The winning combination
An NFL head coach said to me this weekend, "NFL defenses aren't very good anymore in the open field." Almost any team can pile up yardage between the 20-yard lines these days. A case in point, the 14 400-yard games turned in by QBs this season is an NFL record, and you can be sure we aren't done. When I asked Bill Cowher about the perception that defenses are giving up big chunks of yardage, he agreed. He sees defenses focused on three things: winning in the red zone, forcing turnovers and creating non-offensive scores. So I took a quick look at those three areas.
The battle is raging between the best scoring red-zone teams and the best red-zone defenses. Most coaches agree that you must score touchdowns when you get in the red zone. Is it any surprise that the three teams with the most red-zone touchdowns are New England (36), Green Bay (35) and New Orleans (31)? On the other side of the ball, is it any surprise that San Francisco (10), Baltimore (12) and Pittsburgh (15) lead the way with the fewest red-zone touchdowns allowed? Of course, good red-zone play means doing it on offense and defense. The Packers and Falcons hold a +11 differential in that area.
Here are some simple facts from the 2011 season: If your team is even with an opponent in turnovers, it's 50-50 you win the game, as it should be. But if your team wins the turnover battle by one, the odds of winning go up to 69 percent. If they win the turnover battle by two, the odds go up to 85 percent, and if they win the battle by three it shoots up to 97 percent. Green Bay is the only team in the NFL to have not lost a turnover battle in a game this season. They also lead the NFL with 32 takeaways.
Finally, if you can get a defensive or special teams score, your chances of winning go up considerably. It also helps to not give up any special teams scores. The 49ers are the only team in the league to not give up a touchdown to an opposing defense or special teams unit in 2011. Not surprisingly, the Packers show up high on this list as well, surrendering only one such touchdown all year. Teams that get a defensive score win 69 percent of the time, but if a team gets a special teams score its winning percentage improves to 75 percent.
Marino chase adds a competitor
A week ago I posted the three quarterbacks chasing the Dan Marino single-season passing yardage record of 5,084 yards. Now Eli Manning can be added to the list after his 400-yard game against the Dallas Cowboys, which brings him to 4,105 yards on the year. With three games to play, the race is on, and not only is Drew Brees in the lead, he also reduced the yards-per-game average he needs to break the record from 264 to 239 after last week's 337-yard day against the Titans. That's good news considering the last three opponents on the Saints' schedule are ranked in the bottom half of the league against the pass: Minnesota (No. 31), Atlanta (No. 16) and Carolina (No. 30), and the final two games are at home, where the Saints have been lights-out this season. The record book might be changing for the first time in 26 years.
Keep in mind that when Marino set the record he averaged 35 pass attempts, 23 completions and threw 48 touchdowns to just 17 interceptions.
The art of the comeback
The Falcons rallied from 16 points down at halftime last week to win a road game over the Panthers. It was just the second time in team history they won a game when trailing by 16 points or more on the road entering the third quarter. It was an exciting comeback, but the Falcons were not alone, as a total of five teams down at least 12 points fought their way back to victory.
It was the first time in NFL history that it happened five times in the same weekend. Those five performances didn't even take into account Tim Tebow's comeback from 10 points down late in the fourth quarter against the Bears. The most comebacks of this nature in a season were 22 back in 1987, and we have already seen 18 this year with 48 games to play. It took 10 passing touchdowns, two rushing touchdowns, two defensive scores and one field goal for the Cardinals, Falcons, Texans, Giants, and Jaguars to come back and win. I talked with Maurice Jones-Drew of the Jaguars, who accounted for four touchdowns in Jacksonville's comeback over the Bucs, and he simply stated, "we stuck together down 14 points and played our game."
Love to see those rookie QBs
Atlanta has played against four rookie quarterbacks in the past four weeks (Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, T.J. Yates, and Cam Newton), which helps explain why they might be back in the playoff race. They face another rookie when they meet Blaine Gabbert and the Jaguars Thursday night on NFL Network.
Glad he plays in the AFC
The NFC is lucky the Patriots are in the AFC. With their win over the Redskins last week, they moved to 34-6 over NFC teams in their last 40 regular season interconference games with Tom Brady at QB. Throw in the four Super Bowls, and Tom is 37-7 against the NFC, with 89 touchdowns and 33 interceptions while averaging 269 passing yards a game.
