Fantasy football 2025: 10 overvalued/undervalued NFL players to know before you draft

Average draft position: Round 1 (RB2)

When I proclaimed early in the spring on the NFL Fantasy Podcast that I wouldn’t be drafting Barkley at cost in 2025, I thought of it as a hot take. Now that we’ve moved into July, it seems to be an argument that has gained a lot of steam. I’d like to credit myself with starting a movement. I mean ... I didn’t. But I’d still like to credit myself with it. 

Call it Beware the Magical Season. Call it The Curse of 370. I like to call it The 2K Conundrum. Before Barkley’s blow-up 2024 season, eight players had rushed for 2,000 in a single season. The following year, those players averaged 966 fewer rushing yards. Only two of the eight reached 1,300 rushing yards the next season. A 1,200-rushing yard season from Barkley wouldn’t be a terrible thing. But it wouldn’t be worthy of a top-three fantasy pick.  

Average draft position: Round 1 (RB5)

You’re excited about Ashton Jeanty. I’m excited about Ashton Jeanty. We’re all excited about Ashton Jeanty. But folks, let’s keep our wits about us. No, this isn’t going to be a tired don’t overdraft a rookie take. It’s a much more nuanced don’t overdraft a Raider take. 

Based on ADP, nine of the first 12 running backs being selected in fantasy drafts played in top-15 scoring offenses last year. Aside from Jeanty, the two who did not play in top-15 scoring offenses are Jonathan Taylor (RB9; Colts -- 17th in scoring) and Kyren Williams (RB11; Rams -- 20th in scoring). You could easily make the case that Williams and the Rams would have scored more if they didn’t have to spend a month without Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. 

Meanwhile, the Raiders last year were the NFL’s fourth-lowest scoring outfit. They also had the fourth-most pass attempts of any team. Those are poor ingredients for a fantasy running back, even with an improved QB situation in Las Vegas. Jeanty will get plenty of touches over the course of the season, but he could also be a victim of game scripts way more than a top-five back should be.

Average draft position: Round 3 (WR14)

On the surface, it feels like Go Time for Smith-Njigba. He’s coming off a breakout season and led the Seahawks in every major receiving category. Plus, the Seahawks moved on from DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. But what if it’s a case of subtraction by subtraction? Cooper Kupp joins the 'Hawks’ Nest, after showing signs of decline last season. That is expected to force JSN to move from his slot position to the outside. That wouldn’t be worrisome on its own. But combine it with a new quarterback (Sam Darnold) and a new offensive coordinator (Klint Kubiak) and it feels like there will be growing pains.

Part of Kubiak’s mission is to incorporate the run game more than previous OC Ryan Grubb did. Seattle had the NFL’s fifth-lowest run play percentage last year, per Team Rankings. That could already put a ceiling on the team’s passing output. By the way, has that offensive line improved from last year? You know, when Geno Smith was sacked more than all but two quarterbacks. Vikings fans can tell you a thing or two about Darnold under pressure. Brother, it wasn’t great. Watch Week 18 and the subsequent playoff game, if you dare. Because his passing projects to be narrowly funneled, Smith-Njigba could win on volume but don’t be surprised if the first month of the season looks rough.  

Average draft position: Round 4 (RB17)

The 2025 draft’s running back class was touted as one of the best we’ve seen in years. That hype was supported by having two backs taken in the first round. Ashton Jeanty was the consensus RB1 on draft boards, but Hampton earned buzz as a guy who could be the most productive of the group in Year 1. That sounds fun. There’s just one little problem: Najee Harris still walks the Earth. 

Don’t get it twisted. This isn’t a grand defense of Harris. He was a perfectly Average Joe during his four seasons with the Steelers. Harris and Jaylen Warren were a decent 1-2 punch that helped move Pittsburgh’s offense without ever being true fantasy darlings. Now Harris moves to the West Coast to keep the tradition of adequacy alive. If both players are healthy -- Harris is recovering from an eye injury -- they’ll eat off each other’s plates all season. Chuba Hubbard, James Conner and D’Andre Swift are all available in the same range and have far less competition for touches. Those feel like safer options than a rookie splitting touches.  

Average draft position: Round 5 (RB24)

At this point, you’re probably convinced that I hate this year’s rookie class. I don’t hate the players. I hate the game. My concern with the group is that so many of the guys Draft Twitter liked ended up either in bad offenses (Ashton Jeanty) or in backfields without clear paths to production (Omarion Hampton, Harvey).

Let’s be clear: Sean Payton hates our fantasy teams. It’s hard to think otherwise based on his actions versus his words. Just ask anyone who’s rostered Marvin Mims Jr. Despite Payton’s comments about getting Mims more involved in the offense, it still appears (based on Mims’ snap counts) that the two have never met in person. On the running back side, Payton spent the offseason talking up Audric Estimé and Jaleel McLaughlin. But the real coup de grâce was Denver signing JK Dobbins fresh off a career year with the Chargers. It’s unlikely that all four of those players will factor into the Broncos’ run game, but it still feels like too crowded a running back room to fully trust any of them, especially with a fifth-round price tag.

