In the latest episode of the NFL Fantasy LIVE podcast the gang discussed the potential of the Bengals' offense and the Rams' plan for Todd Gurley. Then they debated the draft value of some second-year running backs like Jerick McKinnon and Devonta Freeman. Don't forget to subscribe and listen in HERE!
We get excited about the little things here at NFL Fantasy. Things like Marshawn Lynchtaking part in the Golden State Warriors' celebration last week. We also get excited when live drafts open on NFL.com/fantasy for the upcoming season. Fortunately drafts officially opened last week, and over 20,000 of you have already drafted your fantasy teams. With that in mind we thought it'd be worth diving into some of the early Average Draft Position (ADP) trends to try and identify some late-round bargains for you at each position. Keep in mind that all of this data will fluctuate as more and more owners draft their teams.
Quarterbacks
If you're waiting on the quarterback position and are looking for value in the later rounds, consider Cam Newton who is sitting pretty with a Round 10 ADP.
Last year Newton posted career lows in passing yards, passing touchdowns, rushing yards and rushing touchdowns, which makes sense since he missed two games with injuries and never quite seemed like he was 100 percent all season. Let that scare off your league mates, but don't be fooled. Newton should be strong out of the gate this season. He's fresh off a lucrative contract extension and whispers are swirling that his coaches will continue to encourage him to rush the ball -- an attribute that really boosts his value in fantasy.
Another interesting note from the QB position: Ryan Tannehill is coming off the board in Round 6 ahead of players like Tony Romo (Round 7), Tom Brady (Round 7) and Ben Roethlisberger (Round 8). It's pretty apparent that the hype train is full steam ahead on Tannehill to have a big year in fantasy, but Round 6 is a bit too generous for me. I'd much rather be stocking up on my receiver and running backs that early.
I like Philip Rivers and Eli Manning with ADPs of Rounds 10 and 11, respectively. Manning is in line for a sneaky good fantasy season (Odell Beckham Jr., anyone?) and Rivers continues to produce for owners that have taken a chance on him in later rounds the past few years. Andy Dalton is also quite a bargain with a Round 15 ADP. With an offensive arsenal back at full health, excitement is mounting with high expectations for the Bengals offense this season.
Running backs
Of course it all depends on your draft strategy but if you're looking for running back value beyond the first two rounds, there seems to be more than enough to go around this year. Consider Justin Forsett and Alfred Morris who both have Round 4 ADPs. Each back scored eight touchdowns and piled up at least 1,000 rushing yards last year making them top-15 fantasy running backs. Forsett's role should remain the same in a Ravens' offense now headed by offensive coordinator Marc Trestman -- a coach who force-fed Matt Forte a record 102 receptions for 808 yards in addition to his 266 rush attempts in Chicago last season.
There is hope that Washington has shored up its' offensive line a bit this offseason. So while Morris lacks the speed and hands to be a true three-down workhorse, he has been good for at least 1,000 yards in each of his three seasons in the NFL and has never scored fewer than seven touchdowns. I'll take that in Round 4 'til the cows come home.
I have a MAJOR issue with Darren McFadden's Round 6 ADP (pick 54.91 overall). For some reason he's currently the first Dallas back coming off of draft boards ahead of Joseph Randle (Round 10). It's a crime that McFadden is also just a few spots ahead of Andre Ellington (Round 6/57.19), Melvin Gordon (Round 6/56.97) and Rashad Jennings (Round 8). Last season with Oakland, he averaged a ghastly 3.4 yards per carry (155 carries/543 yards) and scored just two touchdowns. I'm hoping savvy fantasy owners will come out of hibernation and buck this McFadden trend as the season draws closer.
