NFL picks: Will Bills end Chiefs' three-peat bid? Commanders or Eagles to rep NFC in Super Bowl?

NFL.com editors Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr will predict every game of the 2024 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their NFL picks for Championship Sunday.

NOTE: The lines provided by DraftKings are current as of 11:30 a.m. ET on Thursday, Jan. 23.

Why Tom picked the Commanders: Rewatching Washington's comeback win over Philadelphia in Week 16, I was reminded of how blithely I picked against Jayden Daniels that week, then again ahead of each increasingly unlikely playoff upset. Every time, I incorrectly assumed Daniels and his band of plucky odds-defiers would run smack into the hard reality of playing against superior opponents. Instead, the party rolled on.

The NFC Championship Game offers yet another chance to doubt the Commanders, to almost feel safe and cozy about predicting that Washington will finally succumb to a favored playoff foe. The Eagles have a lot going for them. Their defense, which ranked first in the NFL in yards allowed in the regular season, has helped power both their playoff wins so far and should offer much more resistance than the injury-hampered Lions group Washington steamrolled last Saturday. Jalen Carter is coming off a career effort (two sacks, two passes defensed and a huge forced fumble) in the Divisional Round, and he figures to be even tougher for the Commanders to slow without right guard Sam Cosmi, who suffered a torn ACL against Detroit. Then there is the somewhat-fluky nature of the most recent entry in this matchup; if the Eagles didn't have to turn to backup QB Kenny Pickett, there's a good chance they would have preserved their early grip on the game and swept the regular-season series. And Philadelphia strikes me as the kind of team that could beat the same opponent three times in a row. Thinking about Saquon Barkley bulldozing a Washington D that gave up 137.5 rushing yards per game in 2024 (including 296 to Barkley) makes it extra tempting to go with what is ostensibly the most logical outcome: an Eagles win at home.

But Jayden Daniels is the Destroyer of Logical Outcomes. He's also not actually working magic. As implausible as some of his wins were, you can always trace a path to victory that conformed to the laws of space and time, even if he had to perform some jaw-dropping acts of heroism to reveal it. And there is a real way forward in Philadelphia, too. The Eagles have been outgained by their opponents in both playoff games. If the Commanders' defense -- which has held opposing QBs to a passer rating of 81.4 in the postseason so far -- can hold Philly down long enough, Daniels and Terry McLaurin could in turn put Vic Fangio's unit on its heels a bit, echoing the way Week 16 played out. This scenario comes more fully into focus if Jalen Hurts and/or Quinyon Mitchell end up dealing with any lingering effects of injuries they suffered on Sunday.

Daniels could also just come out dealing, regardless of everything I wrote above, and simply dazzle his way into the Super Bowl. Ultimately, I'm going with my gut, which I often regret -- but I'd much rather pick with one the NFL's brightest young talents than bank on someone figuring out how to dim his star.

Why Gennaro picked the Bills: Because I'm insane. At least according to a trite quotation often misattributed to Albert Einstein: The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. Kansas City just keeps doing the same thing over and over again, and here I am expecting a different result.

Playing in their seventh consecutive AFC Championship Game, the Chiefs are eyeing a fifth Super Bowl appearance in six seasons. Over the past 13 months, Kansas City's starters have lost one game. Of course, that lone setback came against these Bills. The Chiefs' mid-November defeat at Buffalo wasn't surprising, either, considering the Bills were favored in the game. Not to mention, the victory improved Josh Allen's regular-season record against Patrick Mahomes to 4-1. But it's a different story in the playoffs, where Mahomes boasts a perfect 3-0 mark in the QB duel. So, what makes me believe Allen will finally slay his Chief tormentor in the postseason? Well, speaking of insanity ...

I think the Bills can out-Chief the Chiefs.

Unlike Andy Reid's early teams with Mahomes under center, the contemporary Chiefs don't overwhelm opponents with shock and awe. These days, Kansas City is more boringly effective, as Mahomes himself underscored after last Saturday's 23-14 win over Houston: "Everybody's winners on this team, and I think that's what makes us special. So, it doesn't always have to be an offensive explosion, it doesn't always have to be the defense locking it down -- it's just, who can find a way to get a win and how can we do that?" These Chiefs want to establish the run, take care of the football and make splash plays on defense. The Bills can do that -- only better! Buffalo finished the regular season with the NFL's ninth-best rushing attack (131.2 yards per game), while Kansas City ranked 22nd (105.3 ypg). The Bills committed the fewest turnovers in the league (eight); the Chiefs tied for fourth-fewest (14). Defensively, the teams had the exact same sack total (39), but Buffalo produced a dozen more takeaways (32-20).

I know what you're thinking: Kansas City has the ultimate trump card in the ultimate winner. That's fair. Mahomes' ability to shapeshift -- and play whatever style is necessary to win any given matchup -- is the kind of quarterbacking mastery that typically separates him from other elites at the position. But this season, it sure seems like Buffalo's signal-caller is closing that gap. Gone are the days of superfluous hero ball from No. 17. Shoot, the Bills just beat a dynamic Ravens team with Allen totaling 147 yards of offense. This version of Allen doesn't force things, having slashed his interception total from a career-high 18 last season to a career-low six in this campaign. This version of Allen, like Mahomes, lets the game come to him.

Now, Buffalo's been better at home than on the road this season, so you can't overlook the challenge of winning in the unfriendly confines of Arrowhead Stadium. As you can deduce from my predicted score above, I'm not here to tell you this is going to be easy. But neither is winning a ninth consecutive playoff game. That's the task on tap for Kansas City in its quest for an unprecedented Super Bowl three-peat. Call me crazy, but I say the Chiefs fall short in that endeavor.

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