NFL Week 2 picks: Buccaneers upset Texans, Chargers beat Raiders on Monday night

NFL.com editors Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr will predict the winner of every game in the 2025 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their records through Thursday night's game and the rest of their Week 2 NFL picks below.

The lines provided by DraftKings are locked as of 12:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, Sept. 11.

MONDAY. SEPT. 15

Why Tom picked the Buccaneers: This could be a Week 2 trap. Did the Bucs' narrow escape in Atlanta artificially inflate our sense of how close they are to waltzing to another NFC South title? Did the Texans' flat first showing make it too easy to pin them as repeat underachievers? Tampa's offense needed a minute to get going against the Falcons -- and on Monday, the difficulty level will ratchet up for Baker Mayfield and Co., with Houston studs Will Anderson, Danielle Hunter and Derek Stingley Jr. added to the mix. I also have a nagging sense that the step down from the Rams' D to Todd Bowles' work-in-progress unit might make it easier for C.J. Stroud and Houston's offense to get right. The logical choice feels like picking the Texans to grind out a low-scoring victory at home. But there's still some hard reasoning to be found in this gut call: If I have to choose between Houston figuring it out on the fly while also dealing with multiple injuries on offense or Mayfield making enough prime-time magic to pull off another squeaker, I'm rolling with the more battle-tested vet and his exciting new colleague.

Why Brooke picked the Chargers: Pete Carroll vs. Jim Harbaugh? You already know what we're signing up for: punishing run games with efficient QB play sprinkled in, strong defense and a one-score game. The top two RBs taken in this year's draft, Las Vegas' Ashton Jeanty and Los Angeles' Omarion Hampton, will garner a lot of attention Monday night after their mediocre debuts. Geno Smith proved last week that this year's Raiders are a much different bunch than the group we saw in 2024, as he threw for 362 yards in a road win over the Patriots. Going toe-to-toe with Justin Herbert, who shined in the season-opening win over the Chiefs, is a tall task. It'll be an even taller task if all-world tight end Brock Bowers (knee) can't go. I feel good about the direction in which the Raiders are trending, but they're arguably a step -- or two -- behind the Chargers right now. Las Vegas won't go away lightly, but give me L.A. in a close one that's decided on the final drive.

SUNDAY'S GAMES

Why Gennaro picked the Ravens: Cleveland dropped its home opener to Cincinnati, but don't blame the defense for the 17-16 setback. With game-wrecker extraordinaire Myles Garrett doing his thing up front and second-round rookie Carson Schwesinger making plays all over the field, the Browns held the Bengals to 141 total yards, including just 7(!) in the second half. What are the chances Cleveland duplicates this inspired defensive effort against another high-powered divisional foe on Sunday? Slim, meet none. Lamar Jackson and Co. just hit the road and served up a 40-burger to a Super Bowl contender … but they still suffered a humiliating defeat, becoming the first team in NFL history to lose a game in regulation after leading by 15-plus points with under four minutes remaining. That's doubly bad for Cleveland, as the Browns aren't just running into a buzzsaw, but one that's fully motivated to put last week's stunning collapse in the rearview. So, while I expect Cleveland to put up more of a fight than some might anticipate -- this is a divisional game, after all, and the Browns have beaten the Ravens in four of their past seven meetings -- I'll be floored if Baltimore falls to 0-2 with a loss in its home opener. Joe Flacco's first game back in Charm City is a nice story, but I just can't see it having a happy ending.

Why Ali picked the Jaguars: Don't let their 1-0 record fool you: The Bengals' perennial early-season woes have resurfaced in 2025. Last weekend, Joe Burrow & Co. produced half as many first downs, roughly one-third as many net passing yards and less than half as many total net yards as the Joe Flacco-led Browns. Yikes. And it's not like Cincinnati's defense fared much better, either: The Bengals were the only team in Week 1 that didn't register a QB pressure by halftime. (Thank goodness for second-half adjustments!) That kind of overall execution likely won't fly against a Jacksonville squad featuring a pair of first-class wideouts, a seemingly rejuvenated Travis Etienne and an athletic QB still in his mid-20s. Although the Jags certainly weren't flawless last weekend (11 penalties), they still had little trouble dispatching the Panthers. If they start hot again (scored on four of their first five possessions), and the Bengals play to their reputation (Burrow is 1-4 as a pro in home openers), Cincinnati could suffer yet another September stunner. Hate to pick against Joe, but neither team did anything in Week 1 to move me off my prediction from a few weeks ago. Jags improve to 2-0 for the first time in the Trevor Lawrence era and just the third time in the past 20 seasons.

