Ten players who could be misvalued in NFL free agency

After shining under Kevin O'Connell, Darnold has earned the right to be given a long-term contract. How the season ended would scare me from committing big bucks to the former first-round pick. Yet, as the top signal-caller bound for free agency (unless he is franchise-tagged), that's probably where his market is going. Darnold steadied the Vikings and showed an ability to win close games, but he also got away with some misses, credited with 25 turnover-worthy plays by Pro Football Focus, tied for most in the NFL (including playoffs). Would he continue to thrive outside of KOC's cushy offense and without the league's highest-paid receiver on the roster? If I were a club with offensive line questions, I'd be wary of shelling out $40 million annually for Darnold, who can get scattershot under pressure. Baker Mayfield is making $33 million per year on his three-year pact with the Bucs. Personally, I'd rather have Mayfield straight up, let alone when the potential price difference is factored in.

Stanley is coming off one of his best seasons and he finally stayed healthy, playing a full slate of games for the first time since he entered the league in 2016. He remains one of the better tackles, able to win on an island. However, the combination of his extensive injury history and his age -- he'll turn 31 in March -- makes Stanley a gamble. Given the general dearth of quality offensive linemen, OTs who actually hit the open market will have dinero tossed at them, similar to how quarterbacks are pushed up draft boards every year. If the Ravens are willing to risk losing Lamar Jackson's blind-side protector by letting him hit free agency, doesn't that say something about his value?

As the Bengals' push to retain Tee Higgins underscores, talented receivers with few blemishes rarely reach free agency. Teams line up to lock down those types of difference-makers one way or another; the main way to add a stud wideout is to draft or trade for one. As such, almost every receiver hitting the open market does so with question marks. Some are older. Some are coming off injury. Some are older and coming off injury. Cooper struggled in 2024. In his first six games, the 30-year-old logged 24 catches for 250 yards and two scores in the Browns' moribund attack. A midseason trade to Buffalo to join MVP Josh Allen did little to jump-start his play; over eight regular-season games with the Bills, Cooper generated just 297 yards and two scores. He struggled with drops and dealt with a wrist injury that cost him two games. Was the nosedive in production tied to health -- and, thus, something he can bounce back from -- or a sign of the former first-rounder's advancing age? Cooper's presence here highlights the wariness that should be brought toward each of the 30-something wideouts peppering free agency.

The pluses: Harris is a durable, consistent bulldozer who can eat up snaps, run through defenders and move a pile. The minuses: He lacks any semblance of second-level burst, has averaged 3.9 yards per carry over his career and offers little explosiveness. In 1,097 career carries, Harris has never logged a run longer than 37 yards. There is value in his game as a reliable player who has never missed a contest and can take a beating. If this were an "Angry Runs" competition, sure, he'd be near the top of the list. But his free agency foray shouldn't be close to what we saw last offseason with Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs, who inked deals providing $12 million-plus per year. Harris simply isn't in their class. Perhaps offseason projections running $9 million to $11 million are overzealous, and the depth of the running back draft class will winnow that figure down. Or maybe the lack of RB1s hitting free agency will lead to a nice payday for Harris in March.

Williams' play during the Eagles' run to a Lombardi Trophy -- including in Super Bowl LIX, when he logged two sacks, one of them a strip-sack -- likely made him a heap of cash. At 25 years old with burgeoning potential, he's the type of beef clubs will fight over on the open market. Williams owns the size and athleticism to push the pocket, as his 12.5 QB pressure percentage suggests. The hesitancy is whether he's worth $21 million-plus per year. As a part of Philly's rotation, he's started just 19 games in four seasons, with 11.5 total sacks. Free agency is about projecting the future rather than paying for past production, and in that regard, I wouldn't fault a team for falling in love with Williams' potential. The former third-rounder has an outstanding skill set, but we've seen others wither after moving out of a rotation. Can Williams be a big-money anchor? Is he worth Dexter Lawrence or Quinnen Williams money? Playing next to Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis, Williams was double-teamed on just 36.3 percent of his pass rushes in 2024. How will he do if that figure jumps significantly?

Greenlaw will probably have to take a one-year prove-it deal after an Achilles injury suffered in Super Bowl LVIII last February wiped out most of his 2024 season -- and then when he did return, in Week 15, he made two starts before suffering a calf injury that landed him on injured reserve. A short-term agreement is probably smart for all parties, allowing Greenlaw to hit the market again next year while keeping his team safe in case he can't bounce back. But I'm betting he does; I'm betting on the difference-maker Greenlaw previously proved to be on the gridiron. In one half of football in 2024, he showed how much better the 49ers defense was when he was active. He's still 27 years old, and I'd be willing to roll the dice on a return to form in 2025.

Reddick surely did not help his value last season, when he was traded from the Eagles to the Jets, then held out until late October -- and made little to no impact once he did show up, generating one sack and 14 tackles in 10 games with Gang Green. He broke a streak of four consecutive campaigns with 11-plus sacks. Reddick's 2024 decisions seemed perplexing from the outside, and the 30-year-old probably doesn't have the market right now to get the payday he sought last year. But he could be a good gun for hire in the right defense on a one-year pact. I'm willing to bet he didn't forget how to rush the passer.

I worry that the market for offensive linemen will be rife with overpays, but Jackson could slip into the underpaid category. A former undrafted free agent, Jackson proved to be a rock on Matthew Stafford's left side over the past two seasons. Regardless of who is under center in L.A. in 2025, a solid tackle is necessary for Sean McVay's offense to operate. While he might not be an All-Pro, Jackson is steady as both a run-blocker and pass-protector. His 22 QB pressures allowed in 2024 matched the likes of Dion Dawkins in Buffalo, per Pro Football Focus. Jackson's positive run-blocking from the left side also aided L.A.'s vital rushing attack. If my choices are to spend around $15 million for a still-developing 26-year-old blind-side blocker or $20 million-plus for an over-30 injury-prone option, give me the former.

This could be a swing-and-miss on my part, as Moehrig might have a stronger market than I anticipate. However, GMs have mostly eschewed spending on safeties in free agency in recent years. If they do so again, Moehrig could offer some C.J. Gardner-Johnson-type dividends. A playmaker who has improved every season, Moehrig showed versatility in the past two years, playing more toward the line of scrimmage (104 tackles in 2024). He's generated five INTs, 18 passes defended and three sacks since the beginning of the 2023 campaign. At 25, he's the type of still-growing, multi-talented safety teams should want in their secondary.

Browning landed on injured reserve with a foot injury in September, then was squeezed out of the rotation in Denver, leading to a midseason trade to Arizona. With increased opportunity, the former third-round pick upped his production, generating 21 of his 29 QB pressures last year in the desert, per Next Gen Stats. For the season, Browning earned a solid 14.1 quarterback pressure rate. From Weeks 10-18, that rate jumped to 15.9 percent, the 14th-best mark among edges with at least 100 pass rushes over that span. That figure is sandwiched between Brian Burns (16.2%) and Myles Garrett (15.8%). I am not suggesting Browning is of that ilk; rather, that data point suggests there is a lot more meat on the bone for the Ohio State product. The 26-year-old boasts athleticism and is still growing. There are holes to his game, including against the run, but given his age and upside, Browning is the type of short-term investment teams should look for in free agency, especially if it comes at a bargain rate.