A back who owners might be forgetting about is the Chargers' Danny Woodhead with a Round 16 ADP. This is likely due to the fact that he only played in three games in 2014 on account of a season-ending leg/ankle injury. Early reports from minicamp stated that the PPR-specialist is back to full health and was a standout during San Diego's workouts. He projects to play a major role on passing downs behind the Chargers' first round draft pick, Gordon. In 2013 Woodhead piled up over 700 all-purpose yards and eight total touchdowns so he has potential in all leagues.
Fantasy owners don't seem to be buying into the hype surrounding C.J. Spiller (Round 10) just yet. He would be a steal that late come August but I have a feeling his ADP will rise in the coming weeks. Spiller should see a large share of opportunities in New Orleans behind lead man Mark Ingram whose Round 3 ADP feels a tad inflated.
Some other backs I'd love to snatch up with their current ADPs include Giovani Bernard (Round 10), rookie T.J. Yeldon(Round 10) and Tre Mason (Round 12).
Wide receivers
Once the elite fantasy receivers are off the board in the first few rounds there's a Round 4 run of second-year studs including Mike Evans, Kelvin Benjamin and Brandin Cooks. This makes sense since Evans piled up 12 touchdowns and over 1,000 yards as a rookie while Benjamin scored nine touchdowns and had over 1,000 yards of his own. Cooks' rookie campaign ended early but he projects to be the No. 1 target in New Orleans with the departure of tight end Jimmy Graham this offseason.
This year's rookie class is led by Kevin White (Round 7/66.17) who slots just a tick above Amari Cooper (Round 7/pick 66.30). The Round 7 ADP is likely inflated by post-NFL Draft hype and I'd personally wait another couple of rounds on these guys. If I had to pick one I'd lean more in the direction of Cooper since he'll be the clear-cut No. 1 target of Derek Carr in Oakland and White will be coming up under Alshon Jeffery (Round 3) in Chicago.
Some other undervalued receivers include Golden Tate (Round 10) and Brandon Marshall (Round 10).
Tate is trending up after he registered career highs in receptions (99), receiving yards (1,331) and 100-yard games (5) last season with the Lions -- a team entering its second season under OC Joe Lombardi's offense. Sharing the field with Calvin Johnson is always a plus as well.
When the 31-year-old Marshall moved to the Jets, his fantasy stock obviously took a blow. But he remains one of the most talented veteran wideouts in the league and was on pace for double-digit touchdowns for the third year in a row before he suffered a season-ending rib injury in Week 13. Based on his résumé I'd be happy to draft him as a depth receiver in Round 10.
If you want some really late picks to target take a gander at Michael Floyd (Round 13). He was a letdown last year due to quarterback inconsistency in Arizona. Now, with a healthy Carson Palmer back under center, Floyd makes for a great bargain to stash on your bench in hopes of a breakout.
Also consider Martavis Bryant with a Round 15 ADP. This likely won't last as owners catch on to the fact that the second-year receiver projects as the No. 2 target in a high-octane Steelers' offense. He reportedly added some weight in the offseason and has made strides in OTAs.
Tight ends
As far as tight ends are concerned after the first two studs are gone (Rob Gronkowski, Round 2 and Graham, Round 4) it's basically a blindfolded dart throw. Greg Olsen (Round 6) is next up followed by a Round 7 run of Travis Kelce, Julius Thomas, Antonio Gates and Dwayne Allen.
Two tight ends that made offseason headlines include Charles Clay(Round 11) who migrated north from Miami to Buffalo and Jordan Cameron (Round 14) who headed south from Cleveland to Miami. Both players are talented enough to make an impact on fantasy rosters. Cameron has better value on a Dolphins' offense headed by a capable quarterback and several other promising offensive weapons while Clay may suffer from quarterback woes in Buffalo.
Personally, I tend to wait on tight ends during drafts so I'll be looking for value late. Kyle Rudolph's Round 16 ADP is enticing but he does bring some injury risk to the table. If the guy can stay healthy he's got major potential.
Matt Franciscovich is an associate fantasy editor at NFL.com. Follow him on Twitter _**@mfranciscovich**_.