Why Brooke picked the Cowboys: This division game between the winless Giants and Cowboys might hold extra meaning: Since 1990, teams that start 0-2 have made the playoffs 12.2 percent of the time, while teams that start 1-1 have made the postseason in 41.6 percent of instances, according to NFL Research. The Cowboys almost weren't facing this situation, but CeeDee Lamb's four drops(!) proved costly against the defending Super Bowl champs in the opener. Drops shouldn't plague Lamb moving forward, to be sure, and I'd expect to see plenty of big plays from the Cowboys star on Sunday. The same goes for Malik Nabers, who is rightfully frustrated after the Giants' offense lacked any sort of juice last time out. I'm also keeping a close eye on what occurs in the trenches. New York's defense surprisingly had one of the lowest QB pressure rates in Week 1, while Dallas' O-line allowed pressure on more than one-third of Dak Prescott's dropbacks, per Next Gen Stats. The G-Men also allowed the second-most rushing yards (220) last week. That unit must improve and keep Dallas on its heels to help keep New York competitive because the little trust I have in Russell Wilson is waning. (I feel you, Brian Daboll.) Russ is 0-6 over his last six starts (five coming with Pittsburgh last season) and produced this line in last week's loss: 17-of-37 for 168 pass yards with no touchdowns and 59.3 passer rating. Gah.

Why Ali picked the Lions: The last time these two teams met at Ford Field, on Thanksgiving Day 2024, the Bears mismanaged a potential game-winning drive so badly (one of several late-game collapses last season), then-head coach Matt Eberflus lost his job the very next day. As the Lions' offensive coordinator, Ben Johnson had a front-row seat for that holiday debacle. As the Bears' new head coach, Johnson is now authoring his own crunch-time miscues. Monday night's meltdown, in which Minnesota scored 21 unanswered to overcome a double-digit fourth-quarter deficit, has the Chicago fan base questioning both its coach and QB. But let's take a deep breath, fellow Bears fans. After all, one game doesn't (shouldn't) define a career. In the same vein, though, one week might not be enough time for Johnson and Caleb Williams to cure what ails Chicago’s offense. I know Detroit is also reeling following its miserable Week 1 at Lambeau, but I've seen Dan Campbell rally his crew after an L before. In fact, per NFL Research, the Lions are the only team that hasn't lost back-to-back regular-season games since 2023 and are 11-4 after a loss since 2022 (fourth-best). The wins will come for this Bears team -- just maybe not this weekend.

Why Dan picked the Patriots: It's worth noting the Patriots have been horrible during their visits to South Beach this decade. New England has dropped its last five in Miami, losing by an average of 13 points in those games. Yet, I can't overlook what former Giants castoff Daniel Jones and the Colts did to the Dolphins last week, making Mike McDaniel's crew look like it didn't belong on the same field. Obviously, the Pats have their own issues to address, particularly on offense, but if Mike Vrabel and Josh McDaniels can't put together a plan that allows them to be the aggressors against a team that's clearly on the ropes, the problems in New England are larger than I imagined. Perhaps Tua Tagovailoa bounces back from a dreadful 2025 debut and a talented pass rush shows some life against a vulnerable Pats offensive line. It's a plausible scenario, albeit one that feels unlikely right now. Until I see the Dolphins wake up, I can't pick them to win.

