Why aren't more people on the Thomas Jones bandwagon after the addition of Brett Favre? He's an everydown back with a much improved offensive line that now includes Damien Woody and Alan Faneca. He is 29, but I think he can produce close to 1,800 scrimmage yards and 10 total touchdowns. Thoughts? -- B. Baker, Dallas, Texas
Michael Fabiano: I'm actually right there with you on Jones, who has moved up to No. 16 at the running back position on NFL.com. Jones did rush for over 1,100 yards last season, but his lack of end-zone visits was a real detriment to his value. There is now reason for optimism, however, as the Jets added Faneca and Woody to what should be an improved offensive line. Jones will also see fewer stacked fronts with Favre under center.
While he is "older" by running back standards, Jones has averaged 290 carries over the past four seasons. That's not a ton for a featured back (compare that to LaDainian Tomlinson, who has averaged 335 carries). The veteran out of Virginia is now worth as much as a third- or fourth-round selection in leagues with 12-plus teams.
I have the No. 1 overall pick in a 12-team, quarterback-intensive league (six points for passing touchdowns, plus 10 extra points for touchdown passes of 50-plus yards). Tom Brady had 30 percent more points than the next highest scorer (Tony Romo) last season. What sort of numbers do you expect from Brady this season? -- J. Putman, Denver, Colo.
M.F.: Based on the past, you shouldn't be expecting Brady to even come close to the 4,806 passing yards and 52 total touchdowns in recorded last season. Back in 1984, Dan Marino threw for a record 5,084 passing yards and 48 touchdowns. While he did throw for a solid 4,137 yards in 1985, Marino threw for 18 fewer touchdowns. Kurt Warner came out of nowhere to record 4,353 passing yards and 42 total touchdowns in 1999. His 41 touchdown passes were the third-most ever in a single season at the time. Warner turned out to be a serious disappointment across the board in 2000, however, as he missed five starts and threw for 924 fewer yards and scored 21 fewer touchdowns.
Peyton Manning threw for a career-best 4,557 passing yards and broke Marino's single-season record for touchdown passes with 49 in the 2004 season. He went on to throw for 3,747 yards and 28 touchdowns in 2005 and failed to reach the 4,000-yard mark for the first time since his rookie season. If you want a prediction on Brady's 2008 totals, I'd put them at 4,300-4,500 passing yards and 35-40 total touchdown. But again, he won't duplicate the ridiculous totals he had last season.
We held our draft back in June, and I landed Tony Romo and Vince Young at the quarterback position. When rumors started that Brett Favre might "unretire," I picked him up off waivers. What sort of trade value does Favre have this season? -- G. Esuerra, San Diego, Calif.
M.F.: Favre's value is of course on the rise now that he's active and in New York, but most owners won't make a significant one-for-one move to acquire him. The best bet is to check on the others teams and determine whose No. 1 quarterback could use an upgrade. You might be able to land a running back like Michael Turner or Ronnie Brown or a wide receiver such as Roy Williams or Greg Jennings. Overall, you're looking at getting a No. 2 runner or wideout in a straight trade for the grizzled veteran.
Michael, how important is strength of schedule when picking between two players with similar value? I'm trying to compare Jake Delhomme and Matt Schaub. Thanks! -- B. Wronkiewicz, Park Ridge, Ill.
M.F.: I think strength of schedule can be very important in determining the value of players. While you're not going to pass on Brian Westbrook because he has a tough road, it can make a difference in the selection of less-valued players like Delhomme or Schaub. Even with Steve Smith out the first two weeks, I still have Delhomme rated higher than Schaub. Much of that has to do with the fact that Delhomme has one of the easiest schedules in the league based on last season's pass defense rankings. The veteran faces games against Atlanta, Arizona, Chicago, Detroit, Minnesota and New Orleans. None of those teams ranked higher than 23rd in 2007.
I'm in a 10-team PPR keeper league and have been offered Braylon Edwards for Reggie Wayne. I have Derek Anderson and the other owner has Peyton Manning, so we'd have the quarterback-wide receiver combination if the deal were consummated. Should I make this move? -- M. Dubuc, Duson, La.