Average draft position: Round 5 (RB21)

This could come back to bite me, but I’m increasingly all in on the Bears offense. With Ben Johnson at the controls, I’ve already proclaimed Caleb Williams as a 4,000-yard passer. He’s working with an intriguing group of pass-catchers, including rookies Colston Loveland and Luther Burden III. But maybe the most overlooked piece of the puzzle is the man in the backfield.

Swift scratched the surface of his potential in 2023 with the Eagles when he ran for 1,049 yards. Even with a offensive line downgrade last year in Chicago, he posted a career-high with 1,345 scrimmage yards. Through it all, Swift has been good for at least 39 receptions in every year of his career. On top of the skill-position additions, the Bears made offensive line upgrades. Neither Roschon Johnson nor rookie Kyle Monangai look to be serious threats to Swift’s touches. Spending a fifth-round pick on a lead back with receiving chops in an emerging offense feels like a no-brainer to me.

Average draft position: Round 6 (WR27)

Williams’ NFL career opened in fits and starts. A knee injury suffered in the College Football Playoff National Championship robbed him of most of his rookie season. The following year, he missed Detroit’s first four games while serving a suspension for violating the NFL’s gambling policy. Last season, he finally had a conventional offseason and turned it into a breakout year, even with a two-game suspension for violating the league's performance enhancing substances policy. 

Williams was more than a field-stretcher for the Lions. While his 11.3 air yards per target led the team, he was also second in yards after the catch. Nearly half of his targets (44 of 91) were within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. That kind of dynamic usage combined with Williams being targeted on nearly 20 percent of his routes last year suggests the Lions could explore more ways to get the ball to the explosive playmaker. I want as many pieces of Detroit’s offense as I can get. The potential No. 2 target should be going earlier than the sixth round. But if that’s where he lands, take the discount and thank your league mates later. 

Average draft position: Round 9 (WR43)

Recency bias is a helluva drug. The 49ers offense had been an attack that we all wanted pieces of for years. Then 2024 happened. Christian McCaffrey had a failure to launch. Brandon Aiyuk suffered a season-ending knee injury in October after a lengthy summer hold-in. The team finished 6-11 and was a middle-of-the-pack scoring offense. As such, Niners players have found themselves with much lower ADPs than we’re used to seeing this time of year. 

That could work in fantasy managers’ favor, especially in the case of Jennings. He’s coming of a season in which he blew away his career-highs in targets, receptions and yards. He should be the lead target for a good part of the season with Aiyuk still recovering from his injury. If the offense can maintain good health, a forgiving schedule means the Niners could go back to being one of the NFL’s more productive attacks. That makes Jennings a better value than many of the wideouts around him who are either in projected bad offenses (Jakobi Meyers) or uber-crowded receiver rooms (Matthew Golden and Jayden Reed), as long as the calf injury Jennings is currently dealing with doesn’t linger into the regular season. Last year was a disappointment for San Francisco, but I feel like we’re weighing it too heavily versus a bigger recent body of work. 

Average draft position: Round 8 (TE9)

One word describes the Cleveland Browns offense in 2024: uncertain. You could probably have come up with a lot of other words to describe the offense. But let’s go with uncertain. From quarterback to running back to a lot of the receiving corps, not much is set in stone with this group. About the only two players you can rely on are Jerry Jeudy and Njoku. 

After a scorching end to 2023, Njoku saw some regression last year. Missing six games with injuries didn’t help. But there were still some underlying metrics that could make you feel good about his season. He boasted nearly 75 percent route participation in games in which he appeared. He also was targeted on more than 26 percent of his routes -- best among Cleveland’s pass-catchers who ran 15 or more routes in 2024. In fact, Njoku has seen a target rate of 21 percent or better in each of the past three seasons. That makes up for his paltry 5.6 air yards per target in that span. Then again, with an uncertain (there’s that word again) QB situation behind a suspect offensive line, running short routes that allow for quick throws could be a boon for fantasy managers willing to take a chance on a Browns player. 

Average draft position: Round 7 (WR37)

Did I mention I’m enamored with the Bears offense this year? Every year, there’s a team or two that become deeper fantasy options than we anticipated. Who could have imagined Baker Mayfield taking the Buccaneers to a higher level a couple years ago? Or that Jayden Daniels would elevate Washington as much as he did? It’s worth believing Chicago is the next offense to make the leap. 

Odunze’s rookie season was a mixture of underwhelming combined with flashes of intrigue. You could say the same for the Bears offense overall. Nonetheless, a 19 percent target share with a team-best 33 percent air yards share is reason to believe Odunze could ascend in 2025. Not to mention the 121 targets that Keenan Allen leaves behind. Compared to some of the other receivers going in the same range (Jordan Addison, Deebo Samuel and Cooper Kupp, to name a few), Odunze offers a much higher potential ceiling. If he can raise his floor, he’ll easily outperform his ADP.