We're down to the final four of the NFL postseason. There will be two rematches to decide who plays in Super Bowl LIX, as the Bills will take on the Chiefs and the Commanders will face the Eagles. It's the ninth opportunity to see Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes give us a game filled with suspense and jaw-dropping plays. It's also the third time to witness the league's newest superstar, Washington quarterback Jayden Daniels, compete against the best collection of talent this season, that being the roster Philadelphia assembled for this season.
The great thing about this time of year is that there's really no need for hype anymore. The games sell themselves, as we already know the enormity of the stakes involved. That's why Part II of The First Read Divisional Round Edition is going to veer away from conventional talk about championship game previews. Instead, we're going to talk about the weaknesses that could ruin the dreams of those teams advancing as well as the top offseason priority for each team that was eliminated over the weekend.
Here's what comes to mind:
REMAINING SUPER BOWL CONTENDERS
Biggest weakness: The defense isn’t as dominant as it looks.
The Chiefs won their second straight Super Bowl last season largely because they had a defense that could carry this team when the offense faltered. That simply hasn’t been the case this season. As good as the overall numbers looked in the regular season -- Kansas City ranked fourth in points allowed and ninth in yards -- there were simply too many times when opponents produced big plays and moved the football against this defense. We’re not just talking about accomplished quarterbacks, such as Tampa Bay’s Baker Mayfield or Buffalo’s Josh Allen, having big days against this unit. Lesser talents like Carolina’s Bryce Young and Las Vegas’ Aidan O’Connell did similar things as well. The Chiefs’ 23-14 Divisional Round win over Houston was even more proof of this weakness. Yes, Kansas City recorded eight sacks, a majority of which came when the Texans were forced into obvious passing downs in the fourth quarter. The Chiefs also surrendered 149 rushing yards, allowed Houston to convert 10 of 17 third-down opportunities and gave up a scoring drive in the third quarter that lasted just over 10 minutes. The Texans came into that contest with only one of their top three wide receivers (Nico Collins), a running back nursing an ankle injury (Joe Mixon) and an offensive line that allowed the third-most sacks in the league. This should’ve been a mismatch in favor of Kansas City. Instead, the Texans trailed by eight points in the fourth quarter and could’ve made the game more interesting with better special teams play, fewer penalties and some controversial officiating calls. There’s no question the Chiefs will be tough to beat in the next round, as they’ve been to four Super Bowls in the last five years. It’s also fair to wonder if that defense can hold up against a healthier offense that can generate a lot of points.
Biggest weakness: The health of Jalen Hurts.
The Eagles quarterback sustained a leg injury when his body twisted awkwardly while being sacked by Rams safety Jaylen McCollough in the third quarter of Philadelphia’s 28-22 divisional win over Los Angeles. Hurts reached for his left knee, then left the game to be checked by medical staff before returning for Philadelphia’s next possession. The Rams sacked him again on the second play of that series, recording a safety and ensuring plenty of questions about Hurts in the coming days. It was apparent that his mobility was compromised after the injury. What we don’t know is what that means for the Eagles now that they’ll be hosting the Washington Commanders in next Sunday’s NFC Championship Game. There already were questions about the Eagles’ quarterback heading into the postseason, as he sustained a concussion in a Week 16 loss to Washington and didn’t play again until the Wild Card Round. There are likely to be more now that Hurts has posted back to back sub-150 yard passing games in the playoffs. The Rams’ defensive front gave him plenty of problems -- sacking him seven times -- and Washington might be able to do the same if he’s compromised. The Eagles can wear teams out with their ground game, as Saquon Barkley ran for 205 yards against the Rams and Hurts opened the game with a 44-yard touchdown run. However, the Eagles’ only loss in their last 15 games came when Hurts went down. If he’s not right, the Eagles’ championship dreams will be in trouble.
Biggest weakness: Sean McDermott's history in big games.