Why Gennaro picked the 49ers: San Francisco suffered a brutal Super Bowl hangover last year, with the injury bug playing a central role in the downturn. Unfortunately, that insatiable pest is right back at it, ravaging the 49ers' offense. LT Trent Williams and WR Jauan Jennings had health issues in the season-opening win at Seattle, though it appears both avoided a significant setback. The same cannot be said of George Kittle and Brock Purdy; the Pro Bowl tight end's out at least four games while the 265 million dollar quarterback could miss the next 2-5 contests, per NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport. (EDITOR'S UPDATE: 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan confirmed on Friday that Purdy will be inactive Sunday.) Can the Niners weather this early storm to open the season with a second straight road victory? I say YES! And it's not because of some strongly held belief in backup QB Mac Jones -- though, frankly, you could do worse than a 27-year-old former first-rounder with 49 NFL starts over the past four years. My confidence revolves around RB Christian McCaffrey and DE Nick Bosa, two superstars who dealt with injuries last season but returned to form last week. I envision McCaffrey running circles around New Orleans' aging defense while Bosa blows right through an offensive line that has health concerns of its own.

Why Tom picked the Bills: I can see the Jets' path to a potential upset, if they are able to catch the Bills sleeping a little coming off their season-opening mega-comeback. Can I see a path to actually picking the Jets here, though? That's tougher, and not just because their own adrenaline levels might still be subsiding after putting together their most inspiring performance in recent memory. Yes, Justin Fields and Co. provided some real proof in their close loss to the Steelers that things really will be different under Aaron Glenn. They are also still in the "making headlines with dramatically timed cuts" phase of the rebuilding life cycle. And we all know where Buffalo stands. Would I really base my decision on a few minutes of possession in a game that took place last week? Well ... yes, when said minutes are of the potentially season-defining variety. If 40 points wasn't enough for Lamar Jackson to hold off Josh Allen, how many would Fields have to score to feel safe? 50? 75? New York could put up a strong fight -- but it will end in a nice, normal win for the Bills.

Why Brooke picked the Steelers: From one revenge game to another. This time it's DK Metcalf facing his former team. Also facing a familiar foe is Mike Macdonald, who went 1-3 against the Steelers as Baltimore's DC in 2022 and '23. He'll undoubtedly have his team prepared for this tough road environment. After all, the Seahawks won seven of their eight games outside of Seattle a year ago. We'll see each team's strength (well, after one week) go head-to-head when the Pittsburgh offense and Seattle defense take the field. Seattle recorded a league-high 60.5 QB pressure percentage in Week 1, per Next Gen Stats, but it will need to turn that pressure into sacks -- something it wasn't able to do against San Francisco. Keeping Aaron Rodgers uncomfortable and forcing him away from easy play-action gains is key. In Week 1, the 41-year-old quarterback went 8-for-10 for 71 pass yards and three TDs off play action, while the Seahawks have allowed a 74.7 completion percentage and 13 scores on such plays since 2024, both worst in the NFL. As for Sam Darnold and Co., they must take advantage of a reeling Steelers defense that has allowed an average of 381.9 yards over its last eight games, including 394 to the Jets in Week 1. This feels like a one-score game if Rodgers comes back down to earth. If he does continue to find the fountain of youth, though, it could be a blowout. Either way, I'm waving the Terrible Towel.

Why Ali picked the Rams: Tough break for Cam Ward. Dude kicks off his NFL career against a nasty Broncos defense, taking six sacks and getting pressured on 50 percent of his dropbacks, then has to face a relentless Rams front just seven days later. L.A. did a number on the Texans last weekend, pitching a shutout after the break and keeping them out of the end zone for the entire 60. Although the Rams haven't been a blitz-heavy team under Chris Shula, I suspect the second-year defensive coordinator might add some heat to his play sheet after studying the Titans-Broncos film: Ward was 0-of-6 passing with four sacks against extra pressure in Denver. I think there was a lot to like from Tennessee in the season opener, from the team's stout defensive effort to Ward's moxie in key moments. But I believe the Rams are simply in a different class right now.

Why Tom picked the Cardinals: Last December's overtime win against Arizona was one of the actual Ws sprinkled in among a run of positive losses that helped power the good vibes that coalesced around the Panthers. One hint that Bryce Young and Dave Canales still have plenty of work to do, though, is that at this point in time, in September of 2025, they don't feel like a lock to compete wire-to-wire against a Cardinals squad that is itself on the fringes of contention (and, apparently, has a habit of losing this matchup?). Young figures to present a tougher test for Jonathan Gannon's defense than Spencer Rattler did last week, but the flip side of that equation does not bode so well for Carolina, which pressured Trevor Lawrence a mere six times in Week 1. After fighting off a stomach bug and the Saints, Kyler Murray should have room to work while securing Gannon's first 2-0 start as a head coach.

