1) Projections
Some really great feedback you've all given me this week is that you're interested in hearing about more players - so I've included seven in each position and the highlighted stats are not to do with guys listed in the top seven. I really appreciate the questions, please keep them coming!
Note: These projections are based on my stat-line projection for each player translated into standard fantasy scoring. These are the median values.
Tip: Use the order and points as a way to compare ... e.g. if a running back is projected to earn 1.5 points more than the guy behind him, but only 0.15 points less than the guy in front of him, take the magnitude into consideration. Also, asterisks (*) mean watch out for injury report changes, but always do that anyway, even if there doesn't happen to be an asterisk.
Quarterbacks:
Aaron Rodgers, Packers (20.32)
Dak Prescott, Cowboys (18.9)
Tom Brady, Patriots (17.57)
Carson Palmer, Cardinals (16.85)
Drew Brees, Saints (16.63)
Matt Ryan, Falcons (16.45)
*Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers (16.07)
Running Backs:
David Johnson, Cardinals (20.79)
Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys (17.15)
Melvin Gordon, Chargers (16.05)
Le'Veon Bell, Steelers (15.71)
DeMarco Murray, Titans (15.58)
Jay Ajayi, Dolphins (13.72)
*Lamar Miller, Texans (13.07)
Wide Receivers:
Mike Evans, Buccaneers (13.44)
Antonio Brown, Steelers (12.93)
A.J. Green, Bengals (12.78)
Julio Jones, Falcons (12.59)
Odell Beckham Jr., Giants (12.56)
Alshon Jeffery, Bears (11.22)
Jordy Nelson, Packers (10.75)
Tight Ends:
Rob Gronkowski, Patriots (9.38)
Greg Olsen, Panthers (8.65)
Jordan Reed, Redskins (8.06)
Delanie Walker, Titans (8.04)
Travis Kelce, Chiefs (7.85)
Jimmy Graham, Seahawks (7.42)
Tyler Eifert, Bengals (7.25)
Kickers
Stephen Gostkowski (8.58)
Dan Bailey, Cowboys (8.53)
Chris Boswell, Steelers (7.93)
Steven Hauschka, Seahawks (7.80)
Mason Crosby, Packers (7.57)
D/STs
Arizona Cardinals (9.88)
Kansas City Chiefs (8.86)
Houston Texans (8.72)
Dallas Cowboys (8.64)
Los Angeles Rams (8.63)
2) David Johnson leadse the league in totqal scrimmage yards (1,112) ... and he's already had his bye.
In their Week 5 five matchup against the 49ers, Johnson had 157 scrimmage yards, and he's had over 100 scrimmage yards in all eight games he's played this year. I know I said I wouldn't talk about top seven guys by position, but I want to point out that despite this prime matchup for Johnson, there is more fantasy goodness to go around.
Fantasy Impact:Larry Fitzgerald is averaging 10.1 targets per game (fourth in the NFL) and seven receptions per game (tied for third-most). Also, for fun, Fitz has 1,935 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns in 25 career games against the 49ers. I have him slated for seven receptions for 74 yards and about 50/50 odds for him to see the end zone. If you need a sleeper, consider J.J. Nelson as well.
3) The Broncos rank 28th in total offense this season (323.5 yards per game). They average 23.8 points per game(13th) on only 5.0 yards per play (29th).
The Saints' defense ranks 19th against the rush, 32nd against the pass and is tied for 30th in sacks. They are also allowing 29.8 PPG (third-most in the league).
Fantasy Impact:Emmanuel Sanders has 614 receiving yards on the year (12th-most). He's caught 49 of the 86 targets thrown his way, which averages out to 9.6 targets and 5.4 receptions per game for 76.8 yards. He also has three touchdowns. Demaryius Thomas has 591 yards off of 47 catches (74 targets). This averages out to 5.2 receptions off of 8.2 targets per game, and he has four touchdowns. If you have either Sanders or Thomas on your team they are both in play (and have very similar projections), but if I had to pick one for a format like Perfect Challenge I would give Sanders a slight edge because he has seen more red-zone targets. P.S. Trevor Siemian is a good streaming option.
4) Two snacks from Minnesota at Washington
4a)Stefon Diggs has seen 13 or more targets in each of his past two games with 21 receptions in that span. He averages 9.5 targets per game and 6.9 receptions per game for 78 yards per game. Washington's defense is tied for 15th in passing yards allowed and tied for 19th in points allowed per game (23.6). There also is that Josh Norman threat … but Diggs goes into the slot at times (where Norman is less likely to follow) and the Vikings will likely create favorable matchups for Diggs. To me, he's totally in play and if you're looking to be a little risky, consider his teammate, Cordarrelle Patterson who has sneaky upside.
4b) I know you watch a lot of everyone's favorite show, "NFL Fantasy Live," so you should already have heard about the value of former waiver-wire pickups Tyrell Williams and Michael Thomas (yes, I know Thomas is playing the Broncos). But another guy with a similar projection to these two this week is Jamison Crowder. I know it's the Vikings defense, which to me means temper your expectations for upside. However, Captain Munnerlyn is likely not at full health and Xavier Rhodes typically stays outside. DeSean Jackson is unlikely to play making Crowder, who averages 62.3 YPG off of five receptions and seven targets per game, worth considering this week.
5) Three If/Thens: Injuries
Jeremy Maclin won't play this week against the Panthers defense that ranks third against the rush and 29th against the pass. That makes Chris Conley and Tyreek Hill interesting options. Conley averages 4.8 targets, 3.3 receptions and 39.3 yards per game, but hasn't found the end zone yet this year. Hill averages 3.5 targets, 2.8 receptions, and 29.4 yards per game, but has scored four times as a receiver. Conley is the snap leader between the two, but because Hill is also used in the run game and gets targeted on plays headed for the end zone (i.e. deeper throws), he's the better fantasy play per my math. Maclin's absence also gives Travis Kelce a bump, too.
With Tevin Coleman officially out, Devonta Freeman becomes an even more attractive option against the Eagles in Philly. Freeman has better stat lines in away games and the Eagles defense ranks 18th against the rush and 25th in rushing yards allowed per play.
If Todd Gurley doesn't play, Benny Cunningham should be the starter against the Jets. This isn't a great matchup considering the Jets are the fourth-best run defense, only allowing an average of only 81 rushing yards per game. They have held seven of nine teams they have faced to under 90 rush yards. The more interesting play is Lance Kendricks who has seven receptions in both of his last two games and is averaging 72.5 yards per game in that span. If Gurley is unable to go, Kendricks' projection sees a boost, but even if Gurley does play you can still consider Kendricks a smart play at tight end.
