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Cynthia Frelund's Week 16 fantasy projections

My projections are based on historical trends, personnel, matchups and probable game scripts. Yes, it could be considered overkill to use 10 full years of past, actual, and comparable data to forecast each week, but why wouldn't you want to at least try to be as accurate as possible? I know I can't find a reason not to.

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Cynthia Frelund

NFL Network Analytics Expert

292 pass yards, 3 TD; 31 rush yards

1 / 18

1. Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

292 pass yards, 3 TD; 31 rush yards

Brett Duke/Associated Press

227 pass yards, 2 TD, INT; 55 rush yards, TD

2 / 18

2. Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens

227 pass yards, 2 TD, INT; 55 rush yards, TD

Nick Wass/Associated Press

268 pass yards, 2 TD, INT; 35 rush yards, TD

3 / 18

3. Deshaun Watson, QB, Houston Texans

268 pass yards, 2 TD, INT; 35 rush yards, TD

Zach Bolinger/Associated Press

241 pass yards, 2 TD, INT; 39 rush yards, TD

4 / 18

4. Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals

241 pass yards, 2 TD, INT; 39 rush yards, TD

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

229 pass yards, TD; 46 rush yards, TD

5 / 18

5. Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles

229 pass yards, TD; 46 rush yards, TD

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

274 pass yards, 2 TD

6 / 18

Upside Pick - Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers

274 pass yards, 2 TD

Ryan Kang/NFL

84 rush yards, TD; 3 receptions, 31 yards, TD

7 / 18

1. David Montgomery, RB, Chicago Bears

84 rush yards, TD; 3 receptions, 31 yards, TD

Bruce Kluckhohn/Associated Press

102 rush yards, TD; 2 reception, 19 yards

8 / 18

2. Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans

102 rush yards, TD; 2 reception, 19 yards

Wade Payne/Associated Press

77 rush yards, TD; 3 receptions, 30 yards

9 / 18

3. Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers

77 rush yards, TD; 3 receptions, 30 yards

Jeffrey Phelps/Associated Press

94 rush yards, TD; 2 reception, 15 yards

10 / 18

4. Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns

94 rush yards, TD; 2 reception, 15 yards

Seth Wenig/Associated Press

68 rush yards, TD; 3 receptions, 28 yards

11 / 18

5. Leonard Fournette, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

68 rush yards, TD; 3 receptions, 28 yards

Danny Karnik/Associated Press

44 rush yards; 3 receptions, 40 yards, TD

12 / 18

Upside Pick - David Johnson, RB, Houston Texans

44 rush yards; 3 receptions, 40 yards, TD

Zach Bolinger/Associated Press

8 receptions, 93 yards, TD

13 / 18

1. Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers

8 receptions, 93 yards, TD

Jeffrey Phelps/Associated Press

7 receptions, 82 yards, TD

14 / 18

2. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Arizona Cardinals

7 receptions, 82 yards, TD

Gregory Trott/Associated Press

5 receptions, 99 yards, TD

15 / 18

3. Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

5 receptions, 99 yards, TD

Aaron Doster/NFL

7 receptions, 72 yards, TD

16 / 18

4. Stefon Diggs, WR, Buffalo Bills

7 receptions, 72 yards, TD

Justin Edmonds/Associated Press

6 receptions, 79 yards, TD

17 / 18

5. Calvin Ridley, WR, Atlanta Falcons

6 receptions, 79 yards, TD

Danny Karnik/Associated Press

4 receptions, 62 yards, TD

18 / 18

Upside Pick – DK Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks

4 receptions, 62 yards, TD

Daniel Kucin Jr./Associated Press

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