If we're talking potential Super Bowl LII MVPs, all you sheeple can have Tom Brady. Because if you know me, you know I don't mind going full Danger Zone every now and again, diving deep and going completely off menu.
I'm here to tell you that not only will the Philadelphia Eagles win the Super Bowl, but LeGarrette Blount will hoist that MVP trophy.
Why, you ask?
REVENNNNGGGGGEEEEE!!!
I could just end the column there. Really, what other reasons do you need?!?? It's a fool-proof narrative! (Note: The Eagles actually have a double-dose of vengeance, with DE Chris Long also an ex-Pat, so Philly will win this game twice as obviously.)
But in true Danger Zone style, let me shock you with the pick -- and then hit you with some numbers ...
KEEPING BRADY OFF THE FIELD: A GAME PLAN IN TWO STEPS
Step 1: Give the ball to Blount.
Step 2: Repeat.
For three quarters at least, we saw this work to perfection. In the AFC Championship Game, Leonard Fournette churned out a few yards per carry and Blake Bortles was largely asked to make short conversions on third down. Churn and burn -- that was the Jaguars, as they converted six of their first 10 third-down attempts, with four of those conversions requiring 4 or fewer yards.
But in the fourth quarter, it all came apart: Jacksonville failed to convert on a single third down. A big reason why? All five of the Jags' final third-down attempts demanded 8-plus yards. Tough sledding for any team, let alone a hyper-conservative team like Jacksonville.
The Jags were 6-for-10 on third downs to start, 0-for-5 to close. The Jags led 20-10 ... before losing 24-20.
So, where does Blount fit in all this? And can Philadelphia really replicate Jacksonville's early game plan?
Well, you guys, it sounds like it's time to LOOK AT THE NUMBERS.
AN UNDERAPPRECIATED STUD
Yes, Jacksonville led the league in rushing this year. But, semi-quietly, the Eagles finished third, compiling more than 132 yards per game. Not only that, but Philly led the league on runs between the tackles, averaging a league-best 5.2 yards per carry, according to our friends at Next Gen Stats.
Take some time to appreciate that last figure: Averaging 5.2 yards per carry on interior runs? That's outrageously impressive.
And while Jay Ajayi and Corey Clement were making splash plays, it was ol' Leggy Blount who did the dirty work inside. Including the postseason, Blount smashed out nearly 500 yards on 104 carries between the tackles -- both numbers were far and away team highs.
Blount's overall numbers were blasé -- just 766 rush yards and three total scores -- but all the advanced metrics show how good the 250-pounder was in terms of individual effectiveness. After defenders closed within 1 yard (essentially an arm's length), Blount gained an average of 4.5 yards -- tied for the third-highest mark in the league. His 5.1 ypc average in 11 personnel (one RB, one TE, three WRs) was tied for fourth-best in the NFL. And Blount ripping off big chunks in receiver-heavy sets made him be a valuable asset; so long as he was on the field, defenses had to be alert for both the run and the pass, regardless of formation. This aided Doug Pederson in disguising his play-calling and keeping defenses off balance.
I think Blount was Philadelphia's most underappreciated player, floating the run game for long stretches, keeping the offense balanced and on track in terms of down-and-distance.
STRENGTH ON WEAKNESS
So, you might be saying to yourself, "Yeah, yeah, so what? The Jags tried this and failed."
My counter? Actually, as detailed above, the Jags tried this and were quite successful for the first three quarters -- before they got worn down. The Eagles are deeper and possess a significantly better offense than Jacksonville, meaning they're a team that can sustain long scoring drives and essentially play keepaway from the Patriots' offense deep into the fourth quarter.
SO YOU'RE TELLING ME THERE'S A CHANCE ...
I get that the Eagles come in as underdogs and that it just seems inevitable that Brady and Belichick will start their championship ring collection for their other hand.
But if "Dumb and Dumber" taught us anything, it's that the Eagles definitely have a chance.
Defense wins championships and all that, but if Philly is going to do this, the offense needs to do its part by sustaining long drives and keeping the defense fresh.
Nick Foles had the game of his life against the Vikings, but with two weeks of prep, Bill Belichick will almost assuredly come up with a defensive plan that will confuse and pressure the backup quarterback. Meanwhile, on the other sideline, Pederson has shown himself to be a sharp head coach -- and I would be flat-out shocked if he wanted to sling it with Foles against the Pats and Brady. The smart play is to use your strength (run game) against New England's weakness (rush defense) and see where the chips fall.
What does it all mean? Well, I can easily tell myself a story where Blount, Ajayi and Clement make chunk plays on the ground and in the flat, with Blount ultimately scoring a couple times and making enough tough, gritty plays to garner MVP honors.
And if all that wasn't enough?
REVVVVEEEENNNNNGGGGGGEEEEEE!!!!!
James D. Koh is an anchor and host for NFL Network. He is also the host of the NFL Fantasy Live Podcast and a guest columnist for the NFL.com editorial staff. Follow him on Twitter @JamesDKoh to tell him how wrong he is.