M.F.: Wayne has a much better track record for statistical success, and the presence of Manning in Indianapolis makes him a lock to post solid numbers season in and season out. Edwards has the advantage of youth, as he's just 25 while Wayne turns 30 in November. While the combo scenario can be attractive, I'm not sure I'd make a trade in order to secure one. The Manning factor makes me side with Wayne (and not making the deal), but if your league allows long-term contracts the Edwards is more attractive.
I'm in a 10-team keeper league that does not hold a separate rookie draft. I'm going to retain Steven Jackson and Randy Moss. I also have the first and sixth selections in the first round, and the best veterans available will be Ronnie Brown, Jamal Lewis, Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson and Chad Johnson. Should I take one of these players or a rookie like Darren McFadden? -- R. Robinson, Chicago, Ill.
M.F.: It's hard not to like McFadden based on his age and potential to record impressive totals both as a runner and receiver out of the backfield. But here's the catch. McFadden would need to have a superb rookie season to warrant greater keeper consideration than Jackson or Moss heading in the 2009 season. And since you can retain no more than two players, you might not even have the chance to keep McFadden. Since it's a smaller league and you have two first-round picks, however, I'd still take McFadden with the first pick and either an elite quarterback or a wideout like Fitzgerald or Ocho Cinco with the second selection.
Hi Michael, how does the loss of Deion Branch and Bobby Engram affect the value of Matt Hasselbeck? Where would you target him (if at all)? -- C. Livermore, Green Bay, Wis.
M.F.: It can't help that Hasselbeck has lost Branch, Engram and D.J. Hackett entering this season, but I still see him as a No. 1 fantasy quarterback. He might have a slow start to the season, but matchups against Buffalo, San Francisco and St. Louis in the first three weeks are advantageous. Furthermore, Hasselbeck should get Branch and Engram back before or around the midseason point, so it's not like he'll be without his top wideouts for all 16 contests. I'd still feel safe taking him in the middle rounds.
Felix Jones looked terrific in his preseason debut, and there's been talk that he'll be on the field a lot for Dallas this season. I know Marion Barber is the starter, but can Jones be productive enough to warrant being a No. 3 fantasy back? -- A. Jones, Springfield, Mo.
M.F.: The Cowboys do love what Jones brings to the offensive attack, but he's a complement to Barber and no threat to steal significant carries. The rookie will also come off the field when the Cowboys are near the goal line, which is where Barber takes over in the backfield. That means far fewer touchdowns opportunities for Jones this season. I see him as more of a No. 4 fantasy back, but he's a fantastic handcuff for owners who land Barber in the first or second round.
I have the No. 10 overall selection in a 10-team league that rewards 0.5 points for receptions and six points for all touchdowns. Should I take two running backs in the first two rounds or go after a star wide receiver like Terrell Owens or Reggie Wayne? -- R. Serrano, Chicago, Ill.
M.F.: Based on the fact that you have back-to-back picks, I'd take a runner like Marion Barber, Marshawn Lynch or Clinton Portis in the first round and a superstar wideout in the second round. Since it's a smaller league, you might even be able to land Randy Moss ahead of either Owens or Wayne. You should then look to add another back in Rounds 3-5.
I'm in an 8-team keeper league and need to retain two players from Brandon Jacobs, Laurence Maroney, Willis McGahee, Larry Fitzgerald and T.J. Houshmandzadeh. I have the last spot in the re-draft. Should I keep the two wideouts, especially with McGahee's knee problems and Baltimore's shaky offensive line? -- J. Malmanger, St. Cloud, Minn.
M.F.: Despite your aforementioned concerns, I'd still retain McGahee. He's a featured back at a time when backfield committees have become the norm, and the presence of OC Cam Cameron means the Ravens will lean on the run quite a bit. I'd also retain Fitzgerald, who is one of the more talented young wideouts in the NFL.
