The First Read

What's at stake in the NFL playoff race in Week 18? Three division titles, NFC's top seed and more

Published: Dec 30, 2024 at 02:24 AM

Jeffri Chadiha

NFL.com Columnist

In The First Read, Jeffri Chadiha provides a snapshot of the hottest stories and trends heading into Week 18 of the 2024 NFL season, including:

Three games worthy of NFL Pro deep dives
Most intriguing matchup in Week 18
Top five MVP candidates

But first, an explanation of what's at stake in the final week of the 2024 regular season ...

We've already had an NFL season filled with wild twists and turns, so it's only fitting that the final weekend includes a few more. There are still three division races to be decided. The number of available wild-card spots is down to one, as Washington claimed the last seed in the NFC with an overtime win over Atlanta. A monster matchup in the NFC North will determine who ends up with a first-round bye, while the Cincinnati Bengals -- yes, they're still relevant somehow -- have an outside shot at landing in the postseason after all their travails this year.

You know how we do in The First Read once the final weekend of the regular season arrives. It's time to assess what's at stake in Week 18. There's plenty to discuss …

NFC North title

This looked like it was going to be the best division in football heading into the season, and it has certainly lived up to expectations. We head into Week 18 with one contender that was projected to be competing to be the kings of the North, that being the Detroit Lions. The Minnesota Vikings are the squad nobody saw coming, largely because there was a strong belief throughout this season that quarterback Sam Darnold would eventually implode and start playing like the Sam Darnold people wrote off years ago. That hasn't happened, and so here we are, with the 14-2 Vikings preparing for a visit to the 13-2 Lions. If Detroit does what is expected and beats the embattled San Francisco 49ers on Monday night, then we have one of the best games of the year slated for the end of the season.

The Vikings have won nine straight and just beat the Green Bay Packers in a 27-25 victory that Minnesota dominated for long stretches. The Lions have become a case study in resilience, as they've won 12 of their last 13 games despite having many key starters on injured reserve. Most of those players are on the defensive side, and some will return in the postseason. The problem is the Lions could use most of them in this contest. Darnold lit up the Packers defense -- which is a top-10 unit -- so imagine what he could do to a team that's been decimated on that side of the football. This will be another huge challenge for Lions head coach Dan Campbell and his team. However, it's fair to believe he'll find a way to claim that division crown for a second consecutive year.

No. 1 seed in the NFC

This is the other storyline involved in that Vikings-Lions game, and it's even more significant. The winner of that game lands the coveted first-round bye, now that Philadelphia has fallen out of the race for that prize. There's also no doubt about which team needs it more. The Lions would benefit immensely from a week of rest, given all their health problems. They also understand how much a potential home game for the NFC championship could mean to their Super Bowl dreams. After all, the Lions held a 17-point halftime lead over San Francisco on the road in last year's conference title game, only to watch the 49ers rally to win. That might have been a different result had Detroit been playing in front of its home crowd. The Vikings fans can be equally raucous and an immense aid to a disruptive defense that has ranked among the league leaders in sacks all season. Let's also not forget how deep the NFC field will be in this postseason. At least two NFC North teams will be wild cards (the Packers and either the Lions or Vikings), and all of them will be hard to beat. So, it's best to have a week away from that carnage. It says here that the Lions earn that privilege, as well.

NFC South title

The Falcons and Buccaneers have been jostling over this division for the last month. The Buccaneers had control until a Week 16 loss to Dallas dropped them into second place. Atlanta came into Week 17 needing a win over Washington to remain on top, but the Falcons lost in overtime. So, Tampa Bay goes into its season-finale with New Orleans holding a one-game lead and control of its own destiny. If the Bucs beat the Saints, it's game over. If the Bucs lose and the Falcons beat Carolina at home, then Atlanta takes the division on the strength of winning both games against Tampa Bay this year. Given that the Saints have suffered three straight losses and scored a combined 29 points in those contests, it's hard not to like Tampa Bay's chances next Sunday.

