Alabama, Florida State, Ohio State and Oregon formed the four-team field in the inaugural College Football Playoff last season. Each team returns with a lot of talent, although three of the four (all but Ohio State) lost their starting quarterback from last season in the offseason. Which of the four is least likely to return to the playoff this season?
CFB 24/7 experts reveal their picks.
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- Gil Brandt NFL.com
Alabama faces tough road
I think Ohio State is a cinch to make it back to the playoff. I think that Alabama, Oregon and Florida State each are possibilities to not make it back, but the one team most likely to not return to the playoff is Alabama. The reason I say that is because Alabama plays the toughest schedule (Oregon's schedule is 33rd-toughest, Ohio State 45th and FSU 61st), it has the least amount of returning starters (10), and the Crimson Tide play road games against Georgia, Texas A&M, Mississippi State and Auburn. Alabama's road game against Mississippi State comes a week after it plays LSU. Three of the four playoff finalists from last year will have new starting quarterbacks, but two of those new starters -- Oregon's Vernon Adams and Florida State's Everett Golson -- were starters last year, at Eastern Washington and Notre Dame, respectively. Alabama's Jake Coker is a senior, but hasn't started.
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- Lance Zierlein NFL.com
Seminoles in for big challenge
Despite the addition of quarterback Everett Golson to the Florida State roster, I believe the Seminoles will have the toughest time making it back to the playoff of the four teams. FSU lost both starting cornerbacks, almost its entire offensive line, a multi-purpose tight end and, of course, a star quarterback in Jameis Winston. There are losses beyond those mentioned, but all of those losses are at spots that are hard to fill overnight. Ohio State is absolutely loaded and Alabama's defense is going to be extremely tough to score against. Oregon's system has a proven record of success pre-dating Marcus Mariota.
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- Chase Goodbread College Football 24/7
Big obstacles await Oregon
Without Marcus Mariota at quarterback, not to mention a lot of outstanding talent that departed at other positions, Oregon is the least likely of the four to make a return appearance in the College Football Playoff. Heralded transfer quarterback Vernon Adams might set the Pac-12 on fire, but he's about to face a significantly higher level of competition and that adjustment could be a bumpy ride. Also gone are Eric Fisher, Hroniss Grasu, Arik Armstead, Ifo Ekpre-Olomu and a few other key performers. Throw in the fact that the Ducks travel to East Lansing, Mich., to face Michigan State in addition to the Pac-12 schedule, and the road back to the playoff won't be easy.
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- Mike Huguenin College Football 24/7
Tide could take step back
I think the only one of the four that should be expected to make it back is Ohio State. I think the least likely among the quartet to repeat as a national semifinalist is Alabama, mainly because the SEC West is so deep. Alabama has no proven quarterback or go-to receiver; in addition, the secondary had issues last season, and the Tide lost their best defensive back when safety Landon Collins turned pro early. While FSU has holes, especially on offense, the Seminoles are the most talented team in the ACC. And while the Pac-12 South is deep, Oregon is in the Pac-12 North and the Ducks look to be the best team in the division.
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