Who is the first pick in fantasy football this year? That question is easy to answer -- at least I hope it is. No need to overthink Christian McCaffrey, people. But beyond the no-brainer at No. 1 overall, what do we do when things get unpredictable? What happens when somebody swipes the player you were counting on being there for your draft slot? Well, we have a plan!
The best way to prepare for your fantasy drafts is to break up your rankings into tiers. That way, you're ready if/when there is a run on quarterbacks. Or when somebody steals Dalton Kincaid from you. Which is something that just happened to me. And to answer the inevitable questions: Yes, some people draft this early; and yes, some leagues place a real premium on the tight end position. But I digress. Let's get back to the task at hand ...
I'm going through the four cornerstones of fantasy football -- quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end -- and providing tiered rankings for each position heading into the 2024 NFL season. It's an easy and efficient way to organize your draft thoughts. Savvy? Let's take a look at today's subject matter: TEs.
Tier 1
- I know many of you don't believe in Sam LaPorta yet, but he had 107 receptions for 1,065 yards and 11 touchdowns last season, including the playoffs. Fun fact: Mike Ditka is the only player in NFL history to post more receiving yards and receiving touchdowns as a rookie tight end (1961). LaPorta might not match last year's marks in 2024, but he can still be productive even if he doesn't score touchdowns at the same rate. He's a perfect complement to Amon-Ra St. Brown.
- Many of you might be ready to move on from Travis Kelce after he had his lowest fantasy output since 2015, but that's a huge risk to take. He's still the focal point of his offense. I have him ranked behind LaPorta because I like to ride with the hot hand.
- I'm a huge Dalton Kincaid fan this year. I know a lot of you will say, "Wait, what happened to Dawson Knox?" He's still in Buffalo (and still on this list), but the Bills tight ends were on the same team last season, too, and Kincaid consistently outproduced Knox when both players were active. Also, there are 160 targets up for grabs, with Stefon Diggs departing in the offseason.
- Mark Andrews, healthy again after missing seven games last season, finished 14th in total fantasy points among tight ends in 2023, but he averaged 13.5 fantasy points per game, which ranked fifth.
- Trey McBride ranked second among tight ends in receptions (53) and third among tight ends in receiving yards (538) in the eight games Kyler Murray started last season, which is great. I look for No. 4 overall pick Marvin Harrison Jr. to eat into that production a little bit. I'm still confident enough in McBride to put him in the first tier.
Tier 2
- I know, I know. You don't want to draft Kyle Pitts because you've been let down by him before. But what if I told you he's one of four tight ends with 1,000-plus downfield receiving yards (10-plus air yards) since 2021? His new quarterback, Kirk Cousins, has the best completion percentage (56.0) and passer rating (115.5) on such throws in that span (min. 300 such attempts), per Next Gen Stats. Now you don't know what to think. I dropped him to the second tier because I know you're all scared, but don't be bummed if you end up with him on your team.
- George Kittle averaged 12.7 fantasy points per game last season, his lowest mark since his rookie season. We could see him bounce back in a huge way, especially if the 49ers end up honoring Brandon Aiyuk's trade request, but if that doesn't happen, he's still George Kittle. He's going to be good. He might even be a steal, given his ADP.
- We saw David Njoku reach new highs with Joe Flacco at quarterback down the stretch last season. I expect Njoku to keep that momentum going into this season. He's averaged less than nine fantasy points per game in Browns QB1 Deshaun Watson's starts with Cleveland, but I can't ignore the end-zone targets -- Njoku tied for the lead among tight ends last season with nine.
- Brock Bowers could be this year's Sam LaPorta. I expect the Raiders to run a bunch of 12 personnel (two tight end) sets with Bowers and Michael Mayer, which is great, because potential QB1 Gardner Minshew has a passer rating above 110 in 12 personnel sets during his career.
Tier 3
- The Bears have some big-name wide receivers, but Cole Kmet has been rock solid over the last few years. He averaged 11.3 fantasy points per game last year. His numbers might go down this year, with so many quality pass-catching options for the Bears, but he's among the best fantasy TE2s available.
- Pat Freiermuth struggled last year, missing significant time due to injury and averaging a little under seven fantasy points per game. I'm willing to take a chance on him as a TE2, because right now, he looks like the second-best target option for the Steelers.
Tier 4
- Noah Fant missed out on a lot of potential production last year sharing time at tight end with Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson. Those two players departed Seattle in the offseason, though. So, Fant's numbers could see a big uptick, with journeyman Pharaoh Brown and rookie AJ Barner now backing him up. I still wouldn't break the bank for Fant, but he's worth a late-round flier in deeper leagues.
- Isaiah Likely did a great job in Mark Andrews' absence last year, but with Andrews returning healthy, I see Likely moving back into a complementary role.
- Jelani Woods looked promising before a hamstring injury kept him out for all of last season. I like him a lot in deeper leagues, especially if we get a healthy version of Anthony Richardson.
