When we last left our fantasy football heroes ... well, there were too many things going on to reasonably recount in the intro to this column. Suffice to say, mistakes were made. Lessons were learned. We made friends along the way. A good time was had by all. Or by most. And that's really all that's important, right?
Wrong.
It's about winning championships. That's why you bought all those subscriptions. It's why you did all those mock drafts. It's why you set up a separate list on all those social media apps specifically to follow every national insider and beat writers from all 32 teams. And it's why you're digging into a fantasy football column in late July when teams have barely been in training camp long enough to go through a full news cycle.
Because we're all trying to get a leg up on the rest of our competition. If you're early to the news, you're on time. If you're on time for it, then you're late. And if you're late to the news, well, you might as well just autodraft your team.
(Don't actually do that. Unless you want the rest of the people in your league to be salty with you.)
If you've been paying attention this entire offseason, you'll scroll through this list and scoff at half of the names here. Either you already know what I'm telling you or you think I'm a moron for including them.
Regardless, thanks for clicking and scrolling. If you're just tapping in, welcome. We're glad to have you back this year.
As for what you're doing here, the headline should have told you. In case you're still not sure, I've put together a list of 10 quarterbacks who could outperform their fantasy Average Draft Position (ADP). Finding values isn't a guarantee that you'll win your league. But it's always better than overpaying. Take it from someone whose family seems to prefer gourmet pizza over the dollar slice variety. Sigh.
Hopefully this serves you better than premium pepperoni. Good luck and welcome back!
NOTE: Average draft position is based on a 12-team format and FantasyPros consensus rankings as of 11 a.m. ET on July 30.
Average draft position: Undrafted
Am I really doing this? Yeah, I think I am. Forget all the attention-seeking, drawn out will he or won’t he hemming and hawing that we endured for months this offseason. There’s a case to be made that Rodgers still has something left in the tank. He threw for more than 250 yards and/or multiple touchdowns five times in the Jets’ final six games last season. It came long after the team was eliminated from playoff contention, so it felt a little hollow.
This year, Rodgers is another year removed from the Achilles injury that robbed him of the 2023 season. He’s also (probably) on his final stop with something to prove to the haters (of which there are many). How he coexists with DK Metcalf in an Arthur Smith offense remains to be seen, but it would be crazy to deny that the old guy can still conjure up a couple of weeks of fantasy magic here and there. We’ve long passed the point of Rodgers being a weekly QB1, but for anyone seeking a late-round dart throw or waiver wire lottery ticket, you could do worse.
Average draft position: Round 15
The 2024 season was a rollercoaster for Young. After two poor games to start the season, the second-year QB was benched in favor of Andy Dalton. That move turned out to be ... ungood. Before long, Young was back in the starting role. Whatever happened during the benching had a positive impact on the former No. 1 overall pick. He was one of the most improved players in the league during the second half of the season and touched fantasy relevance.
An underrated part of Young’s ascendance was his ability to run the ball. Over the final eight contests, he averaged 26 rushing yards per game. That’s not a huge number but it’s notably more than his 6.8 rushing yards per game in the first half of the season. The number that stands out even more is the five rushing touchdowns he had in the second half of the season. The rushing yardage total isn’t a high bar to reach. Matching or exceeding it would be a good start to his increased relevance. If he can similarly raise his passing production with a receiver room that hopes to improve from last year (looking at you, Tetairoa McMillan), a high-end QB2 finish isn’t unthinkable.
Average draft position: Round 14
I am nothing if not stubborn. Last season, I touted Tagovailoa as being a bargain option in the eighth round. After all, he started 2023 as a house afire before a late-season swoon dropped him to a QB9 finish. Things were off to a positive start in 2024 before yet another concussion sidelined him for a month. When he returned, the results were uneven, but there were more positives than negatives in his weekly fantasy production. From Weeks 8-16, Tua was a top-12 quarterback -- including a four-week run leading into the fantasy playoffs where he averaged 25.2 points per game.
This year, the season-long fantasy expectations for Tua and the Dolphins are diminished. Tyreek Hill is being drafted in the third round. Jaylen Waddle is barely a WR3. Tua is being drafted as the QB20. The doubt is already being baked into Miami draft prices. Here’s a chance for managers to take advantage. A healthy Tua has been a productive Tua. With such an inexpensive ADP, you can benefit in the potential rewards without incurring a large amount of risk.
Average draft position: Round 15
Since Matt Ryan’s retirement, the Falcons have been hunting high and low for an A-ha moment at quarterback. Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder and a broken-down Kirk Cousins haven’t provided sufficient answers. What we saw from Penix last year was a small sample size, but it was enough to make me believe Atlanta might have something to work with here. In his three starts at the end of last season, Penix showed weekly improvement. It culminated with his 312-yard, two-touchdown performance against the Panthers in Week 18. Digging deeper into the numbers, there are encouraging metrics. Penix posted a positive EPA against the blitz and was willing to take deep shots on 14 percent of his throws, per NFL Pro.
Now that he’s been given the keys to the offense, it will be intriguing to see what he can do. The playmakers are certainly there with Bijan Robinson and Drake London as the headliners. And yes, we’re trying not to get too excited about Kyle Pitts again, though Penix himself is making that difficult. With few real fantasy expectations among the masses, the second-year signal-caller will be undrafted in many leagues, leaving plenty of space to be a waiver wire hero if he can reach his high-QB2 ceiling.
Average draft position: Round 14
Stafford has long been the Patron Saint of the Church of Waiting on A Quarterback. His days as a top-10 fantasy option are long behind him, but Stafford still flashes value as a fringe QB1. He got off to a slow start last season, in part because he was working without Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua for a handful of games. Once the Rams offense was at full strength, we saw the Stafford magic. He was the QB7 from Weeks 8-14, averaging nearly 20 points per game before a late-season fade.
With Davante Adams joining the Ramily, Los Angeles’ offense gets a wide receiver upgrade over the declining Kupp. And after drafting tight end Terrance Ferguson, Sean McVay’s offense could go heavy on 12 personnel this year -- something that became a bigger part of the attack late last season with much success. Stafford won’t be many managers’ QB1, but his continued longevity combined with McVay’s ingenuity gives him a great chance to outperform an ADP that’s already as low-risk as it could possibly be. Of course, the outlook for Stafford changes if his sore back lingers into the regular season as a major hindrance, but it appears the Rams are being proactive to avoid that scenario.
Average draft position: Round 10
Over the past five years, Prescott’s biggest nemesis has been health. He missed 11 games in 2020, five games in 2022 and nine more in 2024. A healthy Prescott has been one of fantasy’s most reliable quarterbacks. He’s finished as a top-12 signal-caller in every season where he’s appeared in 16 or more contests. It’s helped that Dallas' offense has morphed to become more Dak-centric over the years. Since 2020, only four teams have had more dropbacks than the Cowboys.
Things are a bit different in 2025. Brian Schottenheimer takes over as head coach and play-caller. George Pickens replaces Brandin Cooks in the wide receiver room. The offensive line added another young piece in first-round rookie Tyler Booker. Through it all, Dak’s availability will be the ability that best dictates how far this offense can go. A healthy campaign this year could cement Prescott’s place among the Many Saints of the Church of Waiting on A Quarterback.
Average draft position: Round 13
Maye’s rookie season was one of those you had to be there moments. Just looking at the raw statistics, there’s very little that would make you buy in for Year 2. But when you watched the young quarterback play, you understood why the Patriots spent the No. 3 overall pick on him. Maye’s ability to extend plays and gain yards on his own helped him make the best of a poor supporting cast. Relying on Hunter Henry and DeMario Douglas as your top targets will only get you so far. Nonetheless, he averaged more than 17 fantasy points per game in contests where he played a full game.
New England returns with some offensive upgrades. Stefon Diggs will try to prove he has something left after an ACL tear cut short his stay with the Texans. The Pats will also hope that third-round pick Kyle Williams can break the franchise’s long track record of futility in developing wide receivers. New England re-enlists Josh McDaniels, who returns for his third stint as the Patriots’ offensive coordinator. With the current draft asking price, you won’t need Maye to be your starter every week. But if he can raise his ceiling, you might consider it.
Average draft position: Round 9
To put my own spin on a line from 18th-century English poet Alexander Pope, hope springs eternal in the human breast; Justin Fields never is, but always to be blest. Fields has shown fantasy QB1 bona fides but hasn’t done enough to lock down the starting gig long-term for an NFL team. It’s tough to score fantasy points when you’re not on the field. (Insight like that is why I get paid the medium-sized bucks!) Yet it hasn’t stopped fantasy managers from drooling over Fields’ potential. He averaged more than 19.5 fantasy points per game as a full-time starter in 2022 and 2023. He was also the QB6 through the first six weeks of last season before Russell Wilson took over the starting job in Pittsburgh.
This could finally be the year. Fields lands with the Jets and won’t have to look over his shoulder to see who could take his job. New offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand wants Gang Green’s offense to “play fast” and “be explosive” -- something he undoubtedly learned while working with Ben Johnson in Detroit the past several years. We know the rushing upside exists, but if Fields can tap into his playmakers like Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall, a top-10 finish is within the range of outcomes. Let’s just hope his toe injury isn’t anything too serious.
Average draft position: Round 6
Some folks might say Mahomes is properly valued. Some might say he’s overvalued. Few, if any, would say Mahomes is undervalued. Kansas City was once reliable for big plays through the air but recently has become Chiefs of the Checkdown. Mahomes’ 6.3 air yards per attempt and 4.0 air yards per completion in 2024 were both the lowest totals of his career.
Mahomes was able to make it work in 2022 after Tyreek Hill’s departure with Marquez Valdes-Scantling having a career year and JuJu Smith-Schuster giving us one last gasp of fantasy relevance. Since then, the closest things to a deep threat the Chiefs have had have been an inconsistent Justin Watson and a declining DeAndre Hopkins. This year, Kansas City will attempt to reload with Hollywood Brown (if healthy), a more experienced Xavier Worthy (currently in concussion protocol) and a flourishing Rashee Rice (potential league suspension notwithstanding). If Andy Reid was sincere when he told Worthy to “get your hamstrings ready,” the Mahomes deep ball could be back.
Average draft position: Round 10
A year ago, I predicted Williams would have 3,500-3,700 passing yards with 20 or more touchdowns. By the time we got to Week 1, I had been swept onto the hype train and predicted he would be a top-10 fantasy quarterback. Alas, I should have stood on business. Williams finished his rookie season with 3,541 yards and 20 touchdowns. That was good enough to land him as QB15. Not terrible. Not great, either.
I’m ready to reiterate my original Caleb Williams proclamation: 2025 is the year he becomes the first 4,000-yard passer in Chicago Bears franchise history. With Ben Johnson pulling the strings on an offense featuring talented pass-catchers and a dynamic running back, there’s plenty to like. By the way, don’t overlook Williams’ rushing upside. Last year, he rushed for 489 yards, seventh-most among quarterbacks. If he can duplicate those numbers while improving his passing totals, he should easily outperform his later-round ADP.
Marcas Grant is a fantasy analyst for NFL.com and a man who should probably slow down on the coffee. Send him your tales of over-caffeination or fantasy football questions on Bluesky @marcasg.bsky.social or TikTok at marcasgrant.
