- WHERE: Ford Field (Detroit)
- WHEN: 8:15 p.m. ET | Prime Video, NFL+
The NFL’s best division is heating up.
Thursday pits arguably the league’s best team, the 11-1 Lions, against the 9-3 Packers at Detroit’s Ford Field. The Lions won the first matchup in Green Bay on Nov. 3 and another win would strengthen their grip on the NFC North.
These are also two of the hottest teams in the NFL. The Lions haven’t lost since Week 2, winners of 10 straight. The Packers' last loss was in Week 9.
Green Bay’s offense has cut back on the turnovers and held its past three opponents to 19 or fewer points since their Week 10 bye. The Lions have also played good defense of late, holding their past six opponents to an average of fewer than 14 points, but injuries are mounting on that unit.
In the first meeting, the Lions exploited the Packers' mistakes -- penalties, dropped passes, a pick-six -- on a rainy Lambeau Field. Detroit had 150 fewer yards of offense back in Week 7 but played a much cleaner ballgame, building a 24-3 lead in the third quarter, and controlled the time of possession.
The Lions can clinch a playoff spot strictly with a victory Thursday night, but they also could lose to the Packers and still earn a berth in Week 14. The Packers can’t clinch in Week 14, but winning in Detroit could open the door for them stealing the division down the home stretch.
Here are four things to watch for when the Packers visit the Lions on Thursday night on Prime Video and NFL+:
1) Packers must avoid self-inflicted mistakes like last time. The Lions have a way of making opponents hurt themselves, and it was on full display in Week 9. Green Bay moved the ball all game long but shot itself in the foot way too often. The Packers committed 10 penalties, six of them on offense. There were at least half a dozen dropped passes. A missed field goal. Whifs on blocking assignments in short-yardage situations. And Jordan Love committed the big doozie, a brutal pick-six right before halftime that put the Packers behind the 8-ball. The Packers went on bye after that game and have emerged a more efficient outfit. They’ve had only 15 penalties and one turnover in three games since. Kicker Brandon McManus has been perfect since then, too. They’ve been much better on third downs the past two games, converting 50%. It’s hard enough to beat the Lions, a team Green Bay has now lost to five of the past six times, without committing a litany of errors. But a clean game will give the Packers a shot in this game, especially after the Lions looked vulnerable against the Bears at home on Thanksgiving.
2) Lions defense hopes to hold together amid injuries. You can’t fault much of what the Lions have done this season, especially with their vast improvement on the defensive side of the ball. However, injuries are starting to pile up and threaten this unit’s depth, talent and effectiveness. Aidan Hutchinson and several other front-seven contributors are out for the regular season. Linebacker Alex Anzalone and others are likely out multiple weeks still. And on the recent front, Levi Onwuzurike and Joshua Paschal have been ruled out. All three levels of Detroit’s defense have been slashed by injury. The Lions have been lucky not to have faced a gauntlet of offensive firepower recently, but this is the type of game where it could really hurt. Ex-Packers pass rusher Za’Darius Smith will be counted on for an extended role, and noted Green Bay problem Kerby Joseph will be hunting down Love’s passes all night. But make no mistake, coordinator Aaron Glenn will have his hands full dealing with this Packers offense with his thinned ranks on defense. Love can get hot quickly. He has six targets with 21 or more catches. Josh Jacobs also has been a dual-threat workhorse.
3) Packers must win the turnover margin. The Lions don’t turn the ball over often, but they’re a different offense when they do. They have had six games with zero turnovers and six games with one or more. In the turnover-free games, they’re averaging 40.2 points; in the other six games, that average drops to 23.7 points. Of course, the Texans are the only team to force more than two turnovers against the Lions this season, all five of them coming on Jared Goff picks. In Green Bay's win over the Lions in Detroit last season, Goff threw for 332 yards and two TDs, but the Packers sacked him three times and forced him to lose three fumbles. On Thanksgiving, the Packers sacked Tua Tagovailoa five times in the 30-17 victory. Even with Tua’s big passing game (365 yards, two TDs), the negative plays tilted the game. The same could play out Thursday night. The Packers likely need to steal a possession or two or hold the Lions down in the red zone. Getting into a shootout with the Lions might not be the best idea. Love has had his first two turnover-free games the past two weeks, and Jacobs hasn’t fumbled in 10 games. They’ll be the key couriers Thursday night.
4) Lions’ run game could be key to victory. Goff is having a terrific season, and has as good a top receiving trio as any QB, throwing to Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta. But the Lions also boast perhaps the league’s best 1-2 punch at running back with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, who combined for 138 rush yards against Green Bay in the first meeting. Green Bay was able to cap most big plays against them, but the duo consistently grinded for runs at nearly five yards a clip. Each of them is averaging more than 80 yards from scrimmage per game. Slow them down and the Packers will have a chance in this game. The Packers have allowed 120 or more rush yards in each of their three losses. In the other four wins in which they gave up 120-plus on the ground, the Packers only won by a combined 14 points. Thankfully, their run defense has been excellent the past two games, allowing a total of 83 rush yards and zero TDs against the Packers and Dolphins.
