Will Ryan Mathews emerge as a top fantasy running back as a rookie?
It began with Emmitt Smith in Dallas. Then there was Terry Allen and Stephen Davis in Washington. Then LaDainian Tomlinson in San Diego, Ricky Williams in Miami and LaMont Jordan in Oakland. Then Frank Gore in San Francisco, and Tomlinson once again in San Diego.
At every stop in two decades as an NFL offensive coordinator or head coach, Norv Turner has produced a featured back that has rushed for 1,000 yards (usually well over 1,000 yards) and scored 10-plus touchdowns (except in San Francisco, where Gore had nine touchdowns in Turner's lone season there in 2006).
Next on the list: Mathews in San Diego.
Mathews, the 12th overall pick of the 2010 NFL Draft, is a slam-dunk first-rounder in dynasty and countless keeper leagues. It's not too far-fetched to consider him in the first round of seasonal leagues, either.
If he's not a first rounder, the Fresno State produce should certainly come off the board in the second round.
Tomlinson, Mathews' idol while he was growing up, amassed 1,603 yards from scrimmage and scored 10 touchdowns on a whopping 398 touches in his rookie season while Turner was San Diego's offensive coordinator. But that Chargers' team had Doug Flutie at quarterback, Curtis Conway at wide receiver, and Freddie Jones at tight end.
Mathews will have it much better in his first season, with Philip Rivers at quarterback, Vincent Jackson at wide receiver, and Antonio Gates at tight end. As a result, this team won't have to rely on its prized rookie as much. At the same time, the fact that there are so many other weapons means that defenses can't solely focus on stopping Mathews.
At 215 pounds, Mathews is a punishing runner and should see both early-down and goal-line carries while Darren Sproles remains a change-of-pace back.
Bottom line: As the top back in one of the top offenses in the NFL, Mathews figures to have big-time fantasy value in 2010 ... and beyond.
