Early in the 2024 season, Jayden Daniels opened up a yawning gap in the Offensive Rookie of the Year race the size of the Grand Canyon. The Washington Commanders quarterback performed so impeccably that he was on one side of the gorge and the rest of the rookie class was foraging on the other. A fortnight ago, Daniels seemed a shoo-in for the award.
Then Bo Nix made a move. And Daniels' stumbles against Pittsburgh and Philadelphia -- two excellent defenses -- opened the door for the Denver QB, whose odds of winning the award jumped up this week (+300).
It still might take an Indiana Jones-esque leap for Nix to actually cross the canyon and threaten Daniels' claim, but the way the Broncos signal-caller has shined in recent weeks makes it a possibility.
In Week 11, Nix had a historic day, becoming the first rookie in NFL history to complete 80-plus percent of his passes (84.8), earn four passing TDs and throw for 300-plus yards in a game (304). It marked Nix's fourth game with a 70 percent completion rate, two-plus passing TDs and zero INTs, tying him with Dak Prescott (2016) for most such games by a rookie in the common draft era. Nix was a sensation, looking every bit the signal-caller Sean Payton boasted about after the draft. The rookie diced up Atlanta's defense like a crisp onion. He zipped lasers to Devaughn Vele and awesome back-shoulders to Courtland Sutton. Nix read the Falcons' defense like a Dr. Seuss book: in rhythm.
I'll add one caveat: It wasn't Nix's most impressive performance. All four of his TD tosses were layups, coming on two uncovered targets and two WR screens that Atlanta defended as if it had never seen the concept before. Nix did well to find his guys, but Payton schemed those scores up.
The better performance was the previous week, in Denver's loss to Kansas City -- an actual good defense. The stats weren't as gaudy, but he still completed 73.3 percent of 30 attempts against a Chiefs unit that bullies opponents. Facing the back-to-back champs, Nix marched his team for what should have been the game-winning drive while Patrick Mahomes watched helplessly from the sideline. A blocked field-goal try ruined the party, but that afternoon showed Nix's cojones. This week, he added the stats to garner proper attention.
Perhaps the best compliment I can give Nix is that he's a rookie currently acing his 300-level course. After a cringy start to the season, the signal-caller has been an extension of Payton. He's winning before the snap with regularity; he appears to knows who should be open and gets it out quickly, with his pinpoint accuracy allowing him to spray all three levels. It's the kind of precision Denver hasn't seen from a quarterback since Peyton Manning retired.
It is truly impressive how Nix turned things around after an awful first few weeks. His first three career interceptions were painfully poor decisions. He threw for 60 yards against the Jets. Far too many had written him off after the first month. But with a sturdy defense and a Super Bowl-winning tutor in Payton, Nix has flipped that failing grade on its head. He's a force multiplier for an offense he's guiding with aplomb. He never makes the same mistake twice, can avoid pressure and make defenses pay with his legs, and his quick flick can get the ball to his receiver in a hiccup.
Since April, Payton made it obvious he believed Nix had the tools and makeup to shine in his scheme. It took time, but now it's clear to the world. I'm not positive Nix would thrive in another system with another coach, but he looks born to play under Payton -- both schematically and mentally.
There are sure to be more valleys ahead as the Broncos attempt to cling to a playoff spot, but after years of cycling through quarterbacks like a puppy goes through chew toys, Denver finally found a keeper.
Where would I put Nix and Daniels in the chase for rookie hardware right now? And what about the top first-year pros on the other side of the ball? Below, check out my top five candidates for OROY and DROY as we near the stretch run of the 2024 NFL season.
NOTE: The odds presented below are provided by DraftKings. They are current as of 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Nov. 20 unless otherwise noted.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Odds: -400 | Drafted: Round 1, No. 2 overall
After that glowing intro, it might surprise some that I still have Daniels as my leader for Offensive Rookie of the Year. My reasoning is simple: The depth of dominance still favors the Commanders' signal-caller. Yes, Daniels' play has dipped for two weeks, but that was partially because of the defenses faced. The other issue: He played through a rib injury that has surely affected the play-calling. Daniels has been less dynamic with his legs in recent weeks, as defenses key on that part of his game and coordinator Kliff Kingsbury appears to consciously try to protect the QB.
