Unfamiliar with the SAP Player Comparison Tool? Well it's about time you get acquainted! The tool can be a great asset for those tough roster decisions, whether you're dealing with start/sit conundrums, trade comparisons, or decisions on which players to pick up on the waiver wire, you can benefit by learning the ins and outs of the customizable tool. This week in what we like to call Fantasy Football Audibles, we take a look at three player comparisons to help you take some of the guesswork out of those mind-boggling roster determinations.
Here's a quick primer in the factors that the SAP Player Comparison Tool takes into consideration when analyzing players:
»Performance:player performance (NFL statistics and Fantasy points) from the current season
»Matchup:opponent-specific fantasy points against (FPA) data and matchup analysis
»Consistency:stability of historical player fantasy point production
»Upside:potential for significant fantasy point performance
»Intangibles:additional factors including injury status, weather, game location, team support and player rest
Who should I start at WR: Martavis Bryant or Allen Hurns?
The case for Bryant: In five games this season, Bryant has registered five touchdown catches and 440 yards on just 22 receptions. He's an essential part of the Steelers high-flying aerial attack and is a great deep-threat compliment to Antonio Brown. In his last game, Bryant put up 178 yards and a score against the Browns in a game that the Steelers dominated. This week though, the going may be a bit tougher against the 'Legion of Boom' at home. Seattle's pass defense has allowed just three touchdowns to wideouts all season and are giving up an average of just 207.2 passing yards per game. Still, Bryant's insane athletic ability and speed make him hard to leave on your bench in fantasy.
The case for Hurns: Last week the Titans broke Hurns' streak of seven straight games with a touchdown. Hurns has averaged 71.6 yards and 7.2 targets per game this year and when you toss in his seven touchdowns, it's that consistency that has paved the way for him to ranks as a top 10 fantasy wideout for the season. In an outlier game in Week 11, Jacksonville's top wideouts were targeted a total of just 11 times combined, a that number is basically a lock to increase in what should be a bounce-back game for the Jags offense in all aspects.
Conclusion: Bryant is averaging more yards per catch (20.7) than Hurns (16.3) and has just two fewer touchdowns than the Jaguars receiver does in half as many games. That alone should be enough to stick with Bryant this week, even in Seattle. His 25-point plus ceiling in standard leagues blows Hurns' season high 18 fantasy points away. And although Hurns may be the more consistent option, fantasy owners should be shooting for the big reward rather than the steady trickle in what is likely a must-win week as the playoffs approach.
Who should I start at RB: DeAngelo Williams or Thomas Rawls?
The case for Williams:DeAngelo Williams is the clear cut feature back for Pittsburgh for the remainder of the season, as long as he can stay healthy. With virtually no other threat to steal touches from the veteran out of the Steelers' backfield, he's a must start week in and week out. The way his team's offense has been putting up points lately (30-plus in back-to-back games) and with Big Ben back under center the sky is truly the limit for Williams' fantasy production. You might be wary of the poor fantasy game he had in Week 10 against the Browns when he posted just 72 total yards on 18 touches. But Cleveland's defense has been playing better against running backs over the last month and hasn't allowed a single touchdown to the position in their last four games. So that was more a matter of the Steelers loading up their wideouts in an attempt to take advantage of the Browns poor pass defense than anything else. If you were able to roster Williams after Le'Veon Bell went down with a season-ending injury in Week 8, it's likely you're leaving him in your starting lineup from here on out.
The case for Rawls: With Marshawn Lynch out last week, Rawls performed beyond expectations and registered more fantasy points than any other player in Week 11. And now that Lynch is sidelined for at least a month following surgery to repair a sports hernia, Rawls' fantasy stock just went through the roof. He'll be the starting running back for the Seahawks for the rest of the season, and should be locked into fantasy lineups as an RB1 too. It's difficult to say anything negative about Rawls since he's been such a monster in the stat sheets when given a featured opportunity. But don't forget about Fred Jackson either, who could get a few additional looks on passing downs. Jackson played on 29 percent of Seattle's offensive snaps last week. I'm not saying that Rawls' workload is in danger but it's something DeAngelo Williams' owners don't have to deal with.
Conclusion: There is a lot to consider here. Rawls and Williams are among the top runners in the league in terms of efficiency, both ranking in the top five in yards per carry among running backs with at least 100 attempts. Also, in games where these backs have seen at least 15 touches, they've been incredibly productive for fantasy owners, each averaging over 18 fppg in those contests. The Seahawks are the top defense this year in terms of fantasy points against running backs, allowing just 12.32 fppg to the position. But the Steelers, believe it or not, boast the second best defense in terms of stopping opposing runners allowing an average of just 12.53 fppg to the position. Although both runners face tough matchups, they're both worthy of a start in fantasy this week. But if you have to choose only one of them, I'd roll with Williams. The Steelers with Roethlisberger are just more of an offensive threat than the Seahawks are (PIT averages 25.7 points per game with Big Ben playing compared to SEA's 22.8 this season). And if we're going the route of trying to predict game script
Who should I start at RB: Lamar Miller or Eddie Lacy?
The case for Miller: Since the Dolphins' bye in Week 5 when they made coaching changes, Lamar Miller is averaging 17 touches per game, has collected 677 total yards and has scored seven touchdowns. All of that has happened in just six games. Last week's game against the Cowboys was Miller's first without a touchdown since Week 4 and only the second game that he didn't finish an RB10 or better for the week in that same span. Although Jay Ajayi has had some playing time recently, he's only seen a 13 percent share of Miami's offensive snaps compared to Miller's 78 percent share in the last three weeks, so fantasy owners shouldn't let the rookie's presence scare them one bit. Miller faces the Jets in Week 12, and while New York's run defense has a good season-long average in terms of fantasy points allowed to backs, they've been much softer lately, allowing 685 total yards and three receiving touchdowns to the position in their last four games.
The case for Lacy: I know, you're wary about Eddie Lacy because he hasn't lived up to expectations this season. But he had a nice game last week against the Vikings with over 100 total yards, his first such game this year. Let's cut him some slack, he's dealt with injuries for most of the year. Because of that, he hasn't gotten the volume we expected he would at the start of the season. But, when given a real chance, he's proven he can still get the job done. In the three games where he's has 18 or more carries, Lacy has posted 4.7 yards per rush and has averaged nearly 12 fppg (11.9). While that's not crazy production, it's sustainable considering he only scored once in those three contests. Still, it's hard to advocate starting Lacy in fantasy until he, and the Packers coaching staff shows us that that kind of volume is here to stay.
Conclusion: This one was almost too easy. Although Lacy did look better last week, Miller has been for weeks and will continue to be a surefire RB1 for the rest of the season, while the Packers running back still has to prove himself. It could be a nice Thanksgiving performance for Lacy in a game filled with Packers potential, but James Starks will continue to get looks if Lacy shows any signs of struggling. Miller should see his touches go up from last week against the Jets as he's an essential part of the Dolphins offense, and the coaching staff knows they need to get him more involved if they want to win. Fantasy owners should have that same mindset and start Miller over Lacy.
In the latest episode of the NFLFantasy LIVE podcast the gang discusses Week 12 waiver targets and previews all three of the Thanksgiving Day games. Don't forget to subscribe and listen in HERE!
Matt Franciscovich is an associate fantasy editor at NFL.com. This Carter Beauford drum solo will blow your mind. Hit Matt up on Twitter **@MattFranchise** for music recommendations and fantasy advice.
