Player projections are solid barometers for week-to-week fantasy expectations -- but they aren't always right. We're here to help you navigate those numbers and make the optimal decisions for your fantasy lineup by breaking down a handful of NFL.com fantasy point projections each week.
As always, check out our NFL Fantasy rankings for more!
HIGHER
PROJECTED POINTS: 16.0
Michelle: I am typically conducting the “Patrick Mahomes is a bad fantasy QB” train, but not this week. It is true that quarterbacks like Bo Nix, Geno Smith, Trevor Lawrence and even Aaron Rodgers are scoring more fantasy points per game than Mahomes this season. However, on Sunday, he gets to face a porous Buccaneers pass defense that’s allowing the most fantasy points to quarterbacks in 2024.
The Bucs have allowed a quarterback to score 28-plus fantasy points in four games this season, including three times in the last four weeks. There have been only two QBs who didn’t score 16 fantasy points against them: Jared Goff in Week 2 and Spencer Rattler in Week 6.
PROJECTED POINTS: 15.4
Michelle: Achane has finished with 23-plus fantasy points in three games: Weeks 1, 2 and 8. In translation, the only three games Tua Tagovailoa has started this season. In those games, Achane averaged 137.3 scrimmage yards, 7.3 targets, 65 receiving yards and one touchdown per game.
His success should continue at Buffalo on Sunday, as the Bills' defense has given up the third-most fantasy points per game to the running back position in 2024. This is an especially great matchup for Achane, who has been utilized heavily as a pass catcher in Year 2, because the Bills have allowed the most receptions and receiving yards to RBs in 2024. In these teams' previous matchup in Week 2, he scored a season-high 29 fantasy points while putting up 96 yards on the ground and another 69 yards and a touchdown through the air.
PROJECTED POINTS: 11.8
Matt: One of the easier benchmarks for a player’s projected performance against an opponent is his previous performance against that same team. Robinson had 17 carries for 133 yards against the Giants in Week 2. He totaled 14.6 fantasy points without even finding the end zone. With that in mind, it’s hard to imagine why he’d be projected for just 11.8 points in the rematch.
Moreover, Robinson’s particular strength -- rushing inside the tackles -- is one of New York’s biggest weaknesses. According to Next Gen Stats, his +67 rush yards over expected on such runs is the fifth-most in the NFL, while Big Blue’s +163 inside rush yards allowed is the most of any defense. It’s a match made in heaven, making Robinson a surefire RB2 (at worst).
PROJECTED POINTS: 12.5
Michelle: Who would have thought that in 2024 fantasy managers would be excited about Joe Flacco starting over a young, highly mobile quarterback in Anthony Richardson? This is the second straight year that we have seen playmakers flourish with Flacco under center (last season in Cleveland), and Downs has been Flacco’s go-to guy with the receiver being targeted on 27 percent of Flacco’s pass attempts in 2024.
Downs has hit at least 15 fantasy points in four of the last five weeks and scored 22.2, 15.9 and 19.5 points in the three games that Flacco played this season. The Vikings pose the best matchup for fantasy wide receivers through eight weeks, allowing a WR to put up 100-plus receiving yards against them in each of their last four games.
PROJECTED POINTS: 14.2
Matt: We’ve been banging this drum all year and we’ll keep banging it through the fantasy championships: Start everyone against the Jaguars. They rank dead last in NFL Pro’s overall defensive passing efficiency and have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Stefon Diggs, Jaylen Waddle, Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs all topped 14 fantasy points against Jacksonville in games where another teammate was the highest-scoring fantasy receiver on the day.
DeVonta absolutely belongs in the category of team WR2s who are also fantasy WR2s, and this is one of the matchups where he’s a great bet at finishing as a fantasy WR1 -- like he did last week against the Bengals. In my book, Smith is more likely to threaten 20 fantasy points than fall short of this projection.
PROJECTED POINTS: 9.2
Matt: It seems like point projections might not have caught up to the player Pitts has become over the past month. Since Week 5, the Falcons tight end has scored double-digit fantasy points in four straight games, logging at least 65 receiving yards in each. While those contests were all great matchups for tight ends, I think the increased stability of Kirk Cousins and the Atlanta offense is also responsible.
According to NFL Pro, the Falcons have a significant advantage in the passing game over the struggling Cowboys defense, and Pitts has become a key cog in that air attack. He’s ranked as our TE4 but projected as just the TE12, which is usually a strong sign of an incoming overperformance.
LOWER
PROJECTED POINTS: 15.8
Matt: The “Indoor Cat” narrative around Goff hasn’t been ironclad this season, with the quarterback producing subpar fantasy performances in domes in Weeks 1 through 3. But Lambeau Field might be the most hostile, anti-Goff stadium in the sport, and that’s where he’s headed Sunday. Goff has averaged just 13.1 fantasy points in three games at Green Bay and has scored fewer than 12 points in each of the last two.
On top of all that, the Green Bay defense has been very stiff against QBs, ranking fifth in NFL Pro’s overall defensive passing efficiency and averaging 1.3 interceptions per game, tied for third-most in the league behind only the Vikings and Lions (shoutout to the NFC North). Without Jameson Williams (suspended for two games) and in a tough environment, I think Goff is a major risk for Week 9.
PROJECTED POINTS: 13.0
Michelle: The Chiefs have had zero hesitation throwing Hunt straight into the fire and giving him a shocking amount of volume. He has 70 carries over his three starts. However, his efficiency has been less than desirable, as he is gaining just 3.4 yards a pop and adding nothing of value as a receiver with only four targets as the Chiefs’ starter.
Hunt had 21 carries and scored a rushing touchdown last week against the Raiders and still scored just 13.3 fantasy points. This weekend, the Chiefs should take the ball out of Hunt’s hands and allow Patrick Mahomes to cook against the Buccaneers’ extremely soft pass defense.
PROJECTED POINTS: 12.0
Matt: The Ravens' defense is easily the top pass-funnel unit in the league, ranking third-worst in NFL Pro’s defensive passing efficiency and second-best in defensive rushing efficiency. They’ve allowed the most passing yards per game in the league (291.4) and the fewest rushing yards per game (69.9). While a few running backs have posted strong receiving days against Baltimore, it is an iron wall in the run game.
While Williams could crawl his way over this projection with a six- or seven-catch day, I’m not willing to bet on that kind of receiving volume for a player who’s consistently seeing fewer than 60 percent of the snaps. If you have other options at RB2, take them.
PROJECTED POINTS: 13.7
Michelle: Flowers has blossomed in his second season and been an elite fantasy scorer over the last month, putting up 110-plus receiving yards and 18-plus fantasy points in three of the last four weeks. However, I am predicting an underwhelming performance from Flowers in a tough matchup on Sunday. The Broncos haven’t allowed a wide receiver to catch more than six balls or hit 80-plus receiving yards against them this season. This game has Derrick Henry’s name written all over it.
