NFL playoff predictions: Picking 8 division winners, 6 wild-card teams at midpoint of 2024 season

UNANIMOUS PICK

Viewed as a highly competitive three-team race at the start of the campaign, the AFC East has pretty much been called for the Bills after nine weeks. With a season sweep of the third-placed Dolphins (2-6) and a four-game lead over the second-placed Jets (plus a head-to-head advantage), Buffalo's division win probability sits at a dominant 96 percent. But New York (3-6) still has an outside chance of claiming its first AFC East crown in more than a decade thanks to the back half of both teams' schedules. Beginning in mid-November, the Bills kick off a four-game sequence against teams currently at .500 or better (Chiefs, 49ers, at Rams, at Lions), with the second leg of their season series with the Jets still to come. Gang Green, meanwhile, has the fifth-easiest strength of schedule remaining in the league (.435), paving the way for a possible second-half run. But a lot would have to go just right (or wrong, depending on your POV) for their Week 17 date in Buffalo to have division implications.

(25 votes: Abdoo, Andrade, Baca, Battista, Bhanpuri, Blair, Carr, Cersosimo, Chadiha, Edholm, Filice, Florio, Gonzales, Gordon, Grant, Koplowitz-Fleming, Kownack, Mariucci, Okada, Parr, Patra, Reuter, Ross, Shook, Zierlein)

2) Pittsburgh Steelers (+200) | 2 votes: Jones-Drew, Magdziuk.

The preseason favorite is now the midseason favorite despite entering the halfway point in second place. Although a (near) unanimous selection to win the division, Baltimore's back-to-back bid is anything but a sure thing. The Ravens have an unforgiving second-half schedule (their next four opponents are a combined 21-8) and sit at 3-3 in the conference and 0-1 in the division. But as challenging as their road appears, Pittsburgh's looks that much worse. The Steelers (6-2) have the third most difficult schedule remaining in the NFL (.570), with all six of their division games still to go, and trips to Washington and Philadelphia on the calendar, as well. They also will host the Chiefs on Christmas -- just four days after their second meeting with Baltimore. By holding off the Ravens -- and the projected seventh-seed Bengals (4-5) -- the Steelers would claim a division-best 10th AFC North title since 2002's realignment. Only one voter predicted that outcome before the season began.

UNANIMOUS PICK

Another unanimous winner, the Texans hold a two-game advantage -- and 2-0 head-to-head record -- over the second-placed Colts (4-5). But injuries are mounting for DeMeco Ryans' group, and matchups with the Lions, Chiefs and Ravens could put a dent in Houston's lead. Indy, on the other hand, has the 28th-ranked SOS remaining (.429), with four of its final five games against teams that are currently 2-6 or worse. While the door isn't closed on the Colts (4-5) capturing the division crown -- or the Jags (2-7) and Titans (2-6), for the matter -- the NGS playoff probability model projects a Texans repeat in 91 percent of simulations.

UNANIMOUS PICK

The Chiefs, who were the only unanimous division winner predicted at the start of the season, enter the midway point as the NFL's only undefeated team. They're on the fast track to their ninth consecutive AFC West title, holding a three-game edge over Los Angeles (5-3), whom they've already beaten once this season. Although both the Chargers and Broncos are currently holding wild-card spots, only the Bolts are predicted to maintain their place in the AFC playoff picture by the end of the season. Among the factors working against Denver's playoff hopes: the league's fourth-hardest SOS remaining (.565), which includes two games against Kansas City.

(19 votes: Abdoo, Andrade, Baca, Battista, Bhanpuri, Carr, Chadiha, Filice, Grant, Gonzales, Gordon, Jones-Drew, Magdziuk, Mariucci, Okada, Parr, Patra, Shook, Zierlein)

2) Washington Commanders (+110) | 8 votes: Blair, Cersosimo, Edholm, Florio, Koplowitz-Fleming, Kownack, Reuter, Ross.

Off to the franchise's best start in nearly 30 years, Washington (7-2) finds itself in pole position in the current NFC East standings. However, the overwhelming majority of our analysts see the hard-charging Eagles overtaking the Commanders by season's end, with Washington relegated to the No. 5 seed. With both head-to-head matchups still to go, and similarly difficult second-half slates, this race has the potential to see-saw for the next two months. It's worth noting that both teams rank bottom-three in SOS through the first nine weeks of the season, so how they each fare against tougher competition down the stretch might not only decide the division, but whether the runner-up is even able to clinch a wild-card spot.

UNANIMOUS PICK

The Lions are the best team in the NFL's best division, building a comfortable lead in the North (though Dan Campbell certainly wouldn't categorize it as such) in part by beating the Vikings and Packers on their own turfs. They are the only team in the league to rank top five in scoring offense and defense, blowing away the field in point differential per game (13.8 -- nearly four points better than second-placed Buffalo). With half a season to play, the Packers and Vikings (and Bears, technically) are still in play for the division title. But the majority of our analysts see Green Bay and Minnesota punching their postseason ticket as wild cards.

If these playoff predictions hold, and the NFC North and AFC North both send three reps to the tournament, it would mark the first time since 2007 that two divisions accounted for six or more playoff teams in one season.

UNANIMOUS PICK

The Falcons have so far followed through with our analysts' preseason expectations, reaching the halfway mark with a clear edge in the South. They hold a two-game lead over the second-placed Bucs, with the head-to-head tiebreaker already locked in, as well as a perfect 4-0 mark in the division. Their spot at the top, though firm, hasn't come easy. Seven of Atlanta's nine games have been decided by one score, and half of their wins have required a fourth-quarter comeback. And while they have the sixth easiest SOS remaining (.443), they also hit the road for five of their final eight games -- including trips to Denver, Minnesota and Washington.

The Bucs' chances of overtaking Atlanta in the South are unquestionably slim, but their second-half schedule creates a narrow opening for a playoff run: five of their final seven games are against teams currently sporting 2-7 records. In fact, after their Week 11 bye (which is when they hope to get Mike Evans back), the Bucs have the easiest remaining schedule in the league (.295).

T-1) San Francisco 49ers: 12 votes: Abdoo, Battista, Chadiha, Gordon, Grant, Kownack, Magdziuk, Parr, Patra, Reuter, Shook, Zierlein. 

T-1) Los Angeles Rams: 12 votes: Andrade, Baca, Bhanpuri, Carr, Cersosimo, Filice, Florio, Gonzales, Jones-Drew, Koplowitz-Fleming, Mariucci, Okada.

3) Arizona Cardinals (+175) | 3 votes: Blair, Edholm, Ross. 

Despite being in first place, with a perfect division record (including H2H wins over the Rams and 49ers) and the league's third-easiest SOS remaining (.420), the Cardinals (5-4) received just three votes to finish the regular season as NFC West champs. The 49ers, who were the clear favorite among voters back in August, now find themselves co-headliners, with the Rams' three-game win streak -- fueled by the return of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua -- resulting in their vote total doubling since the start of the campaign. San Francisco will likely need Christian McCaffrey to hit the ground running upon his return if it's to win the West for a third consecutive year (or qualify for the postseason at all). Their grueling second-half schedule includes tilts at Tampa Bay, Green Bay and Buffalo, plus a date with Detroit to close out December.