AFC North title

The Baltimore Ravens have a one-game lead in this race, so they control their own destiny heading into a regular-season finale with Cleveland. All they must do is beat the same Browns team that upset them back on Oct. 27. If Baltimore somehow falters, then the Steelers can take the crown with a win over Cincinnati (Pittsburgh holds the tiebreaker advantage in this scenario). It might be tempting to wonder if the Browns could pull off another surprise, but a lot has changed for all the teams involved in this conversation. For one, the Ravens defense is far better than it was in that first matchup, when Browns quarterback Jameis Winston threw for 334 yards and three touchdowns. Hell, Winston has declined so much that he's not even starting for Cleveland anymore. The Steelers have offensive problems of their own as well. They've scored all of 40 points in their last three games -- all defeats -- and they looked feeble on that side of the ball in a 29-10 loss to Kansas City on Christmas. The Bengals scored 38 points in a loss to Pittsburgh earlier this season. It's hard to see Pittsburgh keeping pace with that type of explosiveness in this contest. The Steelers are simply going in the wrong direction. The Ravens, on the other hand, are surging at exactly the right time.

AFC's final wild-card spot

The Cincinnati Bengals made things far more complicated this weekend with their 30-24 overtime win over Denver on Saturday. The Broncos still have the advantage when it comes to snaring that last wild-card spot, as they need only to beat the Chiefs in Week 18 to clinch it. Given that Kansas City already has earned the top seed in the AFC, it's been reported that head coach Andy Reid will rest his starters in that contest. However, that doesn't mean crazy things couldn't happen and result in a Broncos loss. If that did occur, it wouldn't just be the Bengals who would stand to benefit. A Denver loss and a win by Miami over the New York Jets would give the Dolphins that last playoff spot. A Denver loss and a Miami defeat would give the Bengals that final slot if they can beat Pittsburgh next Sunday. If all three teams lose, then Denver is in the postseason.

Yes, it's a lot to digest. You can blame the Bengals for that. Just don't think that all those miracles will happen for them. The Broncos nearly beat the Chiefs in Kansas City when Patrick Mahomes was on the field. They'll likely handle business with him watching from the sidelines this time around.

Wild-card seeding in both conferences

This might not sound like a big deal until you realize the fifth seed in both conferences could end up being favored against the fourth seed, which is the weakest division champion. The Chargers and the Steelers currently would be in position to earn that top wild-card spot in the AFC. That means they would travel to play Houston, a team that is 1-5 against teams with winning records (including a 31-2 thumping by the Ravens on Christmas). Despite all the high expectations surrounding the Texans, this is a team that looks ripe for a first-round exit. The Chargers end up with the fifth seed with a win over the Raiders and a Steelers loss to Cincinnati. Pittsburgh just needs a victory because it has the tiebreaker over Los Angeles, thanks to a head-to-head win earlier this year.

On the NFC side, the No. 5 seed is going to be either the Lions or Vikings, two of the three best teams in that conference. They would face either the Buccaneers or the Falcons, whichever one wins the NFC South. Obviously, Tampa Bay would be a tougher opponent, since it already beat the Lions. Atlanta would be a different story. Expecting rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. to win games against Detroit's prolific offense or Minnesota's dominant defense would be asking a lot of a first-year player who wasn't even a starter until Week 16. Expect the Chargers and Vikings to land those fifth seeds and to also advance.

Saquon Barkley's shot at history

Saquon Barkley and the Philadelphia Eagles find themselves in an intriguing place heading into their regular-season finale with the Giants. After running for 167 yards on 31 carries in a win over Dallas, he now has 2,005 rush yards on the season. Another 101 yards would break Eric Dickerson's single-season league record of 2,105 yards, which has stood for exactly 40 years. The Eagles have leaned more on Barkley in the last couple weeks, likely because that record was within reach, but also because quarterback Jalen Hurts has been dealing with a concussion that knocked him out of a loss to Washington in Week 16. There should be an urge to let Barkley go after that record, especially since he could do it against the team that drafted him into the NFL and let him walk in free agency this past offseason (he also gained 176 yards on 17 carries in a win over the Giants on Oct. 20). The more pragmatic approach would be to rest Barkley now that the Eagles have clinched the NFC East and they no longer have a shot at the top seed. Barkley seems like the type of guy who would go for the latter, which would be the right move. He could've set a personal record in that first matchup against the Giants and opted to sit out the closing portion of the blowout win. There's no reason for him to care about numbers this time around, not with the Eagles having a real shot at winning a championship. It would be great to see him break the record. It would be even worse to see him injured before the postseason ever begins.

