I want to start with a rare victory lap. Around this time last March, following a frenzy of player movement, this space absolutely nailed the top candidate for a turnaround in the 2024 NFL season. The Philadelphia Eagles are still celebrating their Super Bowl domination of the Kansas City Chiefs, and their free agency was so good last year that they spent part of this offseason doubling down on their haul -- extending Saquon Barkley and re-signing Zack Baun.
I choose not to look at the rest of the list, since my No. 2 turnaround candidate was the New York Jets, quickly followed by the Atlanta Falcons. Wrong and wrong. The Washington Commanders did make the list (correct) ... although it was also noted that the team's appearance should not be mistaken for a prediction that it would make the playoffs (laughably wrong).
The Eagles and Commanders are the poster children for how quickly team fortunes can change -- friendly reminder that, at this time last year, the Eagles were coming off an end-of-season collapse and changes to both coordinators -- with very smart personnel acquisition and hole filling. Neither is on the list this year because both are far beyond the turnaround phase. They are what the teams on this year's list aspire to. One caveat: Neither the Steelers nor Giants appear on this rundown because their quarterback situations remain muddled, as Aaron Rodgers contemplates his future.
Full disclosure: The Bears were also on last year’s list, almost entirely on the strength of expectations for No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams. But the reset for 2025 has been dramatic, headlined by the hiring of Ben Johnson as head coach and turbocharged during free agency, with the overhaul of the interior of Chicago's offensive line (Williams was sacked 68 times last season). The Bears also signed defensive tackle Grady Jarrett and rising edge rusher Dayo Odeyingbo to play opposite Montez Sweat. The NFC North is still a beast of a division, but shoring up the trenches, particularly the offensive line, should help Chicago get much more out of Williams and the offense.
There was no way around the obvious talent deficit the Patriots operated with last season, which surely contributed to the one-and-done coaching tenure of Jerod Mayo. The response under new coach Mike Vrabel was one of the biggest Foxborough spending sprees in recent years -- through the first week of free agency, the Pats signed players to contracts with a combined total value of $279.3 million, the most in the NFL, according to Spotrac. That money bought a defensive overhaul that included defensive lineman Milton Williams, pass rushers Harold Landry and K’Lavon Chaisson, cornerback Carlton Davis and linebacker Robert Spillane. Vrabel is building a tough, physical defense. New England still needs more weapons for quarterback Drake Maye and a playoff spot might be another year away in the loaded AFC, but this activity should at least put the Patriots on the rise again.
Admittedly, it’s odd to think a team that finished above .500 needs a turnaround, but every season without a postseason appearance in Cincinnati during the Joe Burrow era should be considered a disappointment. The most encouraging thing we heard this offseason was Zac Taylor telling us at the NFL Scouting Combine that the Bengals are looking at every possible thing that could be contributing to their historically slow starts. Last year, they lost their first three and started 1-4, sinking them in a hole deep enough that even the brilliance of Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase’s triple-crown season couldn’t get them into the playoffs. One thing that will help a lot: The Bengals got blockbuster contracts done for Chase (now the highest paid non-quarterback in the NFL) and Tee Higgins, and they got them done in March, meaning both will be able to participate fully in offseason programs and training camp. A raft of (re-)signings on the defensive side -- Joseph Ossai, B.J. Hill and Cam Sample among them -- will look a lot better if the Bengals manage some salary cap gymnastics to keep star pass rusher Trey Hendrickson in the fold, too. Al Golden is taking over as defensive coordinator, and decent improvement in the defense should be enough to boost a team that will go as far as Burrow and Co. can take it. With Mike Gesicki also returning, Burrow’s to-do list for the front office is nearly complete -- Hendrickson is the last one not finished -- and that sets the stage for Cincy to again contend for AFC supremacy.
The trade for quarterback Geno Smith was one of the stunners of this March, and it also was one of the clearest upgrades at any position. Tight end Brock Bowers was an All-Pro as a rookie -- he caught 112 passes for nearly 1,200 yards despite substandard quarterback play -- so imagine what he should do with Smith, who completed 70 percent of his passes last year. The presence of Pete Carroll means a proven system will be in place, the kind of organization that has been lacking for this franchise. Las Vegas still needs a lot more pieces, but with Maxx Crosby fully onboard, Tom Brady having input on decisions -- and acting as a recruiter -- and Carroll bringing his vaunted culture, the seeds have been planted for the Raiders to finally build something sustainable.
Convincing Myles Garrett to back down from his trade demand and stay in Cleveland -- albeit with a market-resetting contract -- was a very big win for a team that badly needed one. Signing Maliek Collins should help bolster the pass rush, which is absolutely imperative in a division that also features Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow. The most important question about the Browns -- the quarterback -- is still unanswered, though. They traded for Kenny Pickett, who could be a placeholder, met with Russell Wilson and could make a move if Kirk Cousins becomes available for trade. And, of course, the Browns have the No. 2 overall draft pick. No matter what direction they turn, the QB play they get in 2025 can hardly be worse than what they received from Deshaun Watson last year. With Watson likely out the entire season following an Achilles’ re-tear, the Browns can finally turn the page from that failed experiment. This team won 11 games in 2023 with a revolving door of backup quarterbacks starting a total of 11 games (Kevin Stefanski was the NFL Coach of the Year that season), so a modest turnaround -- no matter who plays quarterback -- should not be that hard to accomplish.