The Bills head coach has dealt with some devastating losses in recent years. His team was leading Kansas City with 13 seconds left in a Divisional Round game three years ago when Patrick Mahomes engineered a game-tying drive and then won that game in overtime. The Cincinnati Bengals then blew out the Bills in the Divisional Round the next season before Kansas City beat Buffalo in the Divisional Round last season, when kicker Tyler Bass missed a potential game-tying field goal late in the fourth quarter. McDermott gained a reputation through those losses as being a coach who too often goes conservative when the game hangs in the balance. It looked like we might see the same old story play out once again in his team’s 27-25 win over Baltimore on Sunday, when the Bills held a 21-10 lead at the start of the second half but became far more cautious in their offensive play-calling. The Ravens rallied to make the game tight, but a drop by tight end Mark Andrews on a two-point conversion attempt clinched the win for Buffalo. In the end, McDermott’s decision to kick a field goal to extend the lead to eight points instead of going for it on fourth down from Baltimore’s 2-yard line did not come back to bite him, but he can’t afford to operate too conservatively against Mahomes and Co. next week. There’s been plenty of stories about how much looser he’s become this season, as he’s revealed more of his personality and even developed a habit of telling dad jokes around the facility. That’s the guy who needs to show up on the sidelines when Buffalo meets Kansas City in the AFC Championship Game next weekend. The Bills beat the Chiefs in their regular season meeting because McDermott gambled on a fourth-and-2 and let quarterback Josh Allen run for a game-sealing touchdown (instead of kicking a field goal and hoping his defense could hold off the Chiefs offense). McDermott needs to play to win this time around as well. He’s seen what happens when you play it safe in games of this magnitude. He also has a team that’s good enough to win it all if he can keep the same aggressiveness he displayed in that first game with Kansas City.
Biggest weakness: Lack of experience.
We’re past the point where we can keep underestimating the Commanders. This team went 12-5, won a wild-card game in Tampa Bay and just knocked off the top-seeded Lions in Detroit. They obviously have the talent, as rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels has delivered time and again for this team. The question moving into the next round is how they deal with the pressure that comes with being one game away from playing in the Super Bowl. Remember, this franchise hasn’t been in this position since the 1991 season. The Commanders also will be facing the Eagles, a team that narrowly lost to Kansas City in the Super Bowl just two years ago and still has several players who appeared in that game on this squad. Even though they’re facing a division rival, this is an entirely different level that Washington is moving on to next week. They do have six starters who have played in a championship game (including tight end Zach Ertz, cornerback Marshon Lattimore and linebacker Bobby Wagner). That also leaves 16 other players on offense and defense who haven’t, along with kicker Zane Gonzalez. Head coach Dan Quinn obviously understands the environment that will come with next week, as he led the Atlanta Falcons to Super Bowl LI. He’s done a masterful job melding young talents with veteran additions to create a winning culture in Washington in one season. However, there’s a reason why players and coaches often say it’s tougher to win in the championship round than the actual Super Bowl. There’s just something different about being that close to realizing a dream.
ELIMINATED TEAMS
Top offseason need: Finding strong options if they lose both coordinators.
The Lions won’t just head into this offseason wondering what could have been if they had avoided all the injuries that eventually caught up with them in the loss to Washington. Head coach Dan Campbell also needs to be ready to execute an immediate search for an offensive and defensive coordinator if Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn land heading coaching jobs in the coming weeks. It wouldn’t be surprising if one or both leave Detroit. Johnson was a hot candidate last year until he returned to help the Lions pursue another run at the Super Bowl. He’s even more in demand this year after orchestrating an offense that led the league in scoring. Johnson already has interviewed for the vacant jobs in Chicago and Jacksonville. Glenn has met with those teams as well, along with the Saints and Jets. They both have interviews scheduled with the Raiders. This is great news for those coaches and not so good for Campbell. As much as he’s been the face of the team, his success has been a byproduct of his ability to hire and empower smart, talented assistants. He retained Johnson when he arrived in Detroit in 2021 and promoted him to offensive coordinator the following season. Campbell also believed in Glenn when that defense was one of the worst in the league during the first two seasons of this regime. It’s obvious Campbell isn’t just an inspirational leader. He also has a keen eye for coaching talent, and he’ll have to be on point whenever he has to start looking for replacements on his staff.
