Fantasy football 2024: 11 bounce-back candidates

Mahomes was the reigning fantasy QB1 entering 2023. He went on to throw for more than 4,000 yards and win Super Bowl LVIII MVP, delivering a second straight title to Kansas City. However, he finished as the QB8 overall in fantasy. The culprits? A career-low 4.5 percent touchdown rate, a minuscule 6.5 average in intended air yards (third lowest in the league) and a whopping 34 drops by his receivers (most in the league). Between simple regression to the mean and the addition of wideouts Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy this spring, Mahomes has an excellent chance to ascend back to his rightful place in the top tier of fantasy quarterbacks.

Murray spent the first half of last season recovering from a torn ACL and the second half with career backup Greg Dortch as his top wideout. Still, Murray was the QB10 in fantasy points per game and set a full-season pace of more than 500 rushing yards and six rushing scores. Now he enters 2024 after a fully healthy offseason and with fourth overall pick Marvin Harrison Jr. as his top target. In 28 career games with an elite WR1 (namely, DeAndre Hopkins), Murray has averaged a monster 24.2 fantasy points per game. Very few quarterbacks offer Murray’s combined value as both a passer and a rusher. If healthy, he has the upside of a Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson, at a much lower draft price.

Rodgers made this list last year after a disappointing 2022 campaign, but his chance to bounce back ended four snaps into the season when the Jets QB tore his Achilles. A year later, Rodgers should be healthy heading into Week 1 (after likely sitting out the entire preseason). Very importantly, the Jets significantly upgraded their offensive line with the additions of Tyron Smith, John Simpson, Morgan Moses and 11th overall draft pick Olumuyiwa Fashanu. Given his ADP at QB20 in the double-digit rounds, it seems most of the fantasy public believes Rodgers is washed. I don’t. He’s a sleeper QB1 with legitimate top-six upside.

Jacobs was solid with the Raiders last season, to the tune of 1,101 scrimmage yards and six scores in 13 games, but it was certainly a step down from the year prior, when he led the league in rushing with 1,653 yards. Now he’s taken his talents to Green Bay, where he sits comfortably atop the depth chart in a much better offense than the unit he played in last season. The Packers ranked 11 spots higher than the Raiders in scoring offense and 16 spots higher in total offense in 2023. Rookie MarShawn Lloyd should get some playing time and AJ Dillon is still in the mix, but Jacobs -- whose 1,502 touches since 2019 are second to only Derrick Henry during that span -- is in line for a bell-cow workload. Jacobs is a lock to score well above his 2023 finish of RB27.

Meanwhile, former Packers running back Aaron Jones signed a prove-it deal with Minnesota after he was released by Green Bay this offseason. He missed six games in 2023 and fell below 1,000 scrimmage yards and seven touchdowns for the first time since 2018. He did average more than 1,400 scrimmage yards per season from 2019 through 2022, though. Upon returning from injury in Week 15 last season, Jones averaged 103 rushing yards per game and was the fantasy RB11 over the last four weeks of the season. He figures to be a focal point in an offense managed by some combination of Sam Darnold and rookie J.J. McCarthy. If he carries his end-of-year momentum into 2024, Jones could provide big draft value.

After finishing as the fantasy WR16 as a rookie and the WR7 in 2022, Waddle slipped to WR34 in 14 games played last season. Missing three games certainly hurt, but Waddle was still just the WR23 in points per game, primarily because he was limited to a career-low four touchdowns. That was largely the result of an absurd 34 touchdowns going the way of the running backs -- including 21 by Raheem Mostert and 11 by De’Von Achane. That figures to balance out at least a little in 2024. Waddle is extremely talented and the Miami offense, led by the newly paid Tua Tagovailoa, should be humming. Waddle will be back in WR2 territory this season.

Watson has had a couple of rollercoaster years to start his career. He spent the first half of his rookie season injured or unproductive, then exploded with seven touchdowns in a four-week span. He missed the first three games and the last five games of the 2023 season but scored five touchdowns in between. Watson has dealt with hamstring injuries in each of his first two seasons, something he addressed this offseason by working on leg strength symmetry. If it finally results in a healthy season, Watson would be the favorite to lead a crowded Packers wide receiver room and become Jordan Love’s top target, which could lead to a finish inside the top 12 at the position.

Kupp won the receiving triple crown just three years ago and scored a wide receiver record 439.5 fantasy points. Unfortunately, he’s missed 13 total games with injuries in the last two seasons, resulting in back-to-back disappointments. With the ascension of Puka Nacua, some now question whether there’s even room for Kupp to be a top fantasy wideout again. I believe he can still be that guy. Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford are more than capable of supporting two star receivers -- as the Rams did in 2019, with Kupp and Robert Woods each posting 1,100-plus yards under Jared Goff. If Kupp can stay healthy, he’ll be a threat for WR1 upside.

After finishing as the fantasy TE6 with Matt Ryan at quarterback in 2021, Pitts has suffered back-to-back seasons outside the top 10. He played in all 17 games in 2023, but he recorded just 667 yards and three touchdowns, with backup tight end Jonnu Smith posting 582 yards and three touchdowns of his own. Heading into 2024, the arrow is pointing up for Pitts: Desmond Ridder has been replaced by Kirk Cousins, Smith has moved on to Miami and the 23-year-old Pitts is another year into his development. He is my No. 2 tight end value at his draft price of TE6, so I expect him to finish in the top five with a major bounce-back season.

Kelce continued to build his case as one of the all-time greats, finishing as the fantasy TE3 last season. So, what is he doing in the bounce-back article? Well, after posting 1,000-plus yards in seven straight seasons and nine or more touchdowns in four of the last five campaigns, Kelce finished 2023 with 984 yards and five scores. He scored a “mere” 219 fantasy points, nearly 100 fewer points than he had the year prior. Some would say the 34-year-old has reached the twilight of his career, but considering it was only two years ago that he set career highs in catches and TDs, I’m not sold on that narrative. I think Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense will have a more explosive season in 2024. Kelce will be a major benefactor.

I see similarities between Kyle Pitts and Freiermuth. Both had great rookie years playing under longtime star quarterbacks, but both have struggled mightily in the years since while catching passes from some of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league. Both received major QB upgrades this offseason, with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields joining the Steelers after the failed Kenny Pickett experiment. Pitts’ former head coach, Arthur Smith, is now Freiermuth’s offensive coordinator, bringing his willingness to feature the tight end position to Pittsburgh. Both players made my top tight end values article, in which I mentioned that I expect Freiermuth to post a TE1 season with stud-tier upside. I’m projecting the 25-year-old to double his 2023 fantasy points and provide a huge return on his draft value.