NFL draft hits and misses on character risks

For all the research and tire-kicking that NFL clubs do on prospects in the months before the NFL draft, assessing those with character concerns is tricky business. Certainties are few, strikes of gold even fewer, and disappointments are plentiful.

As NFL Media analyst Mike Mayock noted on a media teleconference last week: "My perception and my experience is, plus or minus, 90 percent of the time, a kid ultimately turns into who he's always been."

The NFL draft has its share of top prospects with character concerns once again in 2015, with Florida State QB Jameis Winston -- due to in part to his standing as the presumptive No. 1 overall pick -- chief among them.

Here is a look at five NFL success stories who were drafted in the first round despite off-field concerns, and five whose NFL careers didn't meet or haven't yet met expectations.

Chase Goodbread

College: Auburn
Drafted: No. 1 overall (2011), Carolina Panthers
Position: QB
Getting it right: Between a stolen laptop that got Newton ousted from Florida and a scandalous NCAA investigation, nobody knew quite what the Panthers were getting themselves into. Turns out, they were on target with this decision.

1 / 10

Cam Newton

College: Auburn
Drafted: No. 1 overall (2011), Carolina Panthers
Position: QB

Getting it right: Between a stolen laptop that got Newton ousted from Florida and a scandalous NCAA investigation, nobody knew quite what the Panthers were getting themselves into. Turns out, they were on target with this decision.

Perry Knotts/NFL

College: Marshall
Drafted: No. 21 overall (1998), Minnesota Vikings
Position: WR
Getting it right: With his admission to Notre Dame being foiled by a fight and later being ousted from FSU, Marshall was considered Moss' last chance at football. But the Vikings took another chance, and got one of the greatest NFL receivers of the era.

2 / 10

Randy Moss

College: Marshall
Drafted: No. 21 overall (1998), Minnesota Vikings
Position: WR

Getting it right: With his admission to Notre Dame being foiled by a fight and later being ousted from FSU, Marshall was considered Moss' last chance at football. But the Vikings took another chance, and got one of the greatest NFL receivers of the era.

Andy King/Associated Press

College: Miami (Fla.)
Drafted: No. 12 overall (1995), Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Position: DL
Getting it right: Reports of a failed marijuana test at the NFL Scouting Combine precipitated Sapp's slip to the No. 12 pick of the draft. He ended up in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

3 / 10

Warren Sapp

College: Miami (Fla.)
Drafted: No. 12 overall (1995), Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Position: DL

Getting it right: Reports of a failed marijuana test at the NFL Scouting Combine precipitated Sapp's slip to the No. 12 pick of the draft. He ended up in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

J. Pat Carter/Associated Press

College: Kansas
Drafted: No. 20 overall (2008), Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Position: CB
Getting it right: Reports of failed drug tests in college made Talib a draft-day question mark. And while he's had his share of disciplinary issues in the NFL as well, he's also played at a high level and enters his ninth season in 2015. Talib has broken up 86 career passes and intercepted 27 others.

4 / 10

Aqib Talib

College: Kansas
Drafted: No. 20 overall (2008), Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Position: CB

Getting it right: Reports of failed drug tests in college made Talib a draft-day question mark. And while he's had his share of disciplinary issues in the NFL as well, he's also played at a high level and enters his ninth season in 2015. Talib has broken up 86 career passes and intercepted 27 others.

Greg Trott/Associated Press

College: Oklahoma State
Drafted: No. 24 overall (2010), Dallas Cowboys
Position: WR
Getting it right: An NCAA violation ended Bryant's last college season early after it was determined he lied to NCAA investigators. The Cowboys took a chance and got a dominant receiver whose production has improved year over year for his entire pro career to date.

5 / 10

Dez Bryant

College: Oklahoma State
Drafted: No. 24 overall (2010), Dallas Cowboys
Position: WR

Getting it right: An NCAA violation ended Bryant's last college season early after it was determined he lied to NCAA investigators. The Cowboys took a chance and got a dominant receiver whose production has improved year over year for his entire pro career to date.

Todd Rosenberg/NFL

College: Oklahoma State
Drafted: No. 5 overall (2012), Jacksonville Jaguars
Position: WR
Getting it wrong: Blackmon's off-field activities at Oklahoma State were a concern prior to the draft, but his prolific talent still made him a top-five choice. Since then, he's delivered little more than frustration to the Jaguars.

6 / 10

Justin Blackmon

College: Oklahoma State
Drafted: No. 5 overall (2012), Jacksonville Jaguars
Position: WR

Getting it wrong: Blackmon's off-field activities at Oklahoma State were a concern prior to the draft, but his prolific talent still made him a top-five choice. Since then, he's delivered little more than frustration to the Jaguars.

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

7 / 10

Lawrence Phillips

College: Nebraska
Drafted: No. 6 overall (1996), St. Louis Rams
Position: RB

Getting it wrong: Phillips had disciplinary issues at Nebraska that had red flags flying high before the draft, and these flags didn't have a Nebraska logo on them. He didn't last in the NFL and was eventually -- and still is -- incarcerated.

Greg Trott/Associated Press

College: West Virginia
Drafted: No. 6 overall (2005), Tennessee Titans
Position: CB
Getting it wrong: It's hard to put a player on this list who has lasted eight seasons in the NFL and is as talented as Jones, but Pacman proved to be a such a headache, he belongs. Before he reached the NFL, he was on probation at WVU for his involvement in a fight.

8 / 10

Adam "Pacman" Jones

College: West Virginia
Drafted: No. 6 overall (2005), Tennessee Titans
Position: CB

Getting it wrong: It's hard to put a player on this list who has lasted eight seasons in the NFL and is as talented as Jones, but Pacman proved to be a such a headache, he belongs. Before he reached the NFL, he was on probation at WVU for his involvement in a fight.

Miles Kennedy/Associated Press

College: Texas A&M
Drafted: No. 22 overall (2014), Cleveland Browns
Position: QB
Getting it wrong: OK, so Manziel has plenty of time to make good on the Browns' first-round investment. But his rookie season couldn't have been more of a disaster -- on the field or off -- and there isn't yet a single positive sign that his NFL career will turn for the better.

9 / 10

Johnny Manziel

College: Texas A&M
Drafted: No. 22 overall (2014), Cleveland Browns
Position: QB

Getting it wrong: OK, so Manziel has plenty of time to make good on the Browns' first-round investment. But his rookie season couldn't have been more of a disaster -- on the field or off -- and there isn't yet a single positive sign that his NFL career will turn for the better.

Aaron M. Sprecher/NFL

College: USC
Drafted: No. 29 overall (2000), Jacksonville Jaguars
Position: WR
Getting it wrong: Attitude problems at USC didn't stop Jaguars coach Tom Coughlin from giving this gifted receiver a chance. Soward didn't exactly respond well, and issues with alcohol contributed to his early ouster.

10 / 10

R. Jay Soward

College: USC
Drafted: No. 29 overall (2000), Jacksonville Jaguars
Position: WR

Getting it wrong: Attitude problems at USC didn't stop Jaguars coach Tom Coughlin from giving this gifted receiver a chance. Soward didn't exactly respond well, and issues with alcohol contributed to his early ouster.

Reed Saxon/Associated Press

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