Two games make not a season.
Again, the door for Nix might have gone from shut to ajar -- per Pro Football Focus, Nix has splashed 12 big-time throws to Daniels' 11, while both QBs have recorded six turnover-worthy plays, leading to a turnover-worthy play rate of 1.6 percent for Daniels and 1.5 percent for Nix -- but it's not been kicked wide open yet. Daniels still has far more positives. For the season, Daniels has generated 67.1 total EPA and 0.18 EPA per dropback. Nix sits with marks of -34.2 and -0.08, respectively. Nix has one game with more than a 0.10 EPA per dropback (Sunday against Atlanta, when he posted 0.61). Daniels has eight such games, with a high of 0.68 in the win over Cincinnati. In games he's finished, Daniels has produced a negative EPA per dropback just twice. Nix has done it five times.
Recency bias shouldn't make us forget that Daniels led an offense that didn't punt for more than two complete games. His downtrodden franchise was facing a ton of question marks entering the season, and he negated most of those. His calmness in the pocket has been otherworldly, and he's helping overcome a defense that has clear holes. It's still his award to lose.
Odds: +300 | Drafted: Round 1, No. 12 overall
I don't need to rehash Nix's exploits, which were amply covered in the intro. It's worth noting that the top two players on this list were able to work up a ton of college experience, thanks partly to COVID-19-related eligibility extensions. Nix started 61 games in college and Daniels started 55. You can see it in each player's maturity and coolness under pressure. Game reps are invaluable.
Odds: +3000 | Drafted: Round 1, No. 13 overall
If Bowers is your top rookie, you'll get no spam from me. The tight end is putting up historic numbers. On Sunday, he generated 126 yards and a TD on 13 catches, the most receptions in a single game by a rookie tight end all time. It marked his second game with 10-plus receptions, tied for the most such games by a rookie TE. His 706 receiving yards trails only Mike Ditka (869) for most by a rookie TE through 10 games. His 70 catches are second most in the entire NFL, regardless of position. He's on pace to smash the rookie TE catches record (86 by Sam LaPorta last year) and Ditka's rookie TE receiving yards mark (1,076).
The fact that Bowers is already the most productive tight end of 2024, period, despite working with a shaky QB situation underscores the immense talent of the Georgia product.
Odds: +2500 | Drafted: Round 1, No. 3 overall
Maye won't have the numbers or team success to inch up this board, but it's impossible to watch the Patriots and not come away feeling like Eliot Wolf hit on the QB. Through just seven appearances (six starts), his stats aren't anything to write home about -- he's put up a 66.8 percent completion rate with 1,236 yards, nine TDs, six INTs and 6.5 YPA. He's also averaged -0.02 EPA per dropback, per Next Gen Stats. However, when you actually watch more than highlights, you can see Maye shine. He avoids pressure well and isn't afraid to stand in and take a hit to deliver a pass. He connects on at least one jaw-dropping throw per game. Yes, the end-of-game interceptions show he's got strides to make, but that will come with experience. He has the tools.
His ability to develop each week despite the dismal surroundings is remarkable. Lesser talents (SEE: Daniel Jones) sink behind the kind of porous blocking that Maye has dealt with. That he doesn't blink says a lot about his potential.
