Former NFL player and scout Bucky Brooks knows the ins and outs of this league, providing keen insight in his notebook. Today's installment covers:
But first, a look at one high-profile rookie about to make his first professional start ...
The clock has been ticking on the Kirk Cousins era in Atlanta since the Falcons selected Michael Penix Jr. with the eighth overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Despite Atlanta inking the veteran to a four-year, $180 million deal with $100 million in guarantees last March, the hefty investment of draft capital in a quarterback prospect in April promptly put Cousins on borrowed time.
Frankly, I think Atlanta has kind of been Penix's team since the 6-foot-2, 220-pounder stepped onto the practice field during organized team activities and minicamps. With Cousins sidelined while rehabbing from the torn Achilles that essentially ended his tenure with the Minnesota Vikings, Penix spent the majority of the offseason working with the 1s. The chemistry and confidence developed during those workouts enabled Falcons coaches and players to envision how the offense could operate with the would-be franchise quarterback in the lineup. We all heard the buzz about the exceptional arm talent Penix put on display in these sessions, whizzing fastballs past defenders to streaking pass catchers racing across the field.
While head coach Raheem Morris and other Falcons officials spent months throwing their support behind Cousins as he worked his way back from injury, the glowing reports on Penix's performance and progress throughout the offseason and training camp put pressure on the vet to catch fire in order to keep his job. After taking the opening month of the season to shake off the rust, Cousins seemingly found his rhythm during a 509-yard, four-touchdown effort against the Buccaneers in Week 5. The spectacular performance kicked off an impressive five-game run where he connected on 72.2 percent of his throws with a 13:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
However, Cousins could not sustain the momentum, as evidenced by the disappointing five-game stretch (one touchdown vs. nine interceptions) that ultimately cost him his job. With Cousins currently posting league highs in interceptions (16) and fumbles (13), Morris had to replace the veteran or run the risk of losing the locker room.
In Penix, the Falcons (7-7) are putting the ball in the hands of a fearless gunslinger with the best deep ball in an impressive 2024 quarterback class. As a natural thrower with phenomenal arm strength and a deft touch, the lefty forces opponents to defend every blade of grass from sideline to sideline and end line to end line.
At the University of Washington, Penix operated with surgical precision within a pro-style offense that featured creative schemes and exotic routes. He consistently delivered the ball on time and on target to a collection of NFL-ready pass catchers zipping across the field in all directions. He played the game like a seasoned vet within the pocket, relying on his outstanding diagnostic skills and anticipation to enhance his MLB-like ability to vary his pitches from fastballs to change-ups, based on coverage. In addition, Penix operated effectively within an offense that mixed shotgun and under-center formations. He displayed sound mechanics while executing traditional dropback plays and play-action passes that required him to turn his back to the defense before relocating and targeting receivers at deep and intermediate levels. Although his total experience running old-school play-action concepts is still limited, Penix's tools and traits could help him excel as a misdirection passer at the next level.
The Falcons have an enticing collection of pass catchers on the perimeter with size, speed and playmaking ability. The trio of Drake London, Darnell Mooney and Kyle Pitts certainly doesn't lack for talent, but the ball just wasn't finding them enough with Cousins at the helm. With Penix adding a dimension to the offense as a deep-ball specialist, the Falcons' aerial attack should pose more problems for opponents unable to match their size and skill on the perimeter.
The Bijan Robinson-Tyler Allgeier backfield duo will also benefit from Penix's insertion into the lineup. The presence of a dynamic play-action passer with big-play potential will prevent opponents from loading the box in order to stop the run -- or seriously punish them if they do. Given offensive coordinator Zac Robinson's background in Sean McVay's scheme, the Falcons could feature more stretch/bootleg tactics with various vertical route combinations to attack over the top of the defense.
As opposing defensive coordinators are forced to make tough decisions on whether to deploy defenders against the run game or aerial attack, Penix could enable Robinson to utilize more of his playbook down the stretch. While an expanded call sheet might challenge a typical rookie starter, Penix's extensive collegiate experience and maturity at age 24 should ease his transition to the pro game. We've seen this with Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix, Penix's similarly seasoned draftmates.
This is also a nice week to insert Penix into the lineup, with the injury-riddled 2-12 New York Giants coming to town. The difficulty level will increase in Week 17, when the Falcons will hit the road to face Daniels and the Washington Commanders.
The Falcons are taking a gamble by pinning their playoff hopes on the performance of a rookie quarterback, but the offense was floundering behind an immobile 36-year-old who could not find the strike zone. With Penix adding a dynamic dimension to the offense, Atlanta could finally realize its explosive potential.
Do NOT sleep on the Buccaneers!
The playoff field is coming together, with top contenders and underdogs vying for coveted spots in the tournament. While home-field advantage is crucial to some teams' postseason outlook, the incentive to avoid tough matchups should motivate others to finish the season on a roll.
Certain teams just scream DANGEROUS in a single-elimination event. And as I peruse the playoff picture, one low-profile squad stands out as the proverbial "team nobody wants to face": the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This certainly hasn't been a banner season for the NFC South, but everyone needs to stop sleeping on the current division leader.
