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Cynthia Frelund's Week 16 fantasy projections

My projections are based on historical trends, personnel, matchups and probable game scripts. Yes, it could be considered overkill to use 10 full years of past actual data and comparables to forecast each week, but why wouldn't you want to at least try to be as accurate as possible? I know I can't find a reason not to:

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Cynthia Frelund

NFL Network Analytics Expert

321 pass yards, 3 TD, 1 INT

1 / 18

1) Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

321 pass yards, 3 TD, 1 INT

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

301 pass yards, 2 TD

2 / 18

2) Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints

301 pass yards, 2 TD

Perry Knotts/NFL

292 pass yards, 2 TD

3 / 18

3) Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts

292 pass yards, 2 TD

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

290 pass yards, 2 TD

4 / 18

4) Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers

290 pass yards, 2 TD

Philip G. Pavely/Associated Press

282 pass yards, 2 TD

5 / 18

5) Tom Brady, QB, New Orleans Saints

282 pass yards, 2 TD

Keith Srakocic/Associated Press

278 pass yards, 2 TD

6 / 18

Upside pick: Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons

278 pass yards, 2 TD

Logan Bowles/NFL

130 scrimmage yards, TD; 6 rec

7 / 18

1) Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers

130 scrimmage yards, TD; 6 rec

Perry Knotts/NFL

129 scrimmage yards, TD; 5 rec

8 / 18

2) Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys

129 scrimmage yards, TD; 5 rec

AJ Mast/Associated Press

120 scrimmage yards, TD; 5 rec

9 / 18

3) Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints

120 scrimmage yards, TD; 5 rec

Perry Knotts/NFL

109 scrimmage yards, TD; 6 rec

10 / 18

4) Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants

109 scrimmage yards, TD; 6 rec

Ryan Kang/NFL

109 scrimmage yards, TD; 3 rec

11 / 18

5) Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns

109 scrimmage yards, TD; 3 rec

Jack Dempsey/Associated Press

101 scrimmage yards, TD; 2 rec

12 / 18

Upside pick: David Johnson, RB, Arizona Cardinals

101 scrimmage yards, TD; 2 rec

Gene Lower/Associated Press

7 receptions, 88 yards, TD

13 / 18

1) DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Houston Texans

7 receptions, 88 yards, TD

Adam Hunger/Associated Press

7 receptions, 84 yards, TD

14 / 18

2) Antonio Brown, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

7 receptions, 84 yards, TD

Don Wright/Associated Press

6 receptions, 84 yards, TD

15 / 18

3) Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons

6 receptions, 84 yards, TD

Logan Bowles/NFL

6 receptions, 82 yards, TD

16 / 18

4) Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints

6 receptions, 82 yards, TD

Perry Knotts/NFL

6 receptions, 79 yards, TD

17 / 18

5) Adam Thielen, WR, Minnesota Vikings

6 receptions, 79 yards, TD

Bruce Kluckhohn/Associated Press

5 receptions, 77 yards, TD

18 / 18

Upside pick: Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

5 receptions, 77 yards, TD

Ben Liebenberg/NFL

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