Who will end up with the No. 1 pick of the 2016 NFL Draft? Here's a look at the Week 17 games that will help determine the top of the draft order.
Note: The draft order is determined by record, using strength of schedule, and then conference and division records as tiebreakers (record and strength of schedule are official tiebreakers to determine draft order).
Records:Titans (3-12); Colts (7-8)
Where they stand:Tennessee holds a comfortable lead in the strength-of-schedule tiebreaker (.493 to .529) with the Cleveland Browns, and their respective Week 17 opponents will do nothing to close that gap. As such, Tennessee is poised to claim the No. 1 pick with a loss to the Colts. If Tennessee beats the Colts and gives up the top pick to Cleveland, it also holds a tiebreaker edge over other contenders for the No. 2 pick. Indianapolis is currently in the No. 17 draft position, but three other teams also have a 7-8 record, so the Colts' draft position could still swing significantly in the final week.
Records:Steelers (9-6); Browns (3-12)
Where they stand:The No. 1 pick looks to be out of Cleveland's hands entering the season's final week. The Browns would need to lose to Pittsburgh and hope for a Titans win to take the top spot in the draft. The Browns could also slip out of the No. 2 pick with an upset of Pittsburgh, as San Diego (.511) has a current tiebreaker edge over the Browns and Dallas (.529) is currently tied with Cleveland in SOS.
Records:Chargers (4-11); Broncos (11-4)
Where they stand:San Diego's strength of schedule rating of .511 has the Chargers holding the No. 3 position entering the week. If Tennessee and Cleveland both lose, however, San Diego can't climb any higher than that. With a game against the 11-4 Broncos upcoming, San Diego's SOS rating figures to rise.
Records:Redskins (8-7); Cowboys (4-11)
Where they stand:Dallas' dismal season has the Cowboys within reach of a top-five pick. A loss to the division-leading Redskins would guarantee it. Where the Cowboys' draft position really could swing is with a win. Three 5-10 teams behind Dallas (Miami, Jacksonville and Baltimore) all have sub-.500 SOS ratings. As such, it's possible that a Dallas win could sink the Cowboys' first pick as low as No. 8 overall, depending on other outcomes.
Records:Rams (7-8); 49ers (4-11).
Where they stand:San Francisco holds the No. 5 pick entering the week, trailing the four-win Chargers and Cowboys in the tiebreaker. With an NFL-high SOS rating of .556, the 49ers will likely draft behind any team with an identical final record, regardless of what that record is. Like Dallas, San Francisco could slip to the No. 8 pick with a win if the NFL's three five-win teams end the season with a loss.
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