Odds: N/A | Drafted: Round 2, No. 51 overall
I debated putting Malik Nabers, Ladd McConkey, Bucky Irving, Brian Thomas Jr. and others in this spot. Instead, let's give the beef some love. I know an offensive lineman has zero chance of winning this award, but that doesn't mean Frazier's efforts need go unpraised. He has been a stabilizing force for the AFC North-leading Steelers. Stepping into the pivot, Frazier is a plus pass protector and already one of the better run blockers at his position. It's not a coincidence that Najee Harris has been more productive this season after the Steelers reworked the O-line. In eight games, Frazier has allowed just four pressures, per PFF, the fewest among all centers with at least 200 pass-blocking snaps.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Odds: +220 | Drafted: Round 1, No. 22 overall
We live in a world where QB disruptors get the edge when it comes to glory, so in the end, this award will probably go to the pass rusher I've ranked below Mitchell. But what's the point of all this if we never go out on a limb? Mitchell has been an absolute stud this season, and he's been a true lock-down force since the Eagles' Week 5 bye. In each of his past six games, Michell hasn't allowed more than 25 receiving yards as the nearest defender, per Next Gen Stats:
- Week 6 vs. CLE: 5 targets, 1 catch, 10 yards
- Week 7 at NYG: 4 targets, 2 catches, 15 yards
- Week 8 at CIN: 3 targets, 3 catches, 25 yards
- Week 9 vs. JAX: 3 targets, 2 catches, 23 yards
- Week 10 at DAL: 4 targets, 2 catches, 14 yards
- Week 11 vs. WAS: 1 target, 0 catches, 0 yards
Corner is a fickle position, as illustrated by the struggles this season of the last CB to win the DROY award, Sauce Gardner (2022). But Mitchell has impressed with traits that suggest his success is sustainable, smothering receivers with physical play and showing the athleticism to run stride-for-stride with his man. And it's not like he's slowed some bums, either; over the above six-game span, Mitchell faced the likes of Ja'Marr Chase, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Mike Evans, Drake London and Terry McLaurin.
Mitchell currently doesn't have a pick to his name, but if he can nab a couple of INTs down the stretch, he'll make some gains in this race. Maybe a few big plays in prime time -- while the Eagles soar into the postseason -- will prompt enough attention for the corner that he's able to steal the award.
Odds: -200 | Drafted: Round 1, No. 19 overall
More likely than the above scenario is Verse running away with the award as he continues to be a monster in the trenches, making offensive linemen look like rag dolls. Through 10 games, the linebacker has generated 50 QB pressures, a QB pressure rate of 19.3 percent, 4.5 sacks and 30 stops, per Next Gen Stats. That sack total might not stand out, but he ranks third in the NFL (among those with a minimum of 200 pass-rush snaps) in QB pressures and pressure rate. His 17 quick pressures are tied for ninth in the NFL.
To get a sense of why Verse seems like such a heavy favorite at this point, consider how his numbers stack up with recent pass rushers to be named the DROY (stats for each player through Week 11 of their rookie season):
- Nick Bosa, 2019: 49 pressures, 19.5% QBP rate, 7 sacks, 21 stops
- Chase Young, 2020: 21 pressures, 8.9% QBP rate, 3.5 sacks, 17 stops
- Micah Parsons, 2021: 39 pressures, 22.7% QBP rate, 8 sacks, 39 stops
- Will Anderson, 2023: 43 pressures, 16.2% QBP rate, 3 sacks, 26 stops
ODDS: +1400 | Drafted: Round 2, No. 40 overall
General manager Howie Roseman's rookie corners are showing out. DeJean entered the Eagles' starting lineup in Week 6, and his presence completely transformed Vic Fangio's defense. Instead of a question at slot, now Philly boasts a physical force who isn't afraid to step up versus the run, shows the instincts to feel where the play is flowing and has the athleticism needed to stick with the shifty receivers lined up across from him. Over the past six weeks, DeJean has allowed just 6.4 yards per catch on 25 receptions, per PFF.
Odds: +3500 | Drafted: Round 1, No. 21 overall
The addition of the Dolphins edge rusher here is pure projection. Robinson got off to a slow start that caught the ire of some Miami fans, but in the past several weeks, he's come on strong. The Penn State product earned both of his career sacks in two of the past three games. Since Week 8, he's generated a 20 percent QB pressure rate, better than Verse (16.2%) over that span, per NGS. For the season, on 171 pass-rush snaps, he has 31 pressures for a rate of 18.1 percent. If he keeps building upon his recent uptick, Robinson will come in as the second-best pass rusher in the class.
Odds: +4000 | Drafted: Round 4, No. 124
If we're talking long shots at this point anyway, why not go with one who packs a punch? Mustapha has added physicality to the Niners' secondary, bringing the wood like an old-school defender at least once per game. He might not grade out perfectly in coverage by some metrics, but he has generated -5.8 receiving yards allowed over expected as the nearest defender, per Next Gen Stats, while allowing a passer rating of 33.2. Mustapha's -44.6 completion percent over expected allowed is tops among all rookie DBs, per NGS. As nice as those numbers look, he rounds this list out mostly because he plays with an energy and ferocity that, frankly, is just fun to watch.
