Week 14 NFL game picks: Brock Purdy-led 49ers beat Tom Brady's Buccaneers; red-hot Lions top Vikings

• WHERE: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, N.Y.)
• WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | CBS
• MONEYLINE: Jets: +360 | Bills: -480
• SPREAD: Jets +10 | O/U: 43.5

Look for this to be a defensive-minded game, with both offensive lines’ weakness in pass protection short-circuiting drives. Josh Allen is better equipped to overcome quick pressure. Mike White is the X-factor. He is not the point guard he was advertised to be. White is closer to a taller Ryan Fitzpatrick with a bigger arm, unafraid to swing for the fences.

• WHERE: Paycor Stadium (Cincinnati)
• WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | CBS
• MONEYLINE: Browns: +196 | Bengals: -240
• SPREAD: Bengals -5.5 | O/U: 47

The Bengals have climbed back to the inner circle of Super Bowl contenders with time to spare. This game could strangely be their toughest test. After two stirring wins over fellow contenders, Cincinnati gets a Cleveland team that has beaten Zac Taylor’s squad five straight times under Kevin Stefanski, including a 32-13 game in Week 8 and a 41-16 contest last season. Luckily for the Bengals, they are catching the Browns just after their big downgrade at quarterback. 

• WHERE: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
• WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | FOX
• MONEYLINE: Texans: +1050 | Cowboys: -2000
• SPREAD: Texans +17 | O/U: 44

The Texans are switching back to Davis Mills, who should be grateful to Kyle Allen for making him look so much better by comparison. The Cowboys, meanwhile, can work on various inconsistent aspects of their passing attack and pass defense for a second straight week without having to worry about losing a game. 

• WHERE: Ford Field (Detroit)
• WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | FOX
• MONEYLINE: Vikings: +105 | Lions: -125
• SPREAD: Lions -2 | O/U: 52

As an inveterate Lions backer over the last month, it is a little concerning to see everyone else agree. Winners of four of the last five, Detroit has gone from underdog to favorite in this matchup since Sunday, despite having been a home 'dog to then-4-7 Jacksonville at publishing last week! All the sudden Lions love does make sense, though. The defense is playing with incredible energy, and that unit only needs to be average with coordinator Ben Johnson drawing up beautiful game plans for a Lions offense that is finally healthy. Jared Goff eats against zone defenses like the one the Vikings play.

• WHERE: MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, N.J.)
• WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | FOX
• MONEYLINE: Eagles: -320 | Giants: +250
• SPREAD: Eagles -7 | O/U: 45

Every Giants offensive touchdown feels like an upset. The offensive line loses matchups weekly, and Saquon Barkley is no longer breaking big plays. Darius Slayton and Isaiah Hodgins are doing credible work, but they are miscast as No. 1 and 2 receivers. They figure to be blanketed this week by James Bradberry and Darius Slay, leaving Daniel Jones scrambling for his life, per usual. At some point, teams that win primarily with scheme (like the Giants) get figured out.

• WHERE: Acrisure Stadium (Pittsburgh)
• WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | CBS
• MONEYLINE: Ravens: +118 | Steelers: -140
• SPREAD: Steelers -2.5 | O/U: 36.5

These are not your September Steelers. Since the team’s Week 9 bye, Pittsburgh is 12th in overall efficiency, second in rushing and seventh in defense. A favorable schedule has helped the D -- and that continues with Tyler Huntley likely to start for the Ravens. Huntley can play, but can the Ravens’ offensive line? Can their wide receivers get open? Lamar Jackson was struggling to cover up the team’s holes, and while Baltimore’s defense can slow down Najee Harris, Kenny Pickett has good options to throw to.

• WHERE: Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tenn.)
• WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | CBS
• MONEYLINE: Jaguars: +175 | Titans: -210
• SPREAD: Titans -4 | O/U: 41

Weekly Trevor Lawrence temperature checks have distracted from how poor Jacksonville's defense is playing. The Jaguars have dumped an incredible amount of free-agent dollars and draft picks into one of the league’s worst pass defenses, which should be a welcome sight for Ryan Tannehill and this Titans offensive line. Lawrence’s status is uncertain here, but I like Tennessee to win either way. If Lawrence plays, the score prediction should be adjusted to Jacksonville only losing by three.