Why Gennaro picked the Broncos: While these two teams both won last week, their respective paths to 1-0 couldn't have been more different. Denver was an offseason darling, but the Broncos underwhelmed in the opener with a one-score win over the lowly Titans. Conversely, Indianapolis was an offseason punchline, but the Colts opened the new campaign in style, mollywhopping the Dolphins. Honestly, Indy's 33-8 tour de force was one of the most surprising results of the season's first Sunday. But that's the thing about Week 1: It's often a liar. And the truth comes out in Week 2. As someone who predicted in late August that Denver would end Kansas City's eternal reign over the AFC West, I remain quite bullish on Sean Payton's well-rounded club. Bo Nix's September sloppiness was back last Sunday, but I don't foresee the second-year pro stumbling through the entire opening month like he did as a rookie. Meanwhile, Denver's defense actually did its job last week, keeping Tennessee out of the end zone while yielding just 133 total yards and two third-down conversions on 14 attempts. Do we really think Daniel Jones will get the best of this loaded unit? I know he was spectacular in his Colts debut, but again, Week 1 is a minefield of deceit. Sometimes the best thing to remember is that you need to forget.

Why Brooke picked the Chiefs: Some of the issues we saw from the Chiefs in Super Bowl LIX didn't go away in the offseason. In the season-opening loss to the Chargers, the offensive line struggled royally -- both with penalties and protecting Patrick Mahomes. That won't cut it against the Eagles, especially with Jalen Carter returning to the lineup -- save for another boneheaded move. On paper, the Chiefs might have very few advantages over the Eagles -- quarterback and run defense, among them -- but there are several historical aspects I'm leaning into with this pick:

• The Chiefs have never started 0-2 in the Mahomes era.
• Mahomes has never lost three straight games in his NFL career (including playoffs).
• Mahomes is 4-0 in his career following back-to-back losses (including playoffs).
• Mahomes is 19-4 in the game after a loss in his career.

I could be completely wrong, but I'm willing to die on the Mahomes hill for a while longer.

Why Dan picked the Vikings: Michael Penix Jr. has had some tough luck in the early going of his NFL career, losing his last three starts -- two in overtime -- despite leading drives to put the Falcons in position to tie the game in the last two minutes of regulation in all three contests. I'm just not sure his luck will change against Brian Flores' defense in Minnesota. If J.J. McCarthy has indeed put his shaky start to Week 1 completely behind him, the game could boil down to how Penix handles the blitz. No team brings extra rushers at a higher rate than the Vikings since Flores was hired before the start of the 2023 season (45.7%). Penix fared well against the Buccaneers' blitz in last week’s loss, but his performance in those situations since entering the league (yes, it's a small sample size) has left something to be desired (1:1 TD-INT ratio, 58.3% completions, 79.8 rating on 48 dropbacks). Now, if big-time disruptor Andrew Van Ginkel (concussion protocol) doesn't play, that would be a help to Atlanta's cause. Flores is about as good as it gets when it comes to scheming up pressure, though.

THURSDAY'S GAME

Why Dan picked the Packers: I don't like picking against Jayden Daniels, who will not be intimidated by the tall task of visiting Lambeau Field to face a juiced-up pass rush on a short week. It's also uncomfortable to not be siding with a team that ran for 220 yards in the opener. But if there is any shock to the system for Dan Quinn's squad in this game, I expect it to be on defense. The Packers' offensive line is not going to let the Commanders tee off on the quarterback once again after Washington posted 22 pressures (second-most in the league) against the lowly Giants in Week 1. From there, the onus will be on Jordan Love. Will we see the guy who has gone eight straight regular-season starts without throwing an interception or the one who threw three picks in the playoff loss to the Eagles? I'm cautiously expecting the former against a team that had just seven INTs last season (tied for fourth-fewest) and did not force a turnover last week.

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