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Cynthia Frelund's Week 4 fantasy projections

My projections are based on historical trends, personnel, matchups and probable game scripts. Yes, it could be considered overkill to use 10 full years of past actual and comparable data to forecast each week, but why wouldn't you want to at least try to be as accurate as possible? I know I can't find a reason not to.

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Cynthia Frelund

NFL Network Analytics Expert

312 pass yards, 3 TD; 12 rush yards

1 / 18

1. Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

312 pass yards, 3 TD; 12 rush yards

Ed Zurga/Associated Press

238 pass yards, 2 TD; 32 rush yards

2 / 18

2. Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens

238 pass yards, 2 TD; 32 rush yards

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

251 pass yards, 2 TD; 25 rush yards

3 / 18

3. Deshaun Watson, QB, Houston Texans

251 pass yards, 2 TD; 25 rush yards

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

298 pass yards, 2 TD

4 / 18

4. Jared Goff, QB, Los Angeles Rams

298 pass yards, 2 TD

Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports

244 pass yards, 2 TD; 21 rush yards

5 / 18

5. Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks

244 pass yards, 2 TD; 21 rush yards

Steven Bisig/USA TODAY Sports

254 pass yards, 2 TD; 13 rush yards

6 / 18

Upside pick: Jacoby Brissett, QB, Indianapolis Colts

254 pass yards, 2 TD; 13 rush yards

Wade Payne/Associated Press

119 scrimmage yards, TD; 7 receptions

7 / 18

1. Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints

119 scrimmage yards, TD; 7 receptions

Scott Eklund/Associated Press

112 scrimmage yards, TD; 5 receptions

8 / 18

2. Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers

112 scrimmage yards, TD; 5 receptions

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

111 scrimmage yards, TD; 4 receptions

9 / 18

3. Todd Gurley, RB, Los Angeles Rams

111 scrimmage yards, TD; 4 receptions

Scott Galvin/USA TODAY Sports

115 scrimmage yards, TD; 3 receptions

10 / 18

4. Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys

115 scrimmage yards, TD; 3 receptions

Matthew Emmons/USA TODAY Sports

106 scrimmage yards, TD; 3 receptions

11 / 18

5. James Conner, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

106 scrimmage yards, TD; 3 receptions

Ben Margot/Associated Press

77 scrimmage yards, TD; 2 receptions

12 / 18

Upside pick: Justin Jackson, RB, Los Angeles Chargers

77 scrimmage yards, TD; 2 receptions

Rick Osentoski/Associated Press

8 receptions, 94 yards, TD

13 / 18

1. Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers

8 receptions, 94 yards, TD

Kelvin Kuo/USA TODAY Sports

7 receptions, 81 yards, TD

14 / 18

2. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Houston Texans

7 receptions, 81 yards, TD

Kelvin Kuo/USA TODAY Sports

7 receptions, 80 yards, TD

15 / 18

3. Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers

7 receptions, 80 yards, TD

Mike Roemer/Associated Press

6 receptions, 79 yards, TD

16 / 18

4. Odell Beckham, WR, Cleveland Browns

6 receptions, 79 yards, TD

Aaron M. Sprecher/Associated Press

6 receptions, 78 yards, TD

17 / 18

5. Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints

6 receptions, 78 yards, TD

Gregory Trott/Associated Press

5 receptions, 56 yards, TD

18 / 18

Upside pick: Kenny Golladay, WR, Detroit Lions

5 receptions, 56 yards, TD

Matt Rourke/Associated Press

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