When preparing for a fantasy football draft, it is important to determine which players you can count on -- and which players you can't.
Taking chances on players with high upside is, of course, part of the game. But going for too many risky players can ruin your fantasy team before the season even starts.
With that in mind, I've compiled the following list of the six riskiest players to pick in 2024, based on average draft position (ADP) in 12-team PPR leagues, according to Fantasy Pros. (And be sure to check out my compilation of the seven safest players to scoop up after Round 4.)
ADP: Round 2 (RB11)
Showing off mind-boggling speed, Achane broke out as a fantasy star in his rookie season, averaging 17.3 fantasy points per game (fifth among RBs) in 2023. However, the 5-foot-9, 188-pound third-round pick also struggled to stay healthy, missing the start of the year with a shoulder injury, then logging just one carry in Weeks 6-12 because of a knee injury. Injuries aren't the only worry when it comes to drafting Achane in Round 2. The risk also stems from his projected workload in a crowded backfield that still includes the 2023 NFL leader in rushing touchdowns, Raheem Mostert, and added fourth-round pick Jaylen Wright. Achane's fantasy production last season was driven by some hyper-efficient performances in the early going, with his numbers falling to Earth a bit as the year wore on:
- Weeks 3-5: 12.3 yards/carry, seven total TDs, 33.3 fantasy points per game
- Weeks 13-18: 5.3 yards/carry, four TDs, 14.6 fantasy points per game
Based on the overall picture, it's hard to draft Achane in the second round right now.
ADP: Round 2 (WR12)
This offseason, Atlanta made much-needed changes at head coach and quarterback, installing Raheem Morris and Kirk Cousins in those positions. Many fantasy players, including myself, are optimistic that the Falcons' offense will be significantly improved, and that their top receiver, London, will make a real jump in his third pro season. However, it is dangerous to draft someone as the WR12 when they've finished the previous two seasons as the WR37 and WR31 in total fantasy points. Even taking into account the run-heavy approach and poor QB play in Atlanta during London's first two NFL campaigns, the results for the former eighth overall pick have been lackluster. He's recorded fewer than 60 receiving yards in 22 of 33 career games (66.7%), and he's only logged one appearance with 75-plus receiving yards and a touchdown. To justify his late-second-round cost, London wouldn't just need to play better -- he'd have to take a gigantic leap.
ADP: Round 3 (WR15)
Collins (deservingly!) secured the bag this offseason after breaking out in 2023, finishing as the WR12 in total fantasy points and WR7 in fantasy points per game. But he is still a very risky selection in the third round of fantasy drafts this year. Consider that his numbers last season were heavily skewed by five huge games, scattered throughout the schedule; meanwhile, he finished as the WR22 or worse in nine weeks, including four weeks when he scored outside of the top 50 WRs. In addition to that inconsistency, we must factor in added competition for targets from new star receiver Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell, who is back in the mix after suffering a season-ending fractured fibula in December last year. After all, it was Dell, not Collins, who led the Texans in targets and receiving touchdowns in Weeks 1-12. A decline in target share would be worrisome for Collins, because he averaged just 9.7 fantasy points over the eight games in 2023 when he saw eight or fewer targets.
ADP: Round 4 (WR21)
Last season, his first with the Bears, Moore was the only reliable wide receiver on the roster. Because of that, he was peppered with targets, and he put up career highs in receiving yards (1,364), receiving TDs (eight) and fantasy ranking (WR6 in total fantasy points). This offseason, the team added a ton of great offensive talent -- which is fortunate for Chicago fans, but not so fortunate for Moore's fantasy prospects. In 2023, Moore's greatest competition for targets among the receiver group came from the likes of Darnell Mooney and Tyler Scott. This season, Moore will be battling with trade acquisition Keenan Allen, who has been a target-hog his entire career, and rookie Rome Odunze, the ninth overall draft pick, who has reportedly looked electric in training camp. It is very plausible to expect a solid decline in target share for Moore this season, and that makes his draft price very risky. Consider how his fantasy output sank last season in games where he was targeted eight times or fewer:
- Nine-plus targets: 25.4 fantasy points per game (eight games)
- Eight targets or fewer: 9.3 fantasy points per game (nine games)
Sure, one could argue the beefed-up supporting cast and addition of QB Caleb Williams could increase Moore's efficiency, but he already averaged a very respectable 14.2 yards per reception in 2023, with a catch rate of 71%. It's hard to be much more efficient than that.
ADP: Round 5 (QB5)
After a sensational rookie season in which he finished as the QB9 in total fantasy points, Stroud is now being selected as the fifth quarterback off the board in 2024 fantasy drafts, currently early in Round 5. That is a very hefty cost for a non-mobile quarterback entering his second pro season. Stroud is a great talent, and I highly expect him to have an excellent sophomore campaign -- but that doesn't mean he will be a top-five fantasy QB. In fact, Stroud finished as a top-five QB in just two weeks last season; during one (Week 9), he threw five touchdown passes, and in the other (Week 12), he threw two touchdown passes and recorded a career-high 47 rushing yards (the only game in which he had more than 20 rushing yards), with one rushing TD. He finished as the QB10 or worse in 10 of 15 games played. As excited as I am to watch Stroud grow in what should be a fun, explosive Texans offense, the lack of rushing production in his game means he will need to throw 35 or even 40 touchdown passes to come through on his expensive price tag.
ADP: Round 5 (TE5)
There are expectations around the fantasy community that Kincaid will become the focal point of the Bills' offense, thanks to the offseason departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. Kincaid's draft price has skyrocketed, and it's important to remember that the hopes of fantasy players might not actually align with Buffalo's plans. While Kincaid had a very solid rookie campaign in 2023, putting up 673 receiving yards, he found the end zone just twice and ranked as the TE11 in total fantasy points. His TE5 cost this year is high, considering he finished as a top-five fantasy TE in just two weeks last season. And then there's veteran TE Dawson Knox, who could still end up with a solid chunk of playing time, making him a thorn in the sides of Kincaid's fantasy managers. All that said, Kincaid is one player I'm willing to roll the dice on. He's talented, and as we get into the season, I think there is a good chance he will become Josh Allen's favorite target. Sometimes you have to take big swings -- after all, scared money don't make money.
