Who is the first pick in fantasy football this year? That question is easy to answer -- at least I hope it is. No need to overthink Christian McCaffrey, people. But beyond the no-brainer at No. 1 overall, what do we do when things get unpredictable? What happens when somebody swipes the player you were counting on being there for your draft slot? Well, we have a plan!
The best way to prepare for your fantasy drafts is to break up your rankings into tiers. That way, you're ready if/when there is a run on quarterbacks. Or when somebody steals Dalton Kincaid from you. Which is something that just happened to me. And to answer the inevitable questions: Yes, some people draft this early; and yes, some leagues place a real premium on the tight end position. But I digress. Let's get back to the task at hand ...
I'm going through the four cornerstones of fantasy football -- quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end -- and providing tiered rankings for each position heading into the 2024 NFL season. It's an easy and efficient way to organize your draft thoughts. Savvy? Let's take a look at today's subject matter: RBs.
Tier 1
- I know some people are apprehensive about Christian McCaffrey because they're afraid he's going to get hurt. That was the case last year, too, which allowed a bunch of folks drafting third and fourth to pounce on the all-around superstar and ride him to a league title. The man hasn't suffered any serious health issues over the past two seasons, just signed a lucrative extension this offseason and heads into the 2024 campaign as the leading producer on one of the league's very best offenses. Like I said in the intro above, you really don't need to spin your wheels on this one.
- Breece Hall was the RB2 in PPR scoring last year, despite receiving just one goal-line carry (i.e., from the 1-yard line). Hall did have six games with 125-plus scrimmage yards -- a total that figures to increase in 2024 if Aaron Rodgers plays more than four snaps.
- Bijan Robinson's getting plenty of buzz these days, with talk of him being Atlanta's CMC. Remember when Dameon Pierce was going to be Houston's CMC? I'm kidding. While I admittedly loved Pierce heading into last season, Robinson is a safer bet in this spot. Personally, I'd prefer the other two backs in this tier, but I won't be shocked if Bijan's the first running back taken in a lot of drafts.
Tier 2
- Jahmyr Gibbs finished as the RB8 in points per game last season (16.1 in PPR formatting), even with the Lions slow-playing the first-round pick. He had 52 receptions and 11 total touchdowns.
- Saquon Barkley did have availability issues at times during his Giants tenure. But if he can stay healthy, playing for a better team -- and in a better offense -- could provide the kind of fantasy resurgence Christian McCaffrey has enjoyed since joining the 49ers.
- The Rams fully committed to Kyren Williams down the stretch last season. I expect him to be prominently featured again this fall, even though a lot of you love third-round pick Blake Corum.
- Last year, Travis Etienne posted 20-plus fantasy points in six games -- the most for a Jaguars back since Maurice Jones-Drew in 2011. If you draft Etienne, Tank Bigsby is worth a handcuff at some point, but Jacksonville still figures to lean heavily on the RB1.
- James Cook averaged close to 20 touches per game after the Bills swapped in Joe Brady as their offensive coordinator in mid-November. And the third-year back should be even more of a focal point this year with WR Stefon Diggs (and his 160 targets from 2023) out the door. Buffalo's offense will run through Cook.
- We all dreamed about Derrick Henry landing in Baltimore ... and it actually happened! Monster year incoming.
- De'Von Achane just finished his rookie season as the RB5 in points per game (17.3 in PPR formats). He averaged nearly 23 fantasy points per game when he received at least 10 touches. The electric back just needs better health in 2024.
- Alvin Kamara is still looking for a new contract. I think something is going to get done at some point.
Tier 3
- In PPR scoring, Joe Mixon is the only running back to finish in the top 12 at the position during each of the last three seasons. He's been the model of consistency. I love this opportunity for him in Houston. Mike Shanahan's offense was always a fantasy boon for RBs, and Texans OC Bobby Slowik is a branch off that coaching tree.
- David Montgomery still figures to get most of the goal-line work in Detroit. The Lions averaged 2.1 goal-line rushes (inside the 1-yard line) per game in 2023, which was the most in the NFL.
- What's in store for Josh Jacobs after the 26-year-old received his big payday with the Packers? Is motivation a concern for a running back whose play has fluctuated from year to year? People like the narrative that he's going to be a great cold-weather back -- isn't that what AJ Dillon was supposed to be? The thing is, Matt LaFleur doesn't seem to maximize his RBs, at least from a fantasy perspective. Derrick Henry really broke out after LaFleur left his post as Titans offensive coordinator to become Packers head coach. Aaron Jones had his moments in Green Bay, but I was always left wanting more.
Tier 4
- The Bears have a very crowded backfield, but they wasted no time in signing D'Andre Swift this offseason. That, at least to me, signals Chicago aims to use him a lot.
- Rachaad White scares me. He was the RB10 in fantasy points per game (PPR scoring) but was second in the league in touches, behind only Christian McCaffrey. That makes him a huge regression candidate if he starts losing work in that backfield.
- Zamir White could either have the best season in fantasy football or the worst. OK, that's a little aggressive, but this RB just seems so volatile to me. He had 328 rushing yards in the final three weeks of last season. Is that enough for you?
Tier 5
- If I'm taking a running back from the Titans this season, I'm going with Tyjae Spears. He was pretty damn effective in a limited role as a rookie backup to Derrick Henry. He also had a 10.0 percent explosive rush rate (runs of 10-plus yards) -- the six-highest mark among qualified RBs in 2023.
- I like Arizona RB1 James Conner a lot, but I would be willing to take a flier on Trey Benson at this point in the draft. The rookie has a lot of upside; he's more than a handcuff to me.
- Austin Ekeler had a miserable 2023 campaign. Was that the beginning of the end, or can he bounce back in Washington? I'm willing to take the 29-year-old in this range, especially with him playing alongside dual-threat QB Jayden Daniels.
Tier 6
- With Greg Roman reuniting with Jim Harbaugh in Los Angeles, the Chargers supplied the offensive coordinator with a couple of familiar faces from his Baltimore days in Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins. This makes a lot of sense. But you're pretty much banking on both players being healthy and not being usurped by a rookie. (I'll get to him in a moment.)
- Third-round pick MarShawn Lloyd could end up carving out a huge role in the Packers' offense.
Tier 7
- All right, this is where I'm going to get a little weird. The Chargers have two running backs in front of sixth-round pick Kimani Vidal. And I understand a lot of you hate making speculative adds in fantasy, instead waiting to scramble on the waiver wire in Week 8. But why not try to be the person who already has the young stud on your roster when opportunity knocks? You don't need to keep two defenses and an emergency kicker.
- I'm curious to see how the Dolphins backfield shakes out. Fourth-round pick Jaylen Wright has legitimate backs in front of him, but keep an eye out if the Dolphins ultimately decide to move a veteran like Raheem Mostert.
- There is a theme here in this tier. Fifth-round pick Audric Estimé might get a lot of playing time, especially if Sean Payton sours on Javonte Williams. Jaleel McLaughlin showed juice last season as an undrafted rookie, but I'm not going to be shocked if Estimé ends up having a serious impact here. And look, you might not have a deep enough bench to stash all three of the guys I just mentioned. Try to have one.
Tier 8
- Alexander Mattison is on the outside looking in for the Raiders, but still worth keeping an eye on -- especially if you draft Zamir White.
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire is one of those guys who keeps hanging around and hanging around. The internet would break if something happened to Isiah Pacheco, thrusting CEH back into the RB1 role. Though I feel like I've said this before.
- We already discussed Denver's crowded backfield. Turning 29 in September, Samaje Perine might be the odd man out.