Todd Bowles' blitz-happy defense is never fun to play. Quarterbacks and play-callers are routinely overwhelmed, resulting in mistakes, misfires and costly turnovers. And this D is getting healthier as the Bucs continue to march toward the postseason, having rolled off four straight wins since the Week 11 bye.
With the attack-minded defensive play-caller forcing opponents out of their comfort zones, the Buccaneers are able to play the game on their terms. And as their offense has evolved from a pass-happy unit into a ground-and-pound outfit with a dynamic aerial component, the Bucs have a complementary style that could be a bear in January.
In his first year with Tampa Bay, offensive coordinator Liam Coen has the offense rolling, lately relying on a three-headed monster at running back to bludgeon opponents on the ground. With rookie sensation Bucky Irving, Rachaad White and Sean Tucker all capably toting the rock, the Buccaneers are averaging a whopping 192 rushing yards over the past four games, sparking the current win streak. Part of the team's success on the ground has been a stubborn commitment to the run. The Buccaneers have refused to abandon the ground attack despite some early-game struggles, and their persistence has been rewarded with late-game explosions.
In addition, the ground-and-pound approach has opened up the field for the unstoppable Baker Mayfield-Mike Evans connection. As Mayfield settles into his role as the director of a balanced offense, the former No. 1 overall pick's numbers have exploded in Year 7. Mayfield has averaged fewer than 30 pass attempts per game over the past four weeks, but his yards-per-attempt figure has been a robust 9.3 during this span. This reflects the increase in explosive passing plays that have spawned from the defense's concentration on stopping the run.
Given the challenges of facing an explosive-but-balanced offense and an aggressive defense that creates chaos at the point of attack, the Buccaneers are a team everyone should be hoping to avoid come tourney time.
Hafley making magic in Green Bay
When Jeff Hafley left Boston College to become the Packers' defensive coordinator last offseason, giving up his role as head coach to take on an assistant position at the NFL level, some initially wondered what the move said about the state of college football. Now, having seen Hafley thrive in Green Bay this season, along with former college assistants Mike Macdonald (Seahawks HC) and Jesse Minter (Chargers OC), I think it's time for a new topic of conversation: how the college game is preparing defensive coordinators to dominate the pros.
The Packers have emerged as contenders in 2024, and their defensive game tape is must-see viewing for anyone who wants to know why. Under Hafley, the Packers rank among the top 10 in the NFL in the two most important defensive categories: points allowed (20.5 per game, eighth-least) and takeaways (26, fourth-most). Championship teams keep opponents out of the end zone and find various ways to create turnovers, and Green Bay excels at both tasks -- thanks to a creative approach featuring elements routinely found at the college level.
From their extensive utilization of simulated pressures (four-man rushes with linebackers or safeties/cornerbacks featured as the fourth rusher) to hot blitzes (six-man pressures with a three-deep/two-under coverage), the Packers are crushing opponents with a thinking-man's scheme that challenges quarterbacks and play-callers to make sound decisions under mental and physical duress. Moreover, Green Bay is incorporating its entire defensive roster into the pass rush to keep opponents guessing each week -- a whopping 16 Packers have at least half a sack this season.
The variety and versatility of Hafley's defensive deployment creates headaches for opponents trying to identify potential rushers at the line of scrimmage and second/third levels. In addition, his unique approach enables the Packers to maximize a defensive lineup loaded with young, athletic defenders offering diverse skills.
Consider how pass rusher Rashan Gary serves as the so-called "queen on the chess board" in third-down situations, able to align anywhere along the defensive front to attack a weak link on the offensive line. Then there are linebackers Quay Walker (a 2022 first-round pick) and Edgerrin Cooper (a second-rounder this year), who have the speed, athleticism and physicality to overwhelm and overpower running backs in pass protection. Their interchangeable skills enable Hafley to mix in various blitzes and simulated pressures to keep quarterbacks guessing on every snap. And should Walker have to miss any time with an ankle injury that took him out of last week's win over Seattle just before halftime, Cooper should be able to pick up the slack, based on the stat line he put together in that game (five tackles, one sack, one interception).
In coverage, the Packers' transition to more zone-based concepts has helped them get their hands on more balls. Defenders keep constant vision on the quarterback; instead of eyeballing their assigned receivers, they see the ball thrown from the pocket, enabling them to make quicker breaks on passes in their areas. Most importantly, while hustling in the direction of the throw, they are able to pick off passes that are tipped or overthrown, as evidenced by offseason free-agent addition Xavier McKinney's league-leading seven interceptions. With Hafley at the helm, the pass defense has held up despite the absence of two-time Pro Bowler Jaire Alexander for seven games this season.
Yes, the pro game is revered for its complexity. But Hafley has helped the Packers emerge as title contenders by utilizing concepts from the lower level that are hard to decipher. And this lineup of versatile defenders possesses the skills and intelligence to make the tactics work. In other words, Green Bay's D is propelling the team toward the playoffs thanks to the Xs and Os and the Jimmys and Joes.
