- WHERE: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
- WHEN: 8:15 p.m. ET | Prime Video, NFL+
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons have played two of the tougher schedules in the NFL so far this season, with both teams sitting in decent or better shape prior to their important Week 5 matchup.
The 3-1 Bucs rebounded from a bad home loss to throttle the Eagles last Sunday. The Falcons engineered their second game-winning drive of the season in the final minute to even their record a 2-2.
The Bucs have run the NFC South the past four seasons, and they’re in the pole position now prior to Thursday’s matchup in Atlanta. The teams split their meetings a year ago, with the road team winning both.
But the Bucs are preparing for a vastly different Atlanta team than the one they’ve seen previously. Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins is off to a tepid start but has delivered in some key spots and spread the ball around well. The Falcons still have room to grow offensively, too.
Atlanta is 1-0 in the division but 1-2 so far at home. Thursday will provide a big opportunity to even out their mark at Mercedes-Benz Stadium after two close losses there previously, to the Steelers and Chiefs.
Every Falcons game this season has gone down to the final minute. Are we in for another down-to-the-wire thriller on Thursday?
Here are four things to watch for when the Buccaneers visit the Falcons on Thursday night on Prime Video and NFL+:
1) Bucs still seeking consistency on offense. Baker Mayfield is on pace for a 4,000-yard, 30-plus TD season, and Chris Godwin is on pace for his finest season since his breakout year of 2019. The Bucs also have found a hidden gem in rookie RB Bucky Irving, who has led the team in rush yards in three of the first four games. But in between the strong Week 1 and Week 4 offensive showings, the Bucs struggled to move the ball at times against the Lions and Broncos, scoring only seven points in the home loss to Denver. Right tackle Luke Goedeke (concussion) hasn’t played the past three games, and the short week leaves him out for Thursday. The same holds true for rookie WR Jalen McMillan, who missed last week’s game. Even though Tampa has moved the chains fairly well overall, they’re a bit lacking in the big-play department. The Bucs have also had some issues in pass-protection issues, with Mayfield being sacked 15 times in four games. If they struggle to protect the Falcons, who rank 32nd in sack percentage, then the problem might be bigger than we realized.
2) Falcons could stand to get Kyle Pitts going. The Falcons will honor Matt Ryan at halftime of Thursday’s game, inducting him into the team’s Ring of Honor. Perhaps Cousins can get in Ryan’s ear at some point, if for no other reason than to help crack the Pitts conundrum. Pitts looked like a budding star in 2021 with Ryan as his quarterback, catching 68 passes for 1,028 yards in his rookie season, but it took him the next two seasons to match that yardage total. The new staff has had as much trouble getting him the ball consistently as the old staff did. Pitts has eight catches (on 15 targets) for 105 yards and a touchdown this season. Nearly half those yards came on a 50-yard play against the Chiefs where Pitts was tackled at the 1-yard line. That was a big-play glimmer, but those have been too far and few between. The Bucs have defended tight ends fairly well this season, allowing only 16 catches for 152 yards and no TDs, although Pitts had two of his better games last season against Todd Bowles’ defense, which returns a lot of pieces from that unit. The Falcons would love nothing more than for Pitts to break out in a big divisional game in primetime, helping open up more options for Cousins and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson.
3) Tampa’s defense must keep the pass-rush momentum going. The Buccaneers defense hasn’t set the world on fire the first portion of the season, but it deserves credit for holding up amid some injuries. Todd Bowles’ unit pinned its ears back against the Eagles, sacking Jalen Hurts six times on Sunday. That was an important development after a sub-par performance against the Broncos and rookie QB Bo Nix. The Bucs also allowed the Lions to move up and down the field readily in Week 2, but a tremendous showing in the red zone (Detroit was 1 for 7 down there) helped them escape with a win. It will be interesting to see if the pass-rush success from Sunday translates to this game. The Eagles were shorthanded on the offensive line, but so are the Falcons, with center Drew Dalman on injured reserve and RT Kaleb McGary possibly out for another game after missing Sunday. Their replacements held up well last week against the Saints, but the Bucs’ front looked reenergized with the return of NT Vita Vea. Cousins’ new center, Ryan Neuzil, could have his hands full all night.
4) Falcons must make more game-changing plays on defense. You’d safely describe defensive coordinator Jimmy Lake’s defense as a bend-but-don’t-break unit. They’re defending the pass fairly well overall, especially downfield, allowing only four plays of 20 yards or longer all season. Yes, you can complete passes against them (73.5% completions allowed), and the Falcons’ run defense (145.5 yards per game allowed) can stand to tighten up. But the biggest issues have been sacks and turnovers forced. The Falcons are dead last in the NFL with only four sacks, continuing what has been a multi-year concern, even with the addition of Matthew Judon, who has an 8.1% pressure rate, via Next Gen Stats -- his lowest through the first four games ever in his career. Grady Jarrett remains a force inside, but he’s less than a year removed from a torn ACL. Atlanta also has only four forced turnovers in four games. In two victories, the Falcons are plus-2 in turnover margin, with Troy Andersen’s 47-yard pick-six a massive turning point on Sunday; in their two losses, they’re minus-3. Opponents have controlled the clock against Atlanta, averaging 35:28 in possession. Forcing turnovers is crucial, but it's going to be even tougher against a Bucs team that has coughed it up only three times and with Andersen nursing a pectoral injury.