Top offseason need: Adding more weapons at wide receiver.
The Ravens went next level with their offense this season, as Lamar Jackson became a deadlier dual-threat quarterback and running back Derrick Henry proved there’s still plenty of juice left in his legs. There is already a ton to like about where this system is heading under offensive coordinator Todd Monken -- who has interviewed for head-coaching jobs with the Bears and Jaguars -- but more help is needed on the outside. The knee injury that sidelined Pro Bowl wide receiver Zay Flowers was a huge issue in the Ravens’ loss to Buffalo. Rashod Bateman made some nice plays -- including catching a 16-yard touchdown catch -- but there’s a reason why the Ravens traded for embattled wideout Diontae Johnson earlier this season (and waived him and then re-signed him after Houston dumped him). Another dynamic pass-catcher would make this offense even scarier, especially since Jackson was throwing to receivers Tylan Wallace, Anthony Miller and Steven Sims at various points on Sunday (that trio combined for three receptions while Bateman produced four for 66 yards). This feels like nitpicking because the Ravens are strong and should be even better if they get another year under Monken. But they also fell short of their Super Bowl goal yet again. Making that offense even more explosive sounds like a good way to improve their chances next season.
Top offseason need: Improving the offensive line.
This one is a major no-brainer. The most obvious difference between last season’s Texans and this year’s group was their ability to protect quarterback C.J. Stroud. He produced one of the best rookie seasons ever by a signal-caller in 2023, when he was sacked just 38 times. Opposing defenses dropped him 52 times this season, and that clearly was a factor in how he performed (along with season-ending knee injuries to wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell). Stroud saw a decline in his passing yards (273.9 per game to 219.2) and touchdowns (23 to 20) while his interceptions increased dramatically (five to 12). The irony of all this is that the Texans have invested heavily in the offensive line. Left tackle Laremy Tunsil is one of the highest-paid players at his position, and the team also has two first-round picks (tackle Tytus Howard and guard Kenyon Green) and two second-round picks (tackle Blake Fisher and center/guard Juice Scruggs) on that unit. The major area of need is along the interior, where Howard had to move from tackle to guard to replace Green. If the performance of the unit wasn’t bad enough, Texans general manager Nick Caserio isn’t exactly flush with cash to spread around in free agency. Houston currently is projected to have just over $6 million in cap space, per Over The Cap. That number obviously could change based on personnel moves, but Caserio already has used up most of the benefits of having Stroud on a rookie deal. Improving the line won’t be an easy process, but it’s critical to this team becoming a serious championship contender again.
Top offseason need: Figuring out the futures of Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp.
This duo has been central to the Rams’ success over the last few years -- and their Super Bowl LVI win -- but there are legitimate questions about both as the offseason nears. Stafford told reporters he would “take some time to think about” his future but also said “it sure feels like” he has more football in him after Los Angeles’ loss to Philadelphia. That means we should expect ample speculation about his plans for the foreseeable future. The quarterback just finished his 16th season, and it was far from a vintage campaign. He threw for 3,762 yards and 20 touchdowns, which were the lowest numbers he’s produced in those categories when playing a full season. Stafford still has two years left on an extension he signed in 2022 -- and revised last July -- but he’s also at a point in his career when it’s fair to wonder if retirement is on his radar. Kupp is a different matter. There were reports that he was on the trade block when the Rams started the season 1-4 but that talk vanished once Los Angeles rebounded. Like Stafford, the 31-year-old Kupp also has been showing his age in recent years. He missed 12 games between 2022 and 2023 and another four this season with an ankle injury (he also hasn’t reached 1,000 yards since leading the league in receptions, yards and touchdowns in 2021). Maybe the Rams re-visit talks about trading Kupp in the offseason. At the very least, they must find a more reliable receiver to pair with Puka Nacua moving forward. The Rams will have plenty of money to spend in free agency, as they are projected to have around $46 million in cap space by Over The Cap. They have to improve an offense that faded down the stretch in the regular season.
