Player projections are solid barometers for week-to-week fantasy expectations -- but they aren't always right. We're here to help you navigate those numbers and make the optimal decisions for your fantasy lineup by breaking down a handful of NFL.com fantasy point projections each week.
As always, check out our NFL Fantasy rankings for more!
HIGHER
PROJECTED POINTS: 16.9
Matt: Mayfield went into what felt like a mini-slump around the Bucs' Week 11 bye, logging 14 fantasy points per game in Weeks 9-13. Since then, he's thrown for at least 280 yards and three touchdowns in back-to-back games. He just torched the league’s third-best scoring defense for 288 yards and four scores en route to a 40-17 win over the Chargers. And with Jalen McMillan stepping up alongside Mike Evans in Chris Godwin's absence, Mayfield once again has a strong WR1-WR2 duo with which to shred opposing secondaries.
On top of that, Mayfield gets a Week 16 matchup with the Cowboys, who rank 29th in fantasy points allowed to the position and 30th in real-life points allowed. Heating up again in their pursuit of a playoff berth, Baker and the Bucs should score at will against Dallas.
PROJECTED POINTS: 14.4
Michelle: In the pouring rain last Thursday night, Stafford scored just 8.2 fantasy points. Prior to that, though, he put together a string of solid performances, notching at least 15.6 points in each of the previous four games, topping 19 points in three of them. Even with a couple of disappointing showings mixed in, Stafford has averaged 18 fantasy points per game over his last eight games. The Jets used to be a frightening defense, but that certainly is not the case of late. Since Week 10, the Jets have allowed 28.7 fantasy points to Kyler Murray, 28.1 to Anthony Richardson, 23.5 to Tua Tagovailoa and 18.7 to Mac Jones.
PROJECTED POINTS: 14.0
Matt: Hubbard was a major disappointment last week, scoring just 8.9 fantasy points against a beatable Dallas defense -- and without Jonathon Brooks being around to steal touches. I’m chalking it up as a fluke. Hubbard has topped 14 points eight times this season and had 107 scrimmage yards against the Eagles just one week prior.
Fortunately, the Cardinals boast another soft run defense -- ranking 26th in fantasy points allowed to RBs and 25th in NFL Pro’s defensive rushing efficiency -- and load the box at the lowest rate in the league, according to Next Gen Stats. Hubbard should see enough open lanes and red-zone carries to hit this threshold in your fantasy semis and should be viewed as a fringe RB1 once again.
PROJECTED POINTS: 14.8
Michelle: There are many reasons to be down on Taylor entering a huge week in the fantasy playoffs. Taylor has hit 14 fantasy points once in his last six games after averaging 18.3 points per game over his first five games in 2024. Last week, he let go of the ball to too early, fumbling right before the end zone to wipe away a rushing touchdown -- it would have been his first ground score since Week 8. Despite all of that, I believe the tide will change in Week 16 with a monster performance against the Titans. Taylor has had over 20 carries in four of his last five games, and the Titans have allowed the most scrimmage touchdowns to the running back position this season. In the last three weeks, Chase Brown, Brian Robinson Jr. and Chris Rodriguez Jr. have all scored more than 15 fantasy points against the Titans.
PROJECTED POINTS: 13.6
Matt: Amidst the second-half breakout of Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Metcalf has fallen somewhat to the wayside in Seattle. He’s topped 14 fantasy points only once since Week 4 (with multiple absences and a Week 10 bye in that stretch). Betting on a sudden bounce-back in the fantasy semifinals seems risky ... or reasonable, based on research.
The Vikings are a “deep funnel defense” (if such a thing exists); they rank first in passer rating allowed on quick passes and sixth in passer rating allowed on short passes, but they plummet to 19th in passer rating allowed on deep passes while allowing the fourth-most receiving yards on deep balls, per Next Gen Stats. Metcalf leads the Seahawks in every key category on deep passes and has the highest air yards per target on the team. Whether Geno Smith (who expects to play) or Sam Howell is under center for Seattle, I think we get a vintage performance from Metcalf this Sunday.
PROJECTED POINTS: 9.2
Michelle: With Evan Engram going on IR, Strange took advantage of his opportunity in Week 15, putting up career highs in targets (12), receptions (11), receiving yards (73) and fantasy points (18.3) against the Jets. This was in line with Strange's performance in the four prior games Engram missed this season; he recorded at least 9.2 fantasy points in all but one of them. Strange gets a favorable matchup this week against the Raiders, who have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends this season. A tight end has hit 10-plus fantasy points against Las Vegas six times since Week 8 -- Jonnu Smith (28.1), Mike Gesicki (27.0), Travis Kelce twice (25.0 and 13.8), Drew Sample (11.4) and Cade Otton (10.0).
LOWER
PROJECTED POINTS: 20.4
Michelle: It seems like every great player has one opponent that has his number, and the Pittsburgh Steelers are that team for Lamar Jackson. The Ravens QB has averaged just 13.7 fantasy points over his five career starts against the Steelers, breaking the 15-point barrier only once while never scoring more than 18. When the two-time MVP faced his rivals last month, he produced a season-low 14.9 points. Jalen Hurts found great success against Pittsburgh last weekend, but he is the only quarterback to hit the 20-point mark against the Steelers this season.
PROJECTED POINTS: 14.9
Matt: I’m curious how Hall ended up with a projection this high despite topping 14 points just once in his last six games. He's looked consistently hampered by a knee injury during that stretch and now is dealing with the presence of multiple talented backups (Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis). Even in a game like last week's, when the Jets scored a season-high 32 points against an awful Jaguars defense, Hall managed just 51 scrimmage yards and 13.1 fantasy points.
The Rams look middle-of-the-road against fantasy backs, but a huge chunk of the points they’ve allowed came earlier in the season ... or against Saquon Barkley in Week 12. Hall would likely need to catch half a dozen passes or score a TD -- maybe two -- to top this projection. He’s a low-end RB2, which means you might have better options for your starting lineup.
PROJECTED POINTS: 11.0
Michelle: Harris has finished with dismal fantasy point totals in three of his last four games: 7.4 in Week 12, 11.3 in Week 14 and 3.1 last week, when he tied a career low in carries (six) while playing on just 32.6 percent of the Steelers' offensive snaps. That was the lowest play-time percentage of his NFL career (not counting games in which he was injured). Harris has all but disappeared from the Steelers' passing attack, logging one total target in his last two games. That bodes especially ill for Harris because since Week 2, the Ravens have allowed just one opposing running back (Saquon Barkley) to amass 11 or more points without recording at least three receptions.
PROJECTED POINTS: 11.3
Matt: After scoring double-digit fantasy points in three straight games and posting a season-high 111 yards against the Bills last Sunday, LaPorta appears to be back in business as a star tight end -- the key word being appears. While the seven catches on 10 targets in Week 15 were superb, they came as a result of Jared Goff's 59 pass attempts in a wild shootout. That won’t be happening against Chicago this week.
When LaPorta faced the Bears just three weeks ago, he had three catches for 6 yards ... and it just so happened that two of those catches ended up in the painted area. LaPorta does not hit this projection without a TD and could fall short even if he gets one. He’s still a TE1, but not a reliable one.
