.m. ET | FOX
• MONEYLINE: Raiders: +130 | Broncos: -155
• SPREAD: Raiders +3 | O/U: 41.5

This rivals Rams-Saints as the biggest Bad Vibes Bowl of the week. The Raiders’ defense is so bad (dead last in efficiency) that it revived Matt Ryan and the Colts last week. Las Vegas also gave up 23 points to Denver last time around, a season high for Russell Wilson and Co. The Broncos have averaged 13.5 points in their other eight games. Denver’s crumbling offensive line is a huge issue, as is Vegas’ inability to create separation at receiver. It feels so much later than Week 11 for both of these teams. 

• WHERE: U.S. Bank Stadium (Minneapolis)
• WHEN: 4:25 p.m. ET | CBS
• MONEYLINE: Cowboys: -125 | Vikings: +105
• SPREAD: Cowboys -1.5 | O/U: 47.5

Have the Cowboys taken a step back on defense since Dak Prescott returned from injury or are they just facing better opponents? Much like the NFC East rival Eagles, they are susceptible against the run. That’s bad news with Dalvin Cook coming up, buoyed by a Vikings tackle combination that could mitigate the Cowboys’ pass rush. I still see Dallas as a more complete team with more playmakers overall, even if Minnesota's late-game magic could power the sun. 

• WHERE: Acrisure Stadium (Pittsburgh)
• WHEN: 4:25 p.m. ET | CBS
• MONEYLINE: Bengals: -205 | Steelers: +170
• SPREAD: Bengals -4 | O/U: 41

The Steelers came out of the bye able to run the ball again. That's a development that carries the potential to change the outlook on the rest of their season if it remains consistent. But I suspect it was more about facing a moribund Saints defense. The Bengals will be looking for revenge for their Week 1 loss, a game that required five Joe Burrow turnovers just to get to overtime. The Steelers will need something fluky like that to win again because Kenny Pickett isn’t showing enough progress yet.

• WHERE: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, Calif.)
• WHEN: 8:20 p.m. ET | NBC, Universo
• MONEYLINE: Chiefs: -260 | Chargers: +210
• SPREAD: Chiefs -6 | O/U: 51

This game feels like a reckoning for the Chargers. While I like what I’ve seen out of Justin Herbert since the Week 8 bye, there’s little reason to think he can keep up with Patrick Mahomes in a shootout. The return of Mike Williams and Keenan Allen would help immensely, but they don’t play defense. Mahomes is torturing defenses by moving them with his eyes and running more when he absolutely needs it. The cavalry (Joey Bosa) hasn’t arrived for the Chargers’ defense, a group that should get dominated up front. 

• WHERE: Estadio Azteca (Mexico City)
• WHEN: 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN, ESPN Deportes
• MONEYLINE: 49ers: -365 | Cardinals: +285
• SPREAD: Cardinals +8 | O/U: 43.5

The Cardinals beat the 49ers in both meetings a year ago, including a Colt McCoy start in Week 9. McCoy might get the call again, but it is San Francisco's quarterback play that has been different this season. A healthy Jimmy Garoppolo with a full complement of weapons is good enough to find mismatches, and there should be plenty against this Arizona D. It feels like the Niners’ running game is only starting to get in gear. 

• WHERE: Lambeau Field (Green Bay, Wis.)
• WHEN: 8:15 p.m. ET | Prime Video, NFL+
• MONEYLINE: Titans: +152 | Packers: -180
• SPREAD: Titans +3 | O/U: 41

Was last week the Packers’ Super Bowl or the start of a run? They might be catching the Titans’ defense at the right time, with key injuries and fatigue a factor. Tennessee’s better side has played 164 snaps in the last two weeks and now it heads out into the cold on a short week. Then again, the Titans’ run defense is vastly superior to the Packers’, and both teams will skew run-heavy. There’s every reason to believe Mike Vrabel's team is tougher.