• WHERE: Empower Field at Mile High (Denver)
• WHEN: 4:05 p.m. ET | CBS
• MONEYLINE: Chiefs: -455 | Broncos: +345
• SPREAD: Chiefs -9.5 | O/U: 44

Hell hath no fury like Patrick Mahomes, coming off a loss, playing against a franchise he’s historically owned. This Denver defense is stout, but the pass rush has declined thanks to injuries and the Bradley Chubb trade. It’s possible the Broncos slow the pace of play on both sides down to a crawl to keep the score relatively low.

• WHERE: Lumen Field (Seattle)
• WHEN: 4:25 p.m. ET | FOX
• MONEYLINE: Panthers: +170 | Seahawks: -205
• SPREAD: Panthers +3.5 | O/U: 44

This will be a tough matchup for the Seahawks. Carolina’s pass defense is playing at a high level, with Jaycee Horn and Jeremy Chinn’s return matching an improved pass rush. These teams haven’t been much different in overall quality over the last month, with Seattle’s offensive line, running game and young defense all taking turns slumping. Give the Seahawks a win because of their big edge at quarterback, but I don’t feel confident about it.

• WHERE: Levi's Stadium (Santa Clara, Calif.)
• WHEN: 4:25 p.m. ET | FOX
• MONEYLINE: Buccaneers: +158 | 49ers: -190
• SPREAD: Buccaneers +3.5 | O/U: 37.5

Brock Purdy, meet Todd Bowles. This is a challenging matchup for a 49ers offense that was streaky even with Jimmy Garoppolo behind center. Tampa Bay's defense can throw blitzes and run stopping at a San Francisco group that will have to trust Purdy to make plays. He can do it, based on last week's performance, and he won't need to make that many plays, based on this season's moribund Bucs offense.

• WHERE: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, Calif.)
• WHEN: 8:20 p.m. ET | NBC, Universo
• MONEYLINE: Dolphins: -190 | Chargers: +158
• SPREAD: Dolphins -3.5 | O/U: 51.5

Don't expect Tua Tagovailoa's struggles to continue. Even if Terron Armstead doesn't return at left tackle, the Chargers' toothless defense rarely gets pressure. These Bolts don't cover well, either, and Brandon Staley hasn't provided a schematic advantage. The potential return of Mike Williams gives Justin Herbert a chance to win in a shootout, but his offensive line is no better than Miami's -- and his supporting talent, including the coaching staff, is clearly worse.

• WHERE: State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Ariz.)
• WHEN: 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN, ESPN2, ESPN Deportes
• MONEYLINE: Patriots: -125 | Cardinals: +105
• SPREAD: Patriots -1.5 | O/U: 43.5

The Patriots' defenses flummoxes bad quarterbacks and unsound schemes. The Patriots' defense struggles with mobile quarterbacks who can break down their fundamentals. So, which trend wins out here? With New England receiving extra rest after hosting Thursday Night Football last week, I trust Bill Belichick to find the holes in Arizona's offensive line. However, I don't trust this Pats offense to be cohesive enough to make it a comfortable win.

• WHERE: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, Calif.)
• WHEN: 8:15 p.m. ET | Prime Video, NFL+
• MONEYLINE: Raiders: -305 | Rams: +240
• SPREAD: Raiders -6.5 | O/U: 42.5

It felt like last week’s game against the Seahawks was the Rams’ Super Bowl. Their defense, led by Bobby Wagner, played with insane energy and their offense came out firing. They still lost to a division rival. Now reality sets in against a Raiders defensive front that is suddenly balling, led by Chandler Jones’ 19 pressures in the last two weeks. Rams quarterback John Wolford has a neck injury and recently claimed Baker Mayfield just arrived in Los Angeles on Tuesday night. It’s hard to trust the Rams’ offense to score enough no matter who plays quarterback.