Most Valuable Player race

It felt like Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen wrapped up this award after his team won at Detroit in Week 15. There also has been enough pushback from fans of Barkley and Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson that their cases remain alive. Week 18 will be the last chance for final arguments. As has already been noted, it's not a given that Barkley will be playing in his regular-season finale, and it's fair to say he'd need that rushing record to have a realistic shot at MVP. Jackson is a different situation. He's enjoying a better year than he produced in his previous two MVP seasons (3,955 passing yards, 852 rushing yards, 43 total touchdowns and only four interceptions). He's also finishing the season by playing well in meaningful football games, as he's already beaten the Steelers and Texans in the last two weeks. Jackson now can help his team clinch the AFC North with a win over Cleveland, and there will surely be advocates who will be influenced by recency bias.

This is where we break for the reality check. Jackson has benefited immensely from the presence of running back Derrick Henry, who has produced the quietest 1,783-yard season in the history of football thus far. There isn't another player on Buffalo's roster who comes close to having that level of impact on that squad. The Bills have thrived because of Allen's brilliance, and they've also beaten the Chiefs (Kansas City's only loss so far, by the way) and the Lions with him performing at a high level. The MVP is an award driven by narrative and moments. Allen -- who is leading a team that lost some key veteran leaders from the past few seasons -- has the advantage in both categories.

2025 NFL Draft order

Anybody who thinks NFL teams should embrace the idea of tanking needs to check out what happened this weekend and how it will impact this coming Sunday. Three teams that were in the running for the first overall pick in next year's draft -- the Giants, Raiders and Jaguars -- all won. That leaves the New England Patriots with the inside track for that position, but that doesn't mean things can't change even more in the final week. At 3-13, the Patriots have the same record as the Titans, Browns and Giants. New England also finishes with a home game against Buffalo, which can't improve its playoff seeding and might sit several starters, as well. So, the question facing the Patriots is difficult in its own way: Do they value a season-ending win for a young rebuilding team or a chance to improve the roster even more (especially since they already used a top pick on quarterback Drake Maye last year and could trade next year's selection for a nice haul)? They'd be better off with the pick, but let's see how this one plays out.

WORTHY OF NFL PRO DEEP DIVES

Bengals over Broncos (OT). A Joe Burrow touchdown pass to Tee Higgins in overtime helps keep Cincinnati's remote playoff hopes alive.
Vikings over Packers. Minnesota holds off a late Packers rally to set up a shot at the NFC North title and the top seed.
Commanders over Falcons (OT). Another overtime thriller this weekend that ended with Jayden Daniels hitting Zach Ertz to put Washington in the playoffs.

MOST INTRIGUING GAME OF WEEK 18

Minnesota Vikings

14-2

Detroit Lions

13-2

There’s plenty on the line in this regular-season finale. We’ve already mentioned the obvious (NFC North title, a first-round bye in the NFC playoffs), but there are other intriguing storylines. This is yet another opportunity for Sam Darnold to produce a significant accomplishment in a season that has redefined his career. The Lions’ injury-plagued defense also has the chance to prove it can hold up against one of the most dynamic offenses in the league. Detroit won the first contest by two points, 31-29. This one might be even closer for the eventual victor.

MVP WATCH

A simple ranking of the top five candidates, which will be updated weekly, depending on performance. Here is how it stands heading into Week 18 (with DraftKings odds as of 2:15 a.m. ET on Monday, Dec. 30):

Rank