Looking for a leg up on the rest of your fantasy league? Then you need to go beyond the typical rankings and projections and dig into other factors that will shape the performance of players who can make or break your season -- such as a change in offensive philosophy.
Below, I've identified players whose fantasy value should get a boost from the presence of a new offensive play-caller in 2024, as well as players whose value can take a hit.
Players who could gain fantasy value
New Panthers head coach Dave Canales has become known as a bit of a QB whisperer in recent years. Two seasons ago, he was the QB coach for Seattle when Geno Smith had his resurgence; last season, he was the OC for Tampa Bay when Baker Mayfield enjoyed his return to glory. Now, he will attempt to go three-for-three with Young. The 2022 Seahawks and '23 Buccaneers each finished in the top eight in passing touchdowns. They also featured receivers who had big campaigns. Last year, Mike Evans was a monster, finishing seventh in fantasy points among receivers. The year prior in Seattle, both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett were in the top 16. Johnson should be next in line to eat in Carolina, and he is a screaming value as a WR4 in current fantasy drafts. Meanwhile, there is upside for Young to be a top-15 fantasy QB this season. Also, do not overlook Jonathon Brooks. Canales' offenses have had a top-20 fantasy RB in each of the last two seasons, including Rachaad White's RB4 season last year, when he was just peppered with targets.
New Falcons OC Zac Robinson is yet another branch from the Sean McVay coaching tree. Others include Matt LaFleur, Kevin O’Connell, Zac Taylor, Shane Waldron and Thomas Brown. So, you can certainly say there is a history of success there. While Robinson has never called regular-season plays before, that’s not necessarily a bad thing for fantasy purposes. Wacky usage drove fantasy managers crazy during the Arthur Smith era. Using London and Pitts in a more traditional way and feeding Bijan Robinson more would be steps in the right direction. Add in the upgrade at QB via Kirk Cousins, and the arrow is pointing up for Falcons stars.
While new Titans head coach Brian Callahan was not the play-caller as OC in Cincinnati, he did help orchestrate game plans for an offense that ranked top seven in points, passing yards and passing touchdowns twice in a five-year span. His offenses also ranked among the top seven in passing attempts in three of those years. That is what I am expecting him to bring to Tennessee. For years, the Titans have been one of the more run-happy offenses. The biggest winners here are Levis and Ridley. More volume never hurts a player’s fantasy outlook. Callahan has discussed using Ridley in the Ja’Marr Chase role in his offense. Levis and Ridley bring immense fantasy upside, and you do not need to pay up for either. The RBs are surely to be utilized in the passing game. The only issue is they are very similar talents, with similar ADPs. In fact, OC Nick Holz has described Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears as interchangeable.
New Bucs OC Liam Coen also comes from the Sean McVay coaching tree. Coen has spoken about using Godwin in the slot more, where he has been highly effective. Last year, Godwin’s receiving EPA in the slot was nearly double what it was out wide. Coen has said Godwin could be utilized in the same way the Rams use Cooper Kupp. The best part is, you can still get Godwin as a WR3 in drafts. Mike Evans could lose out on some volume with the change in OC, but he should still see enough targets to be a top-15 fantasy WR. I have the same concern with Rachaad White, who remains one of the most inefficient runners in the NFL. If his targets decrease, he will have a tough time living up to his ADP.
Kliff Kingsbury is the new OC in Washington, but we watched his offenses for four years during his time as head coach in Arizona. The Cardinals ranked among the top 10 in rushing attempts in two of his four seasons at the helm. They ranked in the top 10 in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns in three of those four years. They finished in the top 10 in passing attempts only once in that span. This is a good thing for both Austin Ekeler and Brian Robinson Jr., as there should be a lot of volume. I prefer Ekeler of the two. The biggest winner, though, is Daniels. Kingsbury has a lot of experience working with young QBs who can run. Kyler Murray finished among the top 12 quarterbacks in fantasy PPG in every season he played with Kingsbury and was in the top seven in three of those four years. Daniels brings high upside, even as a rookie.
Seahawks OC Ryan Grubb comes from the Washington Huskies, who just had a QB and three receivers drafted before the end of Round 3 in April. Last season Grubb’s offense threw on 62 percent of its plays, the eighth-highest rate among all Power 5 schools. It ranked fourth in deep-pass attempts (23 percent) and sixth in explosive-pass rate (21 percent). So, we should expect there to be a lot of deep attempts this season. That helps Metcalf, who remains a WR2 in fantasy but can be a WR1 on any given week. Jaxon Smith-Njigba brings breakout upside, as well. The Seahawks threw the ball at a higher rate than league average, but they ran a slow-paced offense and had the fewest offensive plays in the NFL. A faster-paced offense will only help for fantasy purposes.
New Eagles OC Kellen Moore is coming off a one-year stint with the Chargers that did not go well, but his offense was also very banged up. Prior to that, Moore had a four-year tenure as OC for the Cowboys in which they finished top six in points in all three years Dak Prescott was healthy. His offenses tend to throw deep and use three-receiver sets at a higher rate than league average. His offenses also feature a lot of motion -- the Chargers used it at the fifth-highest rate of any team last season. Neither Brown nor Smith have double-digit targets while in motion in the last two years. Meanwhile, Keenan Allen had 54 last year and turned them into 446 yards. There is a chance that one, or both, post their best years yet.
Players who could lose fantasy value
Based on the histories of new head coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman, we can assume the Chargers are going to run the ball a ton. Harbaugh was previously head coach of the 49ers from 2011 to 2014, and in that span, San Francisco ranked third in the NFL in rushing attempts and 31st in pass attempts. During his tenure in Michigan, Harbaugh ran the ball at the eighth highest rate of all Power 5 schools. Meanwhile, Roman has been an offensive coordinator in 10 previous seasons, and in each of those years, his teams have finished in the top 10 in rushing yards and rushing attempts, with seven top-three finishes in carries. So Herbert should not be drafted as a QB1 in fantasy football, regardless of his health status as he deals with a plantar fascia injury. That said, the Chargers' running backs should have significant value, with Gus Edwards bringing a safe floor and Kimani Vidal looking like the upside play. And while there won't be a ton of throwing, the Bolts' offense should be highly efficient and feature lots of play action, and Ladd McConkey should thrive in that environment.
New Raiders OC Luke Getsy served as offensive coordinator for the Bears in the past two seasons, and in each of those years, Chicago ranked second in the NFL in rushing attempts while finishing 32nd and 27th in passing attempts, respectively. I know that was largely because then-quarterback Justin Fields ran a ton, but it is still very possible that the Raiders adopt a ground-and-pound-style offensive identity this season. And there are other troubling signs around Adams. It would be difficult for him to increase his volume, as his target share in 2023 (33%) was already the highest posted by a player in any season since 2019. Then there are the downward trends we saw from him in several metrics in 2023 (such as separation, QB rating when targeted, receiving EPA and fantasy points over expectation). Put that all together, and Adams becomes a risky pick early in the second round, where he is currently being drafted.
When the Steelers hired Arthur Smith as their new OC this offseason, I'm sure many fantasy managers panicked, thanks to the frustrating usage patterns Smith displayed as head coach in Atlanta over the last three years. That said, Smith was a very successful coordinator in Tennessee. So why am I concerned that Harris might lose volume? Because Smith does seem to prefer to use a two-back system. Last year in Atlanta, he dialed up 214 carries for Bijan Robinson and 186 for Tyler Allgeier, with goal-line attempts being split even more evenly: Allgeier had three, Robinson had two and Cordarrelle Patterson had two. The year prior, Patterson had five goal-line carries and Allgeier had four. If Harris and Jaylen Warren split the goal-line chances similarly under Smith in Pittsburgh, the more explosive Warren will be the better fantasy asset of the two.
New OC Shane Waldron comes to Chicago after serving in that role for three seasons in Seattle, where the Seahawks finished 31st, 15th and 17th in the NFL in passing attempts in each year, running the fewest combined offensive plays in the league in 2021-23. And while Seattle has three very talented receivers, no one was able to put up a WR1-caliber campaign in fantasy under Waldron. DK Metcalf's highest finishes were as the WR14 in total fantasy points (in 2021) and WR23 in points per game (2021 and '23), while Tyler Lockett's best were as the WR13 in total points (in 2022) and WR17 in points per game (2022). Moore is a great talent, but it will be difficult for him to duplicate last year's success, given the increased competition for targets in Chicago. As for Odunze, we can examine how Waldron incorporated a top rookie into a pass attack featuring veteran studs last year -- and for fantasy purposes, it didn't work, with Jaxon Smith-Njigba finishing as the WR48 in total fantasy points and 59th in points per game. Odunze should outperform those results, but he might still be an inconsistent fantasy option, unless an injury occurs.
New Pats OC Alex Van Pelt was the Bills' OC in 2009 and then served in that role for the Browns the past four seasons. And while he did not call the plays in Cleveland, he helped create a game plan that leaned on the use of two running backs. Even when Nick Chubb was healthy, the Browns would heavily feature Kareem Hunt, and that pattern continued after Chubb was injured early in 2023, with Jerome Ford (173 attempts) and Hunt (135) each topping 100 carries between Week 3 and Week 18. Even in Buffalo, Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch were often used. Stevenson has dominated volume when healthy the past two years. But it is possible we see him split more with new Patriots running back Antonio Gibson this year. A loss of volume in a low-wattage offense like the one we've seen in New England recently could lead to a lot of poor weeks for Stevenson.
Kamara's decreasing efficiency of late has been negated by the high volume of targets he typically sees on a weekly basis. Could that change with new OC Klint Kubiak? Last season, when Kubiak was serving as the 49ers' pass-game coordinator, was the first for San Francisco running back Christian McCaffrey in which he played 16 games and registered fewer than 108 targets (he had 83). And in Kubiak's lone prior year as an offensive coordinator, with the Vikings in 2021, Alexander Mattison saw the most work in any of the four seasons he spent with Dalvin Cook, with neither player reaching 50 targets. If another back gets more play in New Orleans and Kamara's pass volume decreases, Kamara could be a fantasy